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Fundsmith Performance
Zidane
Posted: 03 February 2022 10:53:36(UTC)

Joined: 22/03/2021(UTC)
Posts: 52

Kraftwerk;207217 wrote:
JayW;207185 wrote:
I hope no one thought large cap "quality stocks" couldn't fluctuate wildly after earnings came in a few percentage points below expectations.

I note both PayPal and Facebook have cited inflation as major cause of their disappointments.


The numbers are staggering.

A 20% fall in FB represents a $200bn market cap wipeout, among the largest in history. That would wipe out 50% (!) of Europe's most valuable company.

Some facts about the earnings,
- Quarterly revenue grew by almost 20%
- Gross margin of ... drum roll ... 81% (!)
- EBIT grew 43%
- Net income grew 31%
- EPS fell 5%
- Shares fall in after hours 20%

This is because FB generated 'only' $10.2bn in profit in the quarter!

After this fall, the company will trade at a rather nominal P/E multiple of 18x. And they say markets are efficient!

I understand the macro narrative is all about inflation and left-for-dead banks, telcos and energy companies. But this company is still a virtual ATM machine.

PS - I have no direct holdings in FB, and only hold it via FS and an index tracker.



Staggering numbers indeed. They do seem to be under a lot more scrutiny than others, whether it be political or from the FTC; their attempt to buy a GIF company for 500m was blocked, yet Microsoft looks set to swallow up one of the biggest games companies in the world for 50bn+.
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 03 February 2022 10:58:25(UTC)

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Zidane;207221 wrote:


All those things were what gave Amazon a loyal customer base and a competitive advantage over the old traditional retailers, perhaps they have become the Goliath that is at risk of being disrupted, but I wouldn't bet against them.

If their e-commerce division did end up struggling over a million jobs would be at risk, the resulting carnage would be epic.


It did, but in the same way that Amazon was a disrupter, it now is being disrupted by things like Shopify where a fixed web site subscription is replacing a percentage cut on sales that Amazon takes.

Effectively Shopify, Wix etc, cut out Amazon as a middle-man in the e-commerce process and allows small traders to arrange direct shipping without the Amazon cut. Drop shipping makes shipping stock to an Amazon warehouse obsolete and increases trader margins. The warehouse model is also a nightmare for "customer returns" which seem to get landfilled or auctioned off rather than making it back to the supplier.

...but I guess we will find out later today.
1 user thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Blunt Instrument
Posted: 03 February 2022 11:00:11(UTC)

Joined: 21/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 355

ANDREW FOSTER;207212 wrote:
The problems I see with Amazon is the "hold stock/warehouse" model. Holding stock, stock picking and despatch is expensive. The rest of the world (eBay, Alibaba, Shopify etc.) are all geared towards drop shipping and direct despatch where goods are only packed once, direct to the customer, not to an Amazon warehouse and thence to the customer (double shipping, double cost).

Those massive Amazon warehouses are starting to look like huge white elephants now. The extra costs are making many items more expensive than the High Street or other e-tailers (like Argos in the UK)

Luckily Amazon has other profitable strings to it's bow. But it's no co-incidence that the goods sector has low (if any) profitability. Maybe they should scrap it and concentrate on the AWS side of things?



Have you seen Money Heist, where the crims break into the Mint in order to run the presses for a couple of weeks?

That's like Amazon 3P (Marketplace), but with Amazon running the presses 52 weeks a year such that it's the most profitable part of the business. My guess is TS bought Amazon after twigging this. As with the crims in Money Heist though, the big risk is probably from "The Authorities" stepping in to interrupt the plan, hence perhaps why Amazon seems to go out of its way to downplay the vast, monopolistic machine that 3P has become.

EDIT: good point made above about others seeking to disintermediate Amazon themselves. Prime is a very big deal (powerful tool) here though.
Zidane
Posted: 03 February 2022 11:30:55(UTC)

Joined: 22/03/2021(UTC)
Posts: 52

ANDREW FOSTER;207226 wrote:
Zidane;207221 wrote:


All those things were what gave Amazon a loyal customer base and a competitive advantage over the old traditional retailers, perhaps they have become the Goliath that is at risk of being disrupted, but I wouldn't bet against them.

If their e-commerce division did end up struggling over a million jobs would be at risk, the resulting carnage would be epic.


It did, but in the same way that Amazon was a disrupter, it now is being disrupted by things like Shopify where a fixed web site subscription is replacing a percentage cut on sales that Amazon takes.

Effectively Shopify, Wix etc, cut out Amazon as a middle-man in the e-commerce process and allows small traders to arrange direct shipping without the Amazon cut. Drop shipping makes shipping stock to an Amazon warehouse obsolete and increases trader margins. The warehouse model is also a nightmare for "customer returns" which seem to get landfilled or auctioned off rather than making it back to the supplier.

...but I guess we will find out later today.


I agree with you. Indeed, it looks like many major brands are leaving Amazon as they realised they can manage their fulfilments directly to consumers at much better margins, Nike (another FS holding) being a major success in this regard.

Having said that, this should be Amazon's best quarter of they year so e-commerce sales may be very good.
Blunt Instrument
Posted: 03 February 2022 11:52:32(UTC)

Joined: 21/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 355

ANDREW FOSTER;207226 wrote:
...but I guess we will find out later today.


One of the things I like about investment markets is how the prevailing mood (informed by recency & availability biases) helps shape the response of investors to new information/data: Ben Graham's "Mr Market", erratically swinging between optimism and pessimism. Hence, securities pricing depends on both the actually data itself and the prevailing mood "filter" through which investors view that data. The best investment/trading opportunities come when a (very) large gap opens up between current popular perception and the underlying reality, giving rise to large mispricings. Market's can be pretty inefficient in the short term, en route to long term efficiency.

Certainly at present we're seeing Mr Market's former irrational optimism diminish somewhat. Any perceived misstep in quarterly numbers will see a stock taken behind the woodshed, and if (when) a general growth slowdown plays out we'll see more of this. For long term investors, this should be welcome news, particularly if the mood swings from optimism to full-blown pessimism, materially lowering valuation multiples thereby providing greater scope for more attractive long term returns.
4 users thanked Blunt Instrument for this post.
Old Jock on 03/02/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 03/02/2022(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 03/02/2022(UTC), Zidane on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Old Jock
Posted: 03 February 2022 11:54:07(UTC)

Joined: 04/06/2018(UTC)
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The concern for me on Facebook/Meta is the pivot to the Metaverse, and the associated capital expenditure.

Any thoughts on how this changes the investment case for the stock, away from a cash-cow ad platform with a captive user base, and towards a speculative growth story on an imaginary future world?

The Fundsmith mantra of persistent high return on capital would seem to favour the former, but run a mile from the latter.
1 user thanked Old Jock for this post.
Chris1986 on 03/02/2022(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 03 February 2022 12:25:18(UTC)

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Old Jock;207243 wrote:
The concern for me on Facebook/Meta is the pivot to the Metaverse, and the associated capital expenditure.

Any thoughts on how this changes the investment case for the stock, away from a cash-cow ad platform with a captive user base, and towards a speculative growth story on an imaginary future world?

The Fundsmith mantra of persistent high return on capital would seem to favour the former, but run a mile from the latter.


Sometimes I test my own understanding of an investment case by taking a pen and paper and writing a few sentences on what a company or product is actually "about".

When it come to the "metaverse" I literally have no idea what it actually is....I could not write it down.
3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 03/02/2022(UTC), Old Jock on 03/02/2022(UTC), Tom Mozy on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Joe Soap
Posted: 03 February 2022 12:38:37(UTC)

Joined: 24/01/2010(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;207249 wrote:
Old Jock;207243 wrote:
The concern for me on Facebook/Meta is the pivot to the Metaverse, and the associated capital expenditure.

Any thoughts on how this changes the investment case for the stock, away from a cash-cow ad platform with a captive user base, and towards a speculative growth story on an imaginary future world?

The Fundsmith mantra of persistent high return on capital would seem to favour the former, but run a mile from the latter.


Sometimes I test my own understanding of an investment case by taking a pen and paper and writing a few sentences on what a company or product is actually "about".

When it come to the "metaverse" I literally have no idea what it actually is....I could not write it down.

The biggest problem I have with metaverse and similar next generation technologies, it is rare for incumbent companies to take a lead. What generally happens is the next generation of technology quietly gets to dominate and disrupt the status quo and nobody really notices until a dominant force has well and truly emerged. What might happen then, is one of the big incumbent tech mega firms buy it. I don't think a blue sky approach to generating the next iteration of the internet by design is going to happen. I might be wrong but precedent suggests not.
2 users thanked Joe Soap for this post.
Blunt Instrument on 03/02/2022(UTC), J-san on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 03 February 2022 12:47:37(UTC)

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;207249 wrote:
When it come to the "metaverse" I literally have no idea what it actually is....I could not write it down.


Pretty sure the only reason we've even heard of that word is that Zuck needed to "put a dead cat on the table" after the Frances Haugen whistleblower "Facebook papers" stuff came out. Amazingly, it seems to have worked too. It's practically like if the tobacco companies had managed to completely sidestep revelations that they knew smoking was harmful to their customers by simply rebranding their product from "cigarettes" to "unicorn sticks" or something.
1 user thanked Tim D for this post.
Guest on 03/02/2022(UTC)
bédé
Posted: 03 February 2022 12:56:25(UTC)

Joined: 26/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 7,895

Best I can up with for "metaverse" is" uni- in universe replace by meta-.

OED: meta |ˈmɛtə|
adjectiveUS
(of a creative work) referring to itself or to the conventions of its genre; self-referential: the enterprise is inherently ‘meta’, since it doesn't review movies, for example, it reviews the reviewers who review movies.

I trust you already know meta- as meta-
combining form
1 denoting a change of position or condition: metamorphosis.
2 denoting position behind, after, or beyond: metacarpus.
3 denoting something of a higher or second-order kind: metalanguage | metonym.
4 at least 2 in Chemistry

But does a company or brand name have to mean anything except itself? I'm happy with Abrdn. But rebranding is not a cheap job.
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