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Downsizing: the new growth paradigm?
John Burke
Posted: 10 January 2012 10:09:37(UTC)
#1

Joined: 10/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3

Just how long will this recession/downturn/non-growth scenario actually last?

With the incomprehensible amounts of government debt, corporate/banking debt in greater Europe, austerity measures and reductions in spending programmes how can anything but recession be the outcome?

Can the creation of 489 bn Euros by the ECB actually stems the 'contagion' or will much more be needed? Has the US and UK's quantative easing programmes started a 'currency war' against the Euro which will ultimately have no winners?

And what would be the effect on commercial property values (those assets supporting some of these debts) if this situation should prevail? Would all those expensive corporate office rents/values in London be ripe for 'downsizing' and office mobility towards smaller units?

Will austerity hit the City of London?
Simon Taylor
Posted: 10 January 2012 13:22:51(UTC)
#2

Joined: 19/06/2009(UTC)
Posts: 32

Perhaps a useful clue might come from the experience of Japan which has seen almost two decades of zero interest rates and asset and property deflation.
John Verity
Posted: 10 January 2012 13:43:58(UTC)
#3

Joined: 10/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1

Following on from the previous comment concerning Japan's experience, it seems singularly appropriate to add that this happened despite the fact that the Shin Bullet Train was operating throughout the "lost decades". Can someone please explain how the high speed rail link with Birmingham is expected to galvanise our economy.
John Burke
Posted: 10 January 2012 13:55:53(UTC)
#4

Joined: 10/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3

The Japanese experience is not one to copy but it appears in principle that we could be heading for much the same.

Japan had suffered from high property valuations, and also like the UK is a small island with a relatively large population - thus very high land values. At one point the property asset values of greater Tokyo were greater than the whole of the USA.

So it is still 'unwinding' from these 'valuations' but will London go the same way? Are rising rents and property values sustainable amidst a tightening of credit? Waht happens to banking security if values slide? Is this the unthinkable?
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 10 January 2012 19:59:50(UTC)
#5

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

London is still seen as a desirable location for international financial services businesses despite banker bashing and the 50p marginal income tax rate. How long it will remain so if the political climate is so hostile to economic development and any attempt at growth is moot.

Japan's problems were all self made. The UK today faces a world in which Europe, as well as the UK itself, are determined to create mass unemployment and social upheaval on a scale not seen since the 1930s. We can only hope that the lunatics misgoverning us are returned to the asylum before another war breaks out.
Mark22
Posted: 11 January 2012 07:42:05(UTC)
#6

Joined: 01/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 25

If Japan is the model, then the answer as to when do we start to grow would seem to be "not for several years". To which HS2 is a complete irrelevance. It won't be ready until 2026 and its purpose is just to extend the commuter belt for London further north but keep the northerners away from the continent. If it was meant for anything else then it would link directly into HS1 and allow us to bypass London.
Graham Barlow
Posted: 11 January 2012 10:39:01(UTC)
#7

Joined: 09/03/2009(UTC)
Posts: 203

The High Speed Train is nothing more than a Political expedient to try and galvanise the existing economy. You can currently catch a fast train to Birmingham from London and arrive in little over an hour and a half later. Years ago I regularly travelled up in the morning, Breakfast on the Train, and arrived in good time to do a days work and travel back arriving about 6 pm. We all know that it would be far superior to invest on upgrading the existing structure which is relatively modern at a fraction of the £50 Billion, and use the remainder on any amount of very useful infrastructure projects. It will not make Britain any more efficient, It is a collosal white elephant going pink. The disruption to peoples family life is incalcuable, and it will lead to Political upheaval on a mega scale. The Government is wrong ,and I believe it is a political ploy that will never see the light of day. The populace will in time see it as utter folly in such a small crowded Island.
John Burke
Posted: 11 January 2012 11:23:44(UTC)
#8

Joined: 10/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3

Graham is correct that this a politcal move design to boost morale rather than making total economic sense.
Its a bit of 'keeping up with the Jones's' plus a lump of Keynesian pump priming. However where will the main contrats go to? How much could UK companies expect to win? With us playing a straight bat it means that all work has to go out to tender in Europe.
Therefore this may well benefit Europe rarther than the UK, so back to my original point - when will the recession end?
Graham Barlow
Posted: 11 January 2012 15:10:30(UTC)
#9

Joined: 09/03/2009(UTC)
Posts: 203

A very interesting observation regarding the necessary European compulsory quotation requirement. After the Cross Rail contract and the fiasco of the Bombadier quote, I have no faith in the maximising the benefit to the UK, if the Politicians have got anything to do with it. Siemens must be licking their lips, and could see a way out of their profitability troubles. Incidentally a litlle voice from the inside tells me that the Cross Rail contract is still not yet signed, and all the entreaties to the Govt have fallen on deaf ears, with Cameron adamant that it will not be reassessed, in spite of all the relevant benefits to the UK economy. How does that equate with all this stuff and nonsense. They say politics is a game ,well this is Snakes and Ladders with Britain landing on all the Snakes.
Bob saxton
Posted: 11 January 2012 23:46:04(UTC)
#10

Joined: 04/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 13

One aspect of HS2 that seems to be determinedly ignored is security.

Because of our slavish support and following of the USA and Israel we are creating for ourselves a lot of enemies throughout the world and amongst the rising Muslim community in the UK.
Imagine if the trains bombed in Spain, as a result of Spains involvement in Iraq, had been travelling at 250 mph. The HS2 line is in a lot of open country and would need expensive physical and electronic surveillance which would have to be backed up by a paramilitary security force. Because of the damage that would be caused by a bomb on a high speed train, a level of security would be required comparable with that we currently experience with air travel. In addition to the cost of this security, attendant delays could easily outweigh any advantages that accrue from the high speed.

Bob the electrician
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