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Harry Trout's Portfolio
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Mr GL
Posted: 02 March 2022 11:44:47(UTC)
#103

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
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I see you bought as a new position eg FTSE but I dont see that in your top 20 position table - should I assume its below the position size for it to show up? ie less than 1% of overall risk?
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Harry Trout on 02/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 02 March 2022 12:10:10(UTC)
#104

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Mr GL;211493 wrote:
I see you bought as a new position eg FTSE but I dont see that in your top 20 position table - should I assume its below the position size for it to show up? i.e. less than 1% of overall risk?

Yes my Vanguard FTSE 100 position is 0.6% at the end of February, a low conviction attempt to ride the value wave and not something I want to be in long term.

I will probably add more as we go through the year if the trend persists, and then jump off at some point.
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Mr GL on 02/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 10 March 2022 07:38:33(UTC)
#105

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Copied over from the Market Timing thread

Harry Trout;213193 wrote:
Mr GL;213165 wrote:

market timing? bear market rally? making real short term directional bets.... anyone?

Morning Mr GL

Not currently but open minded to the work of Mark Minervini and all that preceded him (E.g. Weinstein, O'Neill, Livermore)

My current approach is

1. Long term positions in the GIA and SIPP

2. Build up swing positions in the same stocks in the ISA buying low and selling high both to rebalance and to market time (a Trout variant of the world renowned and highly successful Peterson method, book pending)

Over time, if returns from portfolio 1 exceed 2 I shall do more of 1. And similarly if 2 > 1

Long term project, no hurry, weekly candles

I really like your open book approach, no obfuscation, refreshing !!

Cheers

Trouty
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Mr GL on 10/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 10 March 2022 09:27:21(UTC)
#106

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Copied over from the Market Timing thread

Harry Trout;213211 wrote:
King Lodos;213206 wrote:
Re: Swing trading

I wouldn't say don't do it – one thing you learn reading the Market Wizards books is no two successful traders do the same thing .. If swing trading seems like the most implausible and unpopular strategy, that's probably a good reason to study it.

It's why I always say: backtest .. You don't want your capital and time in the market being an experiment you have to run for 10-20 years before you even know if it works


I think if you have an itch you should scratch it. Have some fun to one side and make sure the book-keeping keeps you honest.

I have a comparison to VWRL measure which I post from time to time on my thread. In 2021 I fell behind but since inception it looks decent.

In light of 2021 performance I am slowly building up my position in VWRL - also to do some heavy lifting and diversify.

And the forum is only seeing my Hargreaves Lansdown account, not Mrs Trout's HL account (passives) or our Vanguard accounts where our annual ISAs go (saving for a house move in 10 years time)

If I find I have created a systematic repeatable process I can then go large(r) with it .......
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Newbie
Posted: 10 March 2022 20:14:40(UTC)
#101

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Harry Trout;211489 wrote:
Mr GL;211374 wrote:
what does your overall portfolio look like?

Here is my top 20 which adds up to 89.9% including cash:

020322 Top 20 Citywire

The positions marked in yellow are remaining balances in my GIA that I currently don't like but can’t sell until 6 April.

Below the top 20 shown are smaller balances in individual stocks in the following:

UK Stocks: Diageo, Fevertree, Games Workshop, London Stock Exchange

US Stocks: Airbnb, Chewy, Palantir, Paypal and Tesla

I run 5 tests over stocks before I invest or top up. At the moment only Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla meet all the criteria. Diageo is close but there is an issue with earnings growth for me. Amazon is also close.

Harry

Have you by any chance analysed FB / Meta recently or is it on your radar, if so would be good hear your thoughts on it.

I am not interested in the Metaverse side of things, I am looking at the share price and current revenue streams, margins, rations etc, and it seems to be looking pretty good.

Thanks
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Harry Trout on 11/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 11 March 2022 15:44:47(UTC)
#102

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Newbie;213340 wrote:

Harry

Have you by any chance analysed FB / Meta recently or is it on your radar, if so would be good hear your thoughts on it.

I am not interested in the Metaverse side of things, I am looking at the share price and current revenue streams, margins, rations etc, and it seems to be looking pretty good.

Thanks

Hi Newbie

Yes, I owned Facebook and sold for a small loss on the dramatic gap down post earnings on the 3 February 2022 at $245, I posted about it on transactions thread. Price is now $189.

I have it on watchlist but to be honest it's not there as a serious contender to add to my portfolio again. It's there more to keep an eye on so I can see if I called it right and review post sale to check my process.

Sure enough, earnings per share are now forecast to be $12.4 this year compared with $14.2 prior to the last earnings release.

I will be honest, I don't like the Metaverse idea and the gap down gave me an opportunity to get rid of one of the few things in my portfolio that I wasn't comfortable with. Facebook is great for sharing photos and stuff with friends, particularly those oversees but it is feeling tired to me. Few people post on it now, but I check it a couple of times a week for down time. Used to be all the rage, not now.

I have 5 quantitative tests that I carry out on every share I own and have refreshed my Facebook dashboard for you to answer your question. The only one that is green of the 5 is valuation and sure enough Stockopedia has Facebook's value score increasing and momentum is decreasing.

I tend to prefer high quality, high momentum stocks.

So it's a no from me !!!

Thanks for the question, much appreciated

Harry
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Newbie on 11/03/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 11 March 2022 16:01:50(UTC)
#107

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,818
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)





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Mr GL
Posted: 12 March 2022 09:21:59(UTC)
#109

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Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


I too have followed BRK/b and been in and out of it a few times... I think it tends to outperform in the early stages of a market correction as many marginal investors use it as a cash buffer / wealth preserver proxy... but when things get really bad they rotate out of BRK (as it would have significantly outperformed on the way down) and buy into the truly beaten up stuff... I dont own it currently but am interested in opinions from other perspectives...
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Harry Trout on 13/03/2022(UTC), Raj K on 13/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 13 March 2022 07:15:22(UTC)
#108

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Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


Hi Raj, thanks for the question asking me my opinion on Berkshire Hathaway. In short I like it, it gives me good performance at low volatility.

The reason I like it is because BRK invests in value stocks that I probably wouldn't - my process tends put me in momentum stocks. So BRK is a diversifier for me.

I like it even more since the pick up of Apple in 2016 which has turned out to be a classic Buffet value move. However, as Apple is also my biggest stock the diversification qualities are slightly reduced - so BRK is top 20 today not top 10 as it used to be.

I don't apply the same process to trusts as I do stocks (i.e. my 5 tests) and I would say if I had more BRK I might be looking to trim here in my ISA not add. I have plenty of cash so I am holding as it progresses it's strong Stage 2 move since the Stage 3 breakout at the end of last year.

Price today is above my quick moving average (the 5 week EMA) and I wouldn't ordinarily add until there was a tennis ball bounce back to my medium moving average (the 23 week EMA). So I would add at around $300 currently and probably will if it gets there.

Lastly, my approach is entirely quantitative and so I try not have opinions if that makes sense. So, when it comes to trusts, I would be largely relying on (a) momentum of sector performance against other sectors, (b) momentum against other trusts in the same sector and (c) relative strength to VWRL particularly in the 3 month and 6 month timeframe.

In other words, and to answer your point, I try not to have opinions on where the economy is going - I let the numbers do the talking.

My best guess today is that my overall portfolio going forward might look more like VWRL + individual stocks + (cash and gold) and less active trusts.

If the individual stocks thing doesn't work out I'm going full VWRL, but the individual stocks have done well so far since 2012 (and I really enjoy it!). Happy to provide more detail on that if anyone wants it.

Hope this helps and thanks again

Harry
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Raj K on 13/03/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 13 March 2022 11:38:46(UTC)
#110

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,818
Mr GL;213585 wrote:
Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


I too have followed BRK/b and been in and out of it a few times... I think it tends to outperform in the early stages of a market correction as many marginal investors use it as a cash buffer / wealth preserver proxy... but when things get really bad they rotate out of BRK (as it would have significantly outperformed on the way down) and buy into the truly beaten up stuff... I dont own it currently but am interested in opinions from other perspectives...


I wonder if Berskshire can outperform the S&P for the next ten years ? As the S &P is overvalued and Berkshire is valued at a more modest multiple of its operating earnings it could be quite possible. Also the regulated energy and railroad businesses should be able to increase prices if the input costs increase. I kind of see Berkshire as an index fund but with better quality and a cash pile that can take advantage of opportunities at the right prices , so value investing but doing so in good companies.
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Mr GL on 14/03/2022(UTC)
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