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Ive got enough now + I've never lived through a bear market
MBA MBA
Posted: 02 February 2022 13:08:57(UTC)
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The recent relatively minor correction in the markets has made me re-evaluate. I've actually got enough cash/value already, why am I chasing alpha and investing so much in equities. I am a good 15-20 years away from retirement but still i dont need to take the risk. A large part of my goal is to achieve over 10-20 years just a little more than my mortgage rate i.e. 1.19% which I can do with lower risk.

Also some useful recent contributions from fellow posters around all weather and the tortoise and hare fable resonated.

I've never lived through a multi-year bear market has anyone on this forum - just sharp drawdowns followed by a sharp Fed driven rebound - but surely one will come one day over the next 10-20 years and I risk jeopardizing everything. Why am I doing that?

Sure, in wealth terms I may not be in the top 10% nationally, definitely not in London terms, but I'm probably not far off nationally which is more than enough for my fairly modest innate desire for material consumption (i happily drive a 10 year old Ford in an area where Tesla's are common). I invest in order to secure my financial independence, and that of my family, but I'm already nearly there and I just don't need to take the level of risk I have been.

Therefore, I've started to de-risk my portfolio. This has to a certain extent meant accepting buying some funds with government bonds mainly via CGAR and LS40 as well as some expensive Trojan Troy funds and cash.

What about you?

Have you asked yourself if you have enough and whether you've tailored you risk level accordingly?

How would you react if we had 2-5 years of a bear market in equities?
31 users thanked MBA MBA for this post.
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Aminatidi
Posted: 02 February 2022 13:34:43(UTC)
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I've asked it a lot recently and come to the conclusion that like you, it suits me more to hopefully win by not losing.

I have lots in CGT and lots in RICA and I've just opened a drip into VWRL and I don't know where that will end percentage wise but at some point playing around with a compound interest calculator the penny drops that "enough" might be quite a bit lower than you might think it is.
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 February 2022 13:35:14(UTC)
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I think the same. I am mortgage free and a 3-4% return will do me very nicely as I am unconcerned with capital wastage.

This drawdown (which may or may not be over yet) has got me shifting away from growth and more towards stable income.

I went about 30% to cash last week and have started to trickle back into boring income orientated funds. Looking at funds and IT's now that previously I'd have dismissed out of hand. Even returning a little to the UK to reduce currency risks.

The last few years have taken me from borderline retirement into quite solid ground and now I think is the time to think a bit less and enjoy a bit more.
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Jimmy Page
Posted: 02 February 2022 13:40:16(UTC)
#4

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1. Until within 10 years of retirement, I had no interest in the markets whatsoever, so any bear markets just passed me by. However, wealth was being accrued though work - career plus a couple business ventures- and frankly I was having a ball, enjoying what I was doing. Fortunately, money was going into a SIPP and ISAs, though hardly optimally invested. Probably, whatever was tipped in the Sunday papers each week. Still, thankfully it was there as time marched on.
2. Around the 10 year mark, I did the 'have I got enough' thing and used annuity rates to decide. It did also start more of an interest (through necessity, tbh) in managing the finances, so probably got more returns from that point. Certainly, more use of the tax breaks etc.
I didn't derisk; it was always, for better or worse, a mix of risk-on assets and cash. The cash element driven by known/ likely/ maybe purchases within 5 years.
3. Yes. As said elsewhere, day to day income comes from a 'natural yield' portfolio with its own float of 3 (currently 4) years of cash reserves.

As I wrote that, the lack of planning and discipline became rather painfully apparent. Ah, what could have been...
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Ermintrade
Posted: 02 February 2022 14:01:21(UTC)
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In this vein of safety first, some people might be interested in the simple portfolio of ITs put together by Merryn Somerset Webb of MoneyWeek:
1 year return %
Caledonia Investments 34
Law Debenture Corp 23
Mid-Wynd Internat 10
Personal Assets 9
RIT Capital Partners 26
Scottish Mortgage -14

She reviews it every year, but rarely makes any changes. No changes made in her last review.

Regards
ermintrade
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bédé
Posted: 02 February 2022 14:10:43(UTC)
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"Have you asked yourself if you have enough and whether you've tailored you risk level accordingly?
How would you react if we had 2-5 years of a bear market in equities?"

Wallis Simpson said: " you can never be too rich, or too thin."

I lived through the 1970s and through Japan's bear market (was it 1990s?). I found neither that painful.

Even in a bear market some things go up. I would seek them out.

If you have a day-job it is a bit early to become too safety conscious. Perhaps this discussion is not for me. But I'm sure you are not looking just for bias confirmation.
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xxd09
Posted: 02 February 2022 14:38:48(UTC)
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A few years pre retirement I had made enough and been through one or two bear markets
John Bogles advice of bonds at age minus 10 in your portfolio Asset Allocation had been ringing In my ears
Plus the relevance of global trackers and expenses for amateur investors
Also the fact that a bear market at retirement is a disaster from which few portfolios will recover
I did end up 30/65/5- equities/bonds/cash at retirement
Been there ever since
xxd09
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Mogish
Posted: 02 February 2022 14:40:35(UTC)
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ive been sitting in the wings watching and not posted very much. I thought the forum was really aimed at people who proffesionally traded and were real boffins in the field of investing.

Good to see there are others like me who really only want to provide for themselves and loved ones in retirement , who are happy to live comfortably but not need extravagance.

My thoughts for now are similar to other posters , 5% gain or above would be acceptable , more would be nice, however id rather sleep at night rather than worry and continually look at markets(which became an obsession over the last few years!)and make irrational switches in panic.

Whether ive made the correct move remains to be seen but I too have switched some funds recently into a global tracker and moved cash to CGAR.

Trustnet tools(recommended by some on here)have been really helpful to gauge performance and allow me to make decisions based on performance and OCF.

Oh and driving a 10 year old car aint that bad , simply a workhorse that im not too precious about.
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MBA MBA
Posted: 02 February 2022 15:43:00(UTC)
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other threads have talked about this and many investors as King Lodos pointed out conflate all weather with low risk and risk averse oldies. Its all about risk adjusted returns, isnt it. On that basis all weather, like Capital Gearing Trust or PNL or Ruffer mean a fund for all macro economic environments (if one believes the long term driver for fund performance is macro economics).

the thing that really strikes me is Ive never been through a bear market or even a persistently high inflation environment or one where central banks are not accommodative. Imagine a Paul Volcker fella coming along really determined to quash inflation at any price. That will pummel equities.

and while Im sitting on healthy gains they are not 100%+ gains because ive only been investing seriously 2-4 years and every time I put new money in i bring down my average gain.
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Jimmy Page
Posted: 02 February 2022 17:17:27(UTC)
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Well, if you have enough, then you could indeed simply consider ring fencing it in a bucket of asset protectors.
At the same time though, all fresh money over the next 10-15 years could then be invested into another bucket with a higher risk threshold. That could then be derisked for retirement part 2.

Retirement income 'assured', but with FOMO scratched with bucket2.
It may also help the discipline of leaving Bucket1 alone and not being tempted to disturb it with tomorrow's Peloton. If you need help with the discipline, that is. (I did).

By separating into buckets, perhaps half the final retirement pot will have a new 15 year period in which to try for growth.

Who knows? At retirement, you could have lots of options. Live off the whole lot, live off bucket1 for 15 years, derisk the next wodge and use that for years 15-30. Or see how it's working out after a period, then blow bucket2 on whatever.
At worst, maybe it just bolsters the common wealth and makes the whole retirement easier.

It all depends on a lot of things, but personal psychology matters a lot. Some say that too few equities is as much a long term risk as too few, and we all have to find a way to live with that.
Hindsight is not terribly helpful, but a lot of the 10 years I spent approaching retirement, when I started to take an interest, was for the most part a time of daily 'wall of worry' type headlines, with doomsayers on CNBC sucking teeth and shaking heads. It would have been far too easy to miss out. Having said that....who knows?
The best advice I remember was 'time in the market, not timing the market'. The time parameter is set by when you need the wealth, so a graduated sequence of target dates may help?

No advice!. Just the sort of thing I was mulling over then.
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