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Dan L
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:59:32(UTC)
#920

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
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Bulldog Drummond;193739 wrote:
smg8;193738 wrote:
I totally forgot the word “recent” when referring to EWI performance which gave my post a totally different complexion! It was more that people are commenting on Fundsmith over 5-6 weeks performance, but not the 9% in 1 year or minus 10% YTD of EWI say.

As others have mentioned though there is indeed a propensity here (and including myself of course) to look a bit short term, or indeed to simply find a timescale that fits the narrative!

Interesting chart though;

Indeed. I tend to look at 3 and 5 year numbers. EWI seems well ahead of FS on those. My point here - I agree that it's ad nauseam - is that FS had very good returns in its early days, but has been a bit lacklustre in more recent years. 1 year performance is the same as a FTSE tracker.


I agree with that. Terry Smith has always said that the fund should do better when the market is struggling, and the market has been far from struggling in the last few years. I am a bit surprised it has kept up.
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2 users thanked Dan L for this post.
D Bergman on 07/11/2021(UTC), Robin on 07/11/2021(UTC)
D Bergman
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:59:41(UTC)
#918

Joined: 22/03/2018(UTC)
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Bulldog Drummond;193739 wrote:
smg8;193738 wrote:
I totally forgot the word “recent” when referring to EWI performance which gave my post a totally different complexion! It was more that people are commenting on Fundsmith over 5-6 weeks performance, but not the 9% in 1 year or minus 10% YTD of EWI say.

As others have mentioned though there is indeed a propensity here (and including myself of course) to look a bit short term, or indeed to simply find a timescale that fits the narrative!

Interesting chart though;

Indeed. I tend to look at 3 and 5 year numbers. EWI seems well ahead of FS on those. My point here - I agree that it's ad nauseam - is that FS had very good returns in its early days, but has been a bit lacklustre in more recent years. 1 year performance is the same as a FTSE tracker.


I happily agree with both of you.
From my point of view, it's the lower volatility of FS vis a vis EWI that's the attraction - I've never really liked roller coasters even when I was younger, and certainly not now.

I do wonder, however, if this forum should be divided into Trading posts and Investment posts.
When Keith Stewart brings up 1-month performance to prove a point, that means nothing to me but would mean a lot to a trader (I assume).
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5 users thanked D Bergman for this post.
Dan L on 07/11/2021(UTC), Keith Cobby on 07/11/2021(UTC), Robin on 07/11/2021(UTC), Fell Walker on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 07 November 2021 12:26:23(UTC)
#919

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D Bergman;193743 wrote:


I do wonder, however, if this forum should be divided into Trading posts and Investment posts.
When Keith Stewart brings up 1-month performance to prove a point, that means nothing to me but would mean a lot to a trader (I assume).

I suspect that we filter out according to our interests, e.g. I never read the Transactions folder and very seldom the one on PE discount trading. No doubt I miss out on good tips but I can't be bothered to go in for active trading, discount plays, etc.
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3 users thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
Keith Cobby on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC), Kraftwerk on 11/11/2021(UTC)
Andrew Drummond
Posted: 10 November 2021 22:07:53(UTC)
#921

Joined: 27/06/2021(UTC)
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Just finished going through all 46 pages of this thread!

Just some thoughts on the cloud comments.

I think Amazon and AWS is the leading cloud infrastructures, the Google cloud is trailing in third place.

The fact that Amazon developed their infrastructure for their own use primarliy probably helps it's perception of being a solid offering.

Amazon are heavily dependant on the AWS infrastructure so it is unlikely to change much and offers well-tested products, and a company that is considering using it might consider that this stability is a good USP.

Microsoft however has a habit of FUD and killing products that aren't working, and has a bad reputation with many people. Witness their abortive 'blockchain in the cloud' offerings.

A lot of the technologies used in the cloud are also not Microsoft ones, so there is less tie to Microsoft for that either.

Google have developed some great cloud products - Kubernetes in particular can be used to reduce a companies dependency on a particular cloud infrastructure. However I don't think they have the market penetration of the other two for the cloud.

Maybe it is the fact that many companies are becoming almost locked-in to the cloud provider and Amazon have the leading offering that has caused TS to think they are worth buying?
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3 users thanked Andrew Drummond for this post.
Tim D on 10/11/2021(UTC), Dan L on 10/11/2021(UTC), Mike L on 12/11/2021(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 10 November 2021 23:19:58(UTC)
#923

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883
Andrew Drummond;194246 wrote:
Google have developed some great cloud products - Kubernetes in particular can be used to reduce a companies dependency on a particular cloud infrastructure. However I don't think they have the market penetration of the other two for the cloud.


AWS' being first counts for a lot I think. I remember in the early days of AWS (when there wasn't much more to it than EC2 and S3) looking at what Google was offering... which then was Google App Engine. No doubt GAE was very scalable and efficient in many ways... but it was also quite dogmatic about what was The Right Way to do things and needed a lot of effort to port applications to it. For anyone just looking to move things to servers in the cloud, AWS was the no-brainer choice. Google stuck with pushing the GAE model for far too long I think, they didn't launch Google Compute Cloud - their EC2 equivalent - until 2012; EC2 had appeared in 2006 (and MS' Azure in 2010). Meanwhile AWS was filling out their offering with a bunch of clever stuff like Lambda (arguably their equivalent of GAE) and users who'd already homesteaded onto AWS via EC2 had no reason to go elsewhere. (When I've looked at the prices of the things I'm interested in, they're all around the same cost so there's little incentive to move.)
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Dan L
Posted: 10 November 2021 23:57:07(UTC)
#922

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Andrew Drummond;194246 wrote:
Just finished going through all 46 pages of this thread!

Just some thoughts on the cloud comments.

I think Amazon and AWS is the leading cloud infrastructures, the Google cloud is trailing in third place.

The fact that Amazon developed their infrastructure for their own use primarliy probably helps it's perception of being a solid offering.

Amazon are heavily dependant on the AWS infrastructure so it is unlikely to change much and offers well-tested products, and a company that is considering using it might consider that this stability is a good USP.

Microsoft however has a habit of FUD and killing products that aren't working, and has a bad reputation with many people. Witness their abortive 'blockchain in the cloud' offerings.

A lot of the technologies used in the cloud are also not Microsoft ones, so there is less tie to Microsoft for that either.

Google have developed some great cloud products - Kubernetes in particular can be used to reduce a companies dependency on a particular cloud infrastructure. However I don't think they have the market penetration of the other two for the cloud.

Maybe it is the fact that many companies are becoming almost locked-in to the cloud provider and Amazon have the leading offering that has caused TS to think they are worth buying?


Microsoft definitely needed a push back then. Amazon introduced cloud infrastructure (AWS) and Google cloud collaboration apps (GSUITE) and really forced Microsoft to pick up their game. Because of this two front approach to the cloud Microsoft has grabbed the title of the largest cloud provider and that means a lot. Companies that use their Microsoft 365 service are very likely to also use Azure and vice versa. So in some sense it doesn't always matter about details of features, support or cost - companies like to buy things simply and it can be difficult to break into that ecosystem. For all of their trying Google have not managed to really break the Office monopoly, or properly monetize it in the same way.

Besides, Microsoft is not the company that it was just a few years ago. The preference is for Linux not Windows Server, they use open source for everything (they were one of the original members of the Kubernetes community from when Google released it), they promote NoSQL databases as much as their own SQL services. The future of the 'server' operating system is limited - everything is going serverless where you don't care whether its Linux, Windows or whatever. Serverless applications can be very portable and you may well see customers hoping from cloud to cloud. It will likely come down to ease of access, security, management and cost.

At this point I don't see anyone catching Microsoft but there is plenty of money to be made and Amazon and Google will be large growth stories too.
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1 user thanked Dan L for this post.
Tim D on 11/11/2021(UTC)
Jesse M
Posted: 11 November 2021 22:42:04(UTC)
#924

Joined: 30/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 1,471
There's a Telegraph article 'Can Fundsmith protect me from a market crash?’'
Unfortunately I haven't been able to read it as it's behind a paywall.
Just in case anyone else reads it and thinks it's worth sharing the content
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 11 November 2021 22:49:38(UTC)
#927

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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Jesse M;194376 wrote:
There's a Telegraph article 'Can Fundsmith protect me from a market crash?’'
Unfortunately I haven't been able to read it as it's behind a paywall.
Just in case anyone else reads it and thinks it's worth sharing the content


Does this work?

https://archive.ph/lS5je

As always, ludicrous advice from "experts". I especially enjoyed:

"A good addition to these three funds would be JP Morgan Global Macro Opportunities, whose managers have a good track record of making money when markets are falling as well as when they are rising. Over the past five years, the £2.2bn fund has delivered 35pc."

I suppose that one might appeal to those who like CGT and are more than happy with atrocious returns.
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3 users thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
Jesse M on 11/11/2021(UTC), Mike L on 12/11/2021(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 12/11/2021(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 12 November 2021 10:08:56(UTC)
#928

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,125
.
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Steve U
Posted: 12 November 2021 11:05:01(UTC)
#925

Joined: 30/08/2017(UTC)
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Jesse M;194376 wrote:
There's a Telegraph article 'Can Fundsmith protect me from a market crash?’'
Unfortunately I haven't been able to read it as it's behind a paywall.
Just in case anyone else reads it and thinks it's worth sharing the content



for future reference download this add on - it works fine

https://github.com/iamad.../bypass-paywalls-chrome
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5 users thanked Steve U for this post.
Dan L on 12/11/2021(UTC), Neminem Laedit on 12/11/2021(UTC), dominic tugal on 13/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 13/11/2021(UTC), Lu Mingyan on 25/11/2021(UTC)
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