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King Lodos
Posted: 31 October 2020 09:50:15(UTC)
#75

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Shetland;135385 wrote:
SimonHughes;135381 wrote:
King Lodos;135379 wrote:
Shetland;135372 wrote:
CGT clearly does not have the same characteristics as cash and therefore can never be described as a cash proxy. Anything which can lose capital value can't be described as a cash proxy.

I understand that CGT will lose less money than other IT's / funds but only because it hasn't made it. That is why CGT compares badly with most general global IT's / Funds


Cash rises and falls in value all the time.. I mentioned Sterling lost well over 9% (more than CGT lost in the March sell-off) on the Brexit vote.

The illusion of cash is only down to the fact we measure things in it .. We could just as well measure in gold or dollars.

CGT(/PNL) could be considered a cash proxy, because it's got similar levels of volatility .. The fact All Weather investing tends to be much better at preserving value than cash over longer periods doesn't mean it couldn't play a similar role .. But with bond yields at zero, I don't think it's clear All Weather funds are going to be able to keep growing capital in the way they have.


KL - When you say that Sterling lost well over 9% in the March sell off, are you saying that the value of sterling, for UK residents, declined by well over 9% or that Sterling lost well over 9% of its value relative to other currencies? I would imagine that imports costing more and exports earning more (in GBP) would to a degree off-set any devaluation.

I have no dog in this fight, I just want clarity.



SimonHughes, quite correct.

£1000 in the bank at the beginning of the March selloff was still £1000 at the end of the March selloff. The same cannot be said of £1000 in CGT there CGT does not have the same characteristics as cash, is not a cash proxy and it is misleading to promote such views.


Imagine if we measured everything in gold .. Just as a convention.

We could say 1oz of gold is still worth 1oz of gold in my gold vault .. Therefore gold is stable, whereas cash is worth 1oz today, 0.95oz tomorrow, etc. so cash is risky.

When the value of cash (say sterling) changes, everything else in the world suddenly gets more or less expensive .. Stocks may appear to go up, gold may appear to go down .. You can still walk down the road and buy eggs for the same price, but that value too will be changing, just a bit more gradually – but ultimately to the same extent, through effects like cost-push inflation.
2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Aminatidi on 31/10/2020(UTC), Tim D on 31/10/2020(UTC)
bédé
Posted: 31 October 2020 09:53:40(UTC)
#87

Joined: 26/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 7,895

Shetland;135383 wrote:
Nonsense
How would anyone know what other people meant ?


By feedback. Easier with spoken words than written. yerknowarramean?

Otherwiswe all communication is meaningless.
Aminatidi
Posted: 31 October 2020 09:54:17(UTC)
#90

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865

Does anyone have a view on the OEIC v IT structure for this kind of thing?

I have my (significant for me) holdings in PNL and CGT so the IT structure some wrapped some unwrapped.

Both intended to be long term but it is notable how a fair bit of the volatility this year appears to be down to the premium/discount loosening and tightening which in turn I guess is down to the DCM of both kicking in?
bédé
Posted: 31 October 2020 10:00:43(UTC)
#92

Joined: 26/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 7,895

Aminatidi;135393 wrote:
Does anyone have a view on the OEIC v IT structure for this kind of thing?


Yes. But not so much the structure as the cost of holding and dealing. Important for my CGT-as-cash-proxy thinking is 1. better return than cash, 2. low volatility. (but not zero), 3. easy access (I have problems with OTPs). I choose CGAR the oeic. Is there an OEIC version of PNL?

Back to "words". My immediate reading of CGT is capital gains tax. But I know what you mean from the context.
SoBo65
Posted: 31 October 2020 10:03:46(UTC)
#91

Joined: 04/04/2020(UTC)
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Aminatidi;135393 wrote:
Does anyone have a view on the OEIC v IT structure for this kind of thing?

I have my (significant for me) holdings in PNL and CGT so the IT structure some wrapped some unwrapped.

Both intended to be long term but it is notable how a fair bit of the volatility this year appears to be down to the premium/discount loosening and tightening which in turn I guess is down to the DCM of both kicking in?



Whilst not a fan of OEIC's always hold IT's (19 currently with only one OEIC Fundsmith), arguably the DCM of an IT requires the same funding as unit redemptions of an OEIC.

Of course with an OEIC you never know the actual trade price at the time of the transaction or the 'skin in the game' of the fund manager.
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King Lodos on 31/10/2020(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 31 October 2020 10:08:15(UTC)
#93

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The volatility caused by discount widening shouldn't be an issue for a long-term holding – other than presenting opportunities to buy cheap .. i.e. if the underlying value hasn't changed, it really doesn't matter whether CGT dipped an extra 5% (even 50%) – it's just down to intra-day liquidity.

The advantage is it presents opportunities to buy at discounts .. The disadvantage is, if you want to rebalance on a dip, you're probably not going to want to free up value from an IT on a temporary discount.

I think the difference between CGAR and CGT, or TT and PNL, is going to come down to how they handle scale .. The biggest threat to fund performance is often size – the better it does, the more money flows in .. DCM opens ITs to that same risk .. I think the question is whether it's easier to hard-close an OEIC (as CG have done before) when it gets too large, or halt DCM and let the premium go up? .. As a strategy like CGT gets larger, the impact of individual IT trades and opportunities gets smaller .. CGAR seems to be an experiment with more liquid/scalable versions of the strategy .. In principle, ITs are probably more sensible long-long-term holdings, because of the extra flexibility and fewer liquidity issues

11 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
bédé on 31/10/2020(UTC), Apostate on 31/10/2020(UTC), SoBo65 on 31/10/2020(UTC), Tim D on 31/10/2020(UTC), Monty Claret on 31/10/2020(UTC), Sara G on 31/10/2020(UTC), Aminatidi on 31/10/2020(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 31/10/2020(UTC), Lindisfarne on 31/10/2020(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 31/10/2020(UTC), Jesse M on 25/02/2022(UTC)
bédé
Posted: 31 October 2020 10:18:26(UTC)
#94

Joined: 26/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 7,895

I sold some CGAR at ca 1600h on 26th, believing the pricing time was 1700h. The contract note not received until pm 29th, dated 28th 1700h. (AJBell)

A good enough reason, psychologically, to be 98% ITs.

CGAR is my only OEIC, used for mopping up divvies and, ..... wait for it ...wait for it ... as a cash proxy.
2 users thanked bédé for this post.
Tim D on 31/10/2020(UTC), King Lodos on 31/10/2020(UTC)
mdss68
Posted: 31 October 2020 11:18:44(UTC)
#95

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bédé;135397 wrote:
I sold some CGAR at ca 1600h on 26th, believing the pricing time was 1700h. The contract note not received until pm 29th, dated 28th 1700h. (AJBell)

A good enough reason, psychologically, to be 98% ITs.

CGAR is my only OEIC, used for mopping up divvies and, ..... wait for it ...wait for it ... as a cash proxy.


CG AR is domiciled in Ireland, takes a little longer to complete than a UK domiciled Fund would (in general, I'm sure there are exceptions).

On the buying in side this also takes 2 days via HL, and (to my mild annoyance) I've yet to actually get my latest buy at precisely the day's price, I assume there's a currency conversion getting thrown in for good measure (if anyone knows a better explanation I'm all ears?).


@Aminatidi ....CG AR as KL says is the scalable version, more designed to appeal to the Institution that wants to park £500m than me wanting to park my monthly divi's etc. Think back to Woodford, what finally killed him was Kent County Council wanting 250m back in one fell swoop. While KCC were quite right to assume they could simply sell their units, it was the underlying liquidity of Woodford's fund itself that became the issue. CG AR aim to avoid any such nonsense by holding more in the way of liquid (hopefully) ETF's and less in illiquid (definitely maybe) IT's and so on. If a large holder wants their money back, Mr Spiller will be able to sell assets easily into the market to meet said redemption, contra Neil Woodford, who simply collapsed because there wasn't a cat in hell's chance the open market was going to snap up what he was selling! Spiller needs to avoid at least some of the sort of less liquid assets that make up a rump of CGT, where the different structure allows him not to need to sell the assets themselves to meet redemptions, we just sell our CGT shares if we want our cash.

It was Fundsmith V Woodford that really brought the point home, Terry reckoned he could liquidate Fundsmith in a matter of hours if needed. Woodford on the other hand I seem to remember was measured not in hours, but in years, literally. If you're an Institutional Investor, this difference really matters, the flip side imho being that in return, the Institutions will be "stickier" investors, less prone to panic selling.

I do recall reading that CG AR actually had money inflows during the worst of this year, and as they've now passed an apparently important milestone of 3 yrs existence, the theory should now be that CG AR will grow more in size as many wouldn't take positions until a proven track record was established.


10 users thanked mdss68 for this post.
Monty Claret on 31/10/2020(UTC), Sara G on 31/10/2020(UTC), SimonHughes on 31/10/2020(UTC), Aminatidi on 31/10/2020(UTC), King Lodos on 31/10/2020(UTC), bédé on 31/10/2020(UTC), Tim D on 31/10/2020(UTC), Lindisfarne on 31/10/2020(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 31/10/2020(UTC), Jesse M on 25/02/2022(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 31 October 2020 11:36:48(UTC)
#59

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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Shetland;135372 wrote:
CGT clearly does not have the same characteristics as cash and therefore can never be described as a cash proxy. Anything which can lose capital value can't be described as a cash proxy.


Personally I don't like/wouldn't use the "cash proxy" name for it either. But I'm sure these wealth preservation funds have come up in threads here with titles like "cash alternative" or "cash substitute"... here's one: https://moneyforums.city...or-cash--or-better.aspx . It all depends what balance of risk/reward people are comfortable with really, and if on balance they find CGT more attractive than sitting on cash - for them - then why shouldn't they?

Shetland;135372 wrote:
I understand that CGT will lose less money than other IT's / funds but only because it hasn't made it. That is why CGT compares badly with most general global IT's / Funds


Suspect anyone who thinks that isn't looking at a long enough timescale with a couple of proper crashes. Here's CGT vs IT Global average and the first 3 big global generalist trusts I thought of since 1995 (trustnet limit):

CGT vs IT Global

The 10 year numbers underneath are all from the last decade's raging bull market and could easily lead performance chasing gung-ho investors to assume all-in-on-equities is the only way to go. But the chart tells a different story: look at the lines around 2001 & 2008 and CGT is flat while the global trusts are reduced to a pile of smoking wreckage... a major setback for them, and reinforcing the point that not losing money in the bad times can be as good a route to long term prosperity as coining it in the good.

Note a couple of other lines on the chart though:

- PNL hasn't done nearly as well over the period... maybe something to do with Troy not taking management over till later? Not sure what basis it used to be run on or whether it's always been a "permabear", but performance has been similar to CGT in the last decade and they certainly seem to be trying to achieve similar things these days.

- "IT Flexible Investment" (which CGT and PNL are in) as a whole has been pretty terrible... so possibly focussing on CGT is just cherry picking the trust in that sector which has gotten most lucky... like picking SMT out of IT Global (which would smash everything else flat if I added it to the chart). Don't know enough about the other peculiar odd-bod trusts in that "flexible" sector to know whether they're really in any way comparable to CGT/PNL though.
5 users thanked Tim D for this post.
King Lodos on 31/10/2020(UTC), bédé on 31/10/2020(UTC), Lindisfarne on 31/10/2020(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 31/10/2020(UTC), Jesse M on 25/02/2022(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 31 October 2020 11:41:53(UTC)
#84

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bédé;135380 wrote:
I call my own investment style: adventurous. Some call it: aggressive. A big gap, to me, in meaning.


My homegrown portfolio-processing software used to categorize some holdings as "Aggressive"... I replaced it with "Bold". Partly because it just seemed to fit the intent of the holdings better. Partly because it literally fit into the limited space in the output columns better.
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bédé on 31/10/2020(UTC)
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