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Economic Growth-Are lunatics running the economy?
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 22 May 2012 23:14:27(UTC)
#21

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I agree that we need a large redistribution of income and wealth.

However, I am not so sure about a financial transactions tax which would result in transactions moving offshore. I invest in a number of companies that are domiciled in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man and other places outside the grip of HMRC. The delightful advantage they offer is no Stamp Duty which saves 0.5 per cent on every purchase. That is the jam, not the bread and butter reason for any of my investments. Ireland by contrast has a Stamp Duty of one per cent which makes for very expensive dealing. Generally I avoid Irish companies for just that reason.

Competitiveness is very complicated. Businesses have moved overseas because of lower wages, a too high exchange rate, to be closer to customers... any number of reasons. Once everything was made in the UK and shipped to the rest of the world. Geography made this only a short term solution for things like bricks, basic steel, coal, all the heavy stuff with low profit margins. Such things are best produced near to the site of their use. The simple manufactures like railway lines, hammers, axes could all be made with relatively simple machinery by relatively unskilled labour. Perfect jobs for lower paid semi-skilled workers in a developing economy.

Unfortunately that leaves us with a large proportion of semi-skilled and unskilled workers with nothing to do. We can't compete on wages, even the miserable minimum wage is more than the Chinese get. We have to become better educated, better trained and better managed. There was a programme on TV recently about "The Town That Took on China". A cushion manufacturer in Kirkby, Merseyside and a factory in North East China under the same ownership were compared and contrasted. Well worth watching if it is still on iPlayer. The UK won back some production because of a more skilled workforce and better organisation and management. But the biggest reason was that cushions are largely a fashion item and it takes too long to get a design to China, make it up and ship the finished product back to the markets in Europe and the USA.

The Pound is overpriced because of Osborne's austerity. The UK is seen as a financial safe haven because Osborne prioritises terrorising the work force with government created mass unemployment over growth and jobs.

I think we have to accept that most jobs can be done more cheaply either by robots, computers or in low wage countries. So we either let the unemployable starve, we let them exist on miserly benefits as now or we have a serious redistribution of income and pay them a decent wage to do socially useful work. This could be with old people, disabled people, the environment whatever.

Whichever we choose, we should stop pretending that there is always a legal job for anyone desperate enough.
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Angus Galloway on 25/05/2012(UTC)
Prof Eman
Posted: 23 May 2012 08:31:32(UTC)
#22

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

In Citywire,s Wednesday Papers roundup, there is an interesting article on the subject-
The Daily Telegraph (comment)- Has Paul Krugman been reading a different report on the UK economy?
Worth reading.
Graham Barlow
Posted: 23 May 2012 10:06:40(UTC)
#23

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Most of the small business people I talk to (T/O circa £8 mil) are petrified to take on more staff, and are making do with what they have. They are working flat out with the assets they have and are also reluctant to invest heavily , merely a replacement policy. The main bone of contention is the cost, and time of standing down non productive staff who can be hired and do not shape up to the job. This does not make them ogres , but protectors of peoples' jobs. You cannot even get rid of a thief without going through a whole panoply of meetings written warnings , and could end up in a biased tribunal. It is cheaper to pay them off to go away. This one fact alone stifles enterprise, and threatens employment for millions of people who would like to try a job, and see if they could make the grade. I know there is nothing worse than losing a job, but business is NOT an extension of the welfare state. The Politicians have hijacked business for this purpose and it is killing off enterprise and business variety. They have used it to garnish votes, but its consequences will be paid by all in the end. Britain is withering slowly but surely on the vine. Business is being legislated out of existence in many areas, not all but very much in the small enterprise area, which is the biggest employer.
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John Osborne on 23/05/2012(UTC)
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 23 May 2012 10:23:30(UTC)
#24

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People see what they want to see.. At the Telegraph, wilful ignorance is an art form. Read the original IMF report and make up your own mind.
IMF Report on the UK
There is a lot of diplomatese so reading between the lines is necessary. My reading is that Osborne's plan is not working and is not expected top work any time soon. So the Bank should do more quantitative easing and the state should guarantee private borrowing for Keynsian infrastructure spending.

The weasel words are that the state should guarantee private sector borrowing, not borrow itself. In Tory dogma, private borrowing to build a railway is good but public borrowing to build a railway is bad. So, since the private sector cannot raise the money itself or cannot see a way to profit, the state should pretend not to be borrowing while in reality it is.

The weasel words leave room for hypocrites to claim ritualistic purity.
Rose G
Posted: 23 May 2012 10:34:56(UTC)
#25

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Why are we surprised at Cameron/Osborne decision to roll back the state - it is their reason for joining the Tory party; it is tory party ideology to make ordinary people pay the price for those who are in charge of making policies that enable their rich buddies to avoid taxation, to avoid paying their full share of it.

Those who voted for the tories are as responsible as the politicians themselves & there are plenty of them around.

My problem with government is that they all seem to come from a background that enables them to look people in their eye & lie, lie, lie - tory, libdem, nulab - they are all liars, have absolutely no morals about how their ideology has wreaked havoc with ordinary families.

There are very few politicians who are able to withstand the corrupt nature of politics, so even if they started of as people with some integrity, by the time they finish their careers, they have been infected by the corruption & of trying to hold on to their jobs - what a tragedy that those who are really keen to promote a more equal society are not interested in taking up politics.
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Jeremy Bosk on 23/05/2012(UTC)
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 23 May 2012 10:39:00(UTC)
#26

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Graham Barlow

I believe you and I sympathise with the problems of the small employer. It is not just small employers. A couple of days ago I heard from a supermarket checkout operator who, while scanning my groceries, explained the length of the queue: "We are short staffed and have no one to cover for sickness. We are not hiring anyone except replacements for those who leave". I have just crossed that company from my list of defensive buys. It will lose market share as surely as Sainsbury did a few years back. I will not name it as I am sure that they all have similar policies.

Unfortunately there are some employers that are dishonest and unfair. Even generally decent employers have their share of managers who should not be put in charge of a cage full of lab rats. I have worked for them. Of seven employers over a lifetime, two were fraudsters, one with vicious management. I met grotesquely unfair managers in two others. How typical that is I do not know. I suspect that the experience of those on the lower rungs of the workplace hierarchy, such as myself, have a different view from those at the top. Where and how do you strike a balance?

Graham Barlow
Posted: 23 May 2012 11:24:16(UTC)
#27

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Just a comment Sainsburys are cutting staff where they can and replacing check out staff with auto electronic check out systems. This is happening anywhere where a human can be replaced with a robot. Robots once its gliches are ironed out are far cheaper to use with no hassle, unlike humans. Tough isnt it?
John Osborne
Posted: 23 May 2012 11:33:05(UTC)
#28

Joined: 13/07/2010(UTC)
Posts: 58

I think most of us are agreed that all governments should do more to help business be successful, whilst curbing the excesses of the corrupt bonus culture (mostly) in larger companies.
Making companies successful and competitive in this country has been difficult for many years. As bystanders all we have seen is depressing decline.
All are agreed that government should do more to support business, but this has proved ineffective without a work culture and long term management investment in plant and training. What is VInce Cable doing?
Continual devaluation of sterling is not the answer, all this leads to is devaluation of the country's assets and businesses being bought up by foreigners whose interests are not those of ours with predictable results. Any short-term gains from devaluation without other measurers are eroded by lower productivity and inflation.
Unfortunately, however, UK is so indebted that further devaluation is inevitable sooner or later.
I would like to see changes in the Law to
a) disadvantage foreign ownership and hedge fund speculative investment (this lead to downfall of Cadbury). There are many ways this could be done.
b) plan to renationalise key utilities to prevent their profits haemoraging abroad
c) change the bonus culture. This might be done, for example, by taking away the institutional block vote (ie if a fund holds £1million shares then this only counts for one vote for director pay resolutions), and limiting bonuses to a small proportion of salary
d) change taxation laws to encourage long term investment. The flat rate of CGT penalises savers as in effect it is a tax on inflation created by the government and makes most people investing outside the ISA system lose on stock market investment. Bring back indexation allowance. Even Labour had taper-relief which was a stealth tax in itself, but the present flat rate is worse and not a credit to the conservatives.
e) change in the company board structure. More emphasis should be put on technical contributions from those who are actually involved and have experience of a Company's business. Company boards stuffed solely with accountants and lawyers lead to long term failure.
Prof Eman
Posted: 23 May 2012 12:13:03(UTC)
#29

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy at #21
On FTT, a surprisingly Tory/capitalist answer from you. Going off shore to avoid tax?
I am not sure of my facts, but the last article I read suggested an FTT rate of 0.05%, i.e one half of one tenth of a percent. If that is the case surely most of us would stomach it without going off shore.
Prof Eman
Posted: 23 May 2012 22:28:03(UTC)
#30

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Graham Barlow at #23.
Many small employers are petrified of taking on staff, as the cost of the marginal employee is often very high, and employees are not machines and therefore unpredictable.
However there are ways of minimising risk, for example-
-trial periods
-fixed term contracts
-moving employees from part time to full time work
-use of agencies. In the current climate an agency worker often costs little more than the full time employee.
-use of two part time employees instead of one full time.
-use of self employed.
So it is possible to employ people without some of the strings attached to full time employment.
The thing then comes down to how to organise the other factors of production in order to gain the competitive edge. Investment is one matter that government can assist with e.g Tax incentives for investment. There are other ways.
As has been pointed out by citywire participants private business is better at allocating resources than government. Perhaps a more micro level approach via tax incentives to investment, at small and micro level, would be helpful.
Somehow we need to develop the competitive edge/advantage, something that some countries do better than we do.
As Jeremy in a subsequent post points out, getting the balance right is the major issue.
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