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Ive got enough now + I've never lived through a bear market
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Ian Eccles
Posted: 20 February 2022 07:39:16(UTC)
#38

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
Posts: 1,080
MBA MBA;209869 wrote:
Ian Eccles;209858 wrote:
The world is split between Investors and savers, obviously I don't know you but I would put you on the saver side of the equation .
My point being you can make money in any kind of market.
I have been investing for over 50 years and I am not claiming to know it all because we all keep learning.
I invest for fun it's like a drug, great when you win crap when you get it wrong .
Some dude told a bloke called Caesar to beware the ides of March.
I suggest if you are uncertain of the market you should think about selling some of your portfolio because the ides of March is on the 15th and the following day the Fed announce the result of their meeting.
If they up the rate by 50bp you will see some action that you might not like.


Wait, the Fed is considering raising rates! I’m gonna sell before other investors find out.


I think you will find like Elvis, the smart money has already left the building.
Why do you think the Nasdaq Composite is down 11% this year and the SP500 started the year at 4796 and is now 4348 ?
The investor has been taking profit and aligning their portfolio to take advantage when the market decides to drop sufficiently for them to re invest at a lower rate.
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MBA MBA
Posted: 20 February 2022 08:45:16(UTC)
#39

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725
Ian Eccles;209938 wrote:
MBA MBA;209869 wrote:
Ian Eccles;209858 wrote:
The world is split between Investors and savers, obviously I don't know you but I would put you on the saver side of the equation .
My point being you can make money in any kind of market.
I have been investing for over 50 years and I am not claiming to know it all because we all keep learning.
I invest for fun it's like a drug, great when you win crap when you get it wrong .
Some dude told a bloke called Caesar to beware the ides of March.
I suggest if you are uncertain of the market you should think about selling some of your portfolio because the ides of March is on the 15th and the following day the Fed announce the result of their meeting.
If they up the rate by 50bp you will see some action that you might not like.


Wait, the Fed is considering raising rates! I’m gonna sell before other investors find out.


I think you will find like Elvis, the smart money has already left the building.
Why do you think the Nasdaq Composite is down 11% this year and the SP500 started the year at 4796 and is now 4348 ?
The investor has been taking profit and aligning their portfolio to take advantage when the market decides to drop sufficiently for them to re invest at a lower rate.


Selling high and buying low sounds like the way to go. Do you have a trading technique you employ?

I’m thinking of subscribing to Greg Secker Training Camp. He’s a successful trader.

Greg Secker Learn to Trade
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Ian Eccles
Posted: 20 February 2022 09:52:11(UTC)
#43

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
Posts: 1,080
It's not for me to tell you how to spend your money but you already know how to trade...buy low sell high it's that simple.
Go down to your local library there are shelves full of books telling you how to make money on the stock market and it's free .
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MBA MBA
Posted: 20 February 2022 10:09:20(UTC)
#44

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725
Ian Eccles;209952 wrote:
It's not for me to tell you how to spend your money but you already know how to trade...buy low sell high it's that simple.
Go down to your local library there are shelves full of books telling you how to make money on the stock market and it's free .


Many thanks. I’m going to read a few books abs hopefully I’ll be able to buy high and sell low.
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xxd09
Posted: 20 February 2022 10:30:20(UTC)
#46

Joined: 23/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,203
Good article by Alan Grossman in the Humble Dollar blog on Market Timing
Can someone provide a link?
xxd09
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MarkSp
Posted: 20 February 2022 10:47:24(UTC)
#45

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,204

Thanks: 285 times
Was thanked: 5858 time(s) in 1739 post(s)
Ian Eccles;209952 wrote:
It's not for me to tell you how to spend your money but you already know how to trade...buy low sell high it's that simple.
Go down to your local library there are shelves full of books telling you how to make money on the stock market and it's free .


Read Keynes

and read the Berkshire Hathaway letters to Investors
and I always recommend the Fundsmith ASMs

Good investments are based on earnings and the ability of companies to grow and protect them. It is very simple.

"Buy low, sell high" is a great idea. It goes with "run your winners and cut your losers" and the "only way to make a small fortune trading is to start off with a large fortune"

All good things and true to a great extent but also nonsense as there is nothing actionable about them.

If you want to be rich play football better than Lionel Messi - absolutely true but not particularly useful advice.
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7 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Julianw on 20/02/2022(UTC), MBA MBA on 20/02/2022(UTC), Harry Trout on 20/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 20/02/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 20/02/2022(UTC), Chris1986 on 21/02/2022(UTC), Mostly Retired on 21/02/2022(UTC)
MBA MBA
Posted: 20 February 2022 12:03:57(UTC)
#47

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725
market timing, trading, alpha is all nonsense for 99% of long only investors i.e. 10 years+.
the idea that anyone, let alone the Fed, knows what its going to do more than 3 months ahead is nonsense. As KL points out Bridgewater, with more PhDs than the Fed, cant consistently forecast inflation i very much doubt any retail investor is going to. HMT, OBR, BofE gets almost all of its forecasts wrong.

most investors cant even work out that had they stuck their money over their 20-30 years in vanguard global all cap, after fees, they'd be better off than buying this and that and pretending because they've read someone in the FT say that the Fed might raise rates they're being clever. if you can read the FT, so can the other 10million investors.

Be a patient, long only investor and take market returns, keep fees low, diversify, don't try and be clever. Thankfully for 80% of my pf I've been doing that. Now doing it for 100% of my pf.
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6 users thanked MBA MBA for this post.
Ad B on 20/02/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 20/02/2022(UTC), Tim D on 20/02/2022(UTC), Bulldog Drummond on 20/02/2022(UTC), Julianw on 21/02/2022(UTC), countrymum on 21/02/2022(UTC)
Ian Eccles
Posted: 21 February 2022 07:06:05(UTC)
#48

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
Posts: 1,080
MBA MBA;209979 wrote:
market timing, trading, alpha is all nonsense for 99% of long only investors i.e. 10 years+.
the idea that anyone, let alone the Fed, knows what its going to do more than 3 months ahead is nonsense. As KL points out Bridgewater, with more PhDs than the Fed, cant consistently forecast inflation i very much doubt any retail investor is going to. HMT, OBR, BofE gets almost all of its forecasts wrong.

most investors cant even work out that had they stuck their money over their 20-30 years in vanguard global all cap, after fees, they'd be better off than buying this and that and pretending because they've read someone in the FT say that the Fed might raise rates they're being clever. if you can read the FT, so can the other 10million investors.

Be a patient, long only investor and take market returns, keep fees low, diversify, don't try and be clever. Thankfully for 80% of my pf I've been doing that. Now doing it for 100% of my pf.


Never bought a tracker in my life, my portfolio is made up of eight properties and an old cinema which I converted into flats.
I invest some of the rent into the market when appropriate.
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1 user thanked Ian Eccles for this post.
MBA MBA on 22/02/2022(UTC)
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