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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 13 March 2022 12:02:41(UTC)
#115

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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My only cross-over with that lot is a position in PHI.
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Harry Trout on 15/03/2022(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 14 March 2022 09:49:00(UTC)
#111

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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Raj K;213738 wrote:
Mr GL;213585 wrote:
Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


I too have followed BRK/b and been in and out of it a few times... I think it tends to outperform in the early stages of a market correction as many marginal investors use it as a cash buffer / wealth preserver proxy... but when things get really bad they rotate out of BRK (as it would have significantly outperformed on the way down) and buy into the truly beaten up stuff... I dont own it currently but am interested in opinions from other perspectives...


I wonder if Berskshire can outperform the S&P for the next ten years ? As the S &P is overvalued and Berkshire is valued at a more modest multiple of its operating earnings it could be quite possible. Also the regulated energy and railroad businesses should be able to increase prices if the input costs increase. I kind of see Berkshire as an index fund but with better quality and a cash pile that can take advantage of opportunities at the right prices , so value investing but doing so in good companies.


I expect Berkshire to at the very least outperform the S&P in risk adjusted terms. It also stands a good chance of outperforming in absolute terms over the long term (10 years+).

That is one of the main reasons why I am building a position in Berkshire by selling off opportunistically my tech holdings and other US holdings. I can settle in USD in my broker account so was looking for a long term "safe-ish" US holding and Berkshire ticks a lot of boxes. It is a way to reduce risk (which I need to do).

Berkshire is not exactly a wealth preservation fund like CGT/PNL etc, far from it. But it is a lot closer to being a wealth preserver over the medium to long term than a typical 100% equity fund, passive or otherwise. It therefore fits quite nicely in between my wealth preservation holdings and full on equity risk holdings. I purposefully kept it outside my ISA as no dividend tax shelter is required, nor do I expect huge capital gains. It is a slow steady compounder.
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2 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Raj K on 14/03/2022(UTC), Mr GL on 14/03/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 14 March 2022 09:51:20(UTC)
#114

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,818

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Rookie Investor;213832 wrote:
Raj K;213738 wrote:
Mr GL;213585 wrote:
Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


I too have followed BRK/b and been in and out of it a few times... I think it tends to outperform in the early stages of a market correction as many marginal investors use it as a cash buffer / wealth preserver proxy... but when things get really bad they rotate out of BRK (as it would have significantly outperformed on the way down) and buy into the truly beaten up stuff... I dont own it currently but am interested in opinions from other perspectives...


I wonder if Berskshire can outperform the S&P for the next ten years ? As the S &P is overvalued and Berkshire is valued at a more modest multiple of its operating earnings it could be quite possible. Also the regulated energy and railroad businesses should be able to increase prices if the input costs increase. I kind of see Berkshire as an index fund but with better quality and a cash pile that can take advantage of opportunities at the right prices , so value investing but doing so in good companies.


I expect Berkshire to at the very least outperform the S&P in risk adjusted terms. It also stands a good chance of outperforming in absolute terms over the long term (10 years+).

That is one of the main reasons why I am building a position in Berkshire by selling off opportunistically my tech holdings and other US holdings. I can settle in USD in my broker account so was looking for a long term "safe-ish" US holding and Berkshire ticks a lot of boxes. It is a way to reduce risk (which I need to do).

Berkshire is not exactly a wealth preservation fund like CGT/PNL etc, far from it. But it is a lot closer to being a wealth preserver over the medium to long term than a typical 100% equity fund, passive or otherwise. It therefore fits quite nicely in between my wealth preservation holdings and full on equity risk holdings. I purposefully kept it outside my ISA as no dividend tax shelter is required, nor do I expect huge capital gains. It is a slow steady compounder.


I agree i think the same, it will be interesting to see how share buy backs will progress from here on in as it would be a good indicator if Buffett and Co see it as still undervalued!
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Harry Trout on 14/03/2022(UTC)
Ben's dad
Posted: 14 March 2022 10:11:01(UTC)
#116

Joined: 18/04/2021(UTC)
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I've held BRK/B in the past and am thinking of returning. I read this last week - an analysis of the risks and rewards which you might find interesting.
https://www.investopedia...shire-hathaway-stock.asp
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2 users thanked Ben's dad for this post.
Harry Trout on 14/03/2022(UTC), Raj K on 02/11/2022(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 14 March 2022 10:17:10(UTC)
#112

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

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Rookie Investor;213832 wrote:
Raj K;213738 wrote:
Mr GL;213585 wrote:
Raj K;213479 wrote:
Harry i see Berkshire is quite a small position in your portfolio. Do you see any value in Berkshire at the moment? I have been invested in Berkshire since 2014 but reading a few articles lately, trying to guage where it will go from here indicates it may only compound at 6-7% from her on in (which may still be good if S&P500 achieves less)


I too have followed BRK/b and been in and out of it a few times... I think it tends to outperform in the early stages of a market correction as many marginal investors use it as a cash buffer / wealth preserver proxy... but when things get really bad they rotate out of BRK (as it would have significantly outperformed on the way down) and buy into the truly beaten up stuff... I dont own it currently but am interested in opinions from other perspectives...


I wonder if Berskshire can outperform the S&P for the next ten years ? As the S &P is overvalued and Berkshire is valued at a more modest multiple of its operating earnings it could be quite possible. Also the regulated energy and railroad businesses should be able to increase prices if the input costs increase. I kind of see Berkshire as an index fund but with better quality and a cash pile that can take advantage of opportunities at the right prices , so value investing but doing so in good companies.


I expect Berkshire to at the very least outperform the S&P in risk adjusted terms. It also stands a good chance of outperforming in absolute terms over the long term (10 years+).

That is one of the main reasons why I am building a position in Berkshire by selling off opportunistically my tech holdings and other US holdings. I can settle in USD in my broker account so was looking for a long term "safe-ish" US holding and Berkshire ticks a lot of boxes. It is a way to reduce risk (which I need to do).

Berkshire is not exactly a wealth preservation fund like CGT/PNL etc, far from it. But it is a lot closer to being a wealth preserver over the medium to long term than a typical 100% equity fund, passive or otherwise. It therefore fits quite nicely in between my wealth preservation holdings and full on equity risk holdings. I purposefully kept it outside my ISA as no dividend tax shelter is required, nor do I expect huge capital gains. It is a slow steady compounder.


Its amazing how certain you can be about the next 10 years.......IMO no one can tell you what will happen in the future. If it's so simple everyone would do it then it would not work. Last year we saw how many said EWI/SMT were the answer to long term investment. How many years will it take to recover the loss....don't reply as no answer even though many will try.

Simple facts when investing in IT/ICs ....when paying a premium you will underperform the underlying the shares and buying a discount you will outperform the underlying shares. Remember many of those
KL will tell us about with all their great skills can't access this market place whereas we can take full advantage of the many anomalies. Investors like CGT and myself added much value over many years understanding the many structures and many type of shares. One thing I totally agree with KL is you need to be "different"...Please don't go down the route of looking back and then believing it will all repeat itself.

To-days share price is a factor of every investor in the world and IMO opinion is the only fact you need to invest. It should be the correct price based on the balance of buyers and sellers who have all completed their research.
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2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Harry Trout on 14/03/2022(UTC), Mr Helpful on 15/03/2022(UTC)
Sugar Ray
Posted: 15 March 2022 15:31:20(UTC)
#117

Joined: 29/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 250
Talk is there is a push to replace Buffet with Greg Abel the likely successor. Anyone know anything about his credentials and is there a real risk of the conglomerate utilising a different/adapted strategy from the one Buffet espouses?
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Newbie
Posted: 15 March 2022 16:00:26(UTC)
#118

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816
Sugar Ray;214037 wrote:
Talk is there is a push to replace Buffet with Greg Abel the likely successor. Anyone know anything about his credentials and is there a real risk of the conglomerate utilising a different/adapted strategy from the one Buffet espouses?

Not really - Both Munger and Buffet had stated that Ajit Jain and Greg Abel could be appropriate successors. In fact it has been them who have been making the calls of late. Cannot see the likes of Buffet and Munger buying the likes of Activation Blizzard.

The issue seems to be more around one particular shareholder who feels that with a single person being the CEO and Chair of the Board somewhow weakens the governance of the company, despite knowingly and happily handing over cash and investing (and making monies) with Buffet serving both roles.
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Mr Helpful
Posted: 15 March 2022 16:51:29(UTC)
#113

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985
Big boy;213844 wrote:

To-days share price is a factor of every investor in the world and IMO opinion is the only fact you need to invest. It should be the correct price based on the balance of buyers and sellers who have all completed their research.


Ouch !!!
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Harry Trout
Posted: 21 March 2022 18:16:29(UTC)
#119

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

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To keep everything in one place this post is copied over from the thread Does anyone here actually analyse and value a company before they buy it?

Post was dated 6 February 2022

Harry Trout;207760 wrote:
Interesting thread. I invest in individual stocks because I enjoy both the fundamental and technical aspects.

For me everything starts with earnings growth and without that I won’t invest, so I use it as a first screener. I then try to use technicals to establish entry points. I’m whittling my process to 5 simple tests which I carry out in the following order:

1. Earnings growth year on year - is there short term earnings momentum? (must be upward trend)

2. Earnings growth long term – a quality measure (must be >10% or at least in upward trend)

3. Valuation thesis – when I model the numbers can I project a doubling in price in 5 years?

4. Relative strength – is the share showing relative strength?

5. Price – use weekly charts to try to establish a safe entry point. Technicals used – just price, volume and moving averages

So three fundamentals based tests and two technical tests.

The earnings bar is set relatively low because I am looking to stay in investments long term.

All 5 tests must be met before I start a new investment or before I top up. In reverse if one of these tests fails I will be on alert to reduce or sell altogether.

My portfolio of individual stocks is beating VWRL but I’m realistic that this is in no small part due to Apple and Microsoft which combined are 35% of my individual stocks portfolio.

I am also realistic as to whether my approach adds anything and am content that the whole thing will probably amount to the square root of sod all in the end !!!

But for now I still believe and really enjoy it ….. for now
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3 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
J-san on 21/03/2022(UTC), Ben's dad on 21/03/2022(UTC), MrFlibble on 21/03/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 01 April 2022 08:10:13(UTC)
#120

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

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Good morning all, here are my transactions for March 2022, all of which were described on the Transactions thread but summarised here also:

03 Citywire Summary 2022

Cash % fell in the month from 44.3% to 40.6%, mostly as a result of investments made but also on the modest rise in the overall portfolio itself.

I haven't been too aggressive in topping up my individual stocks because I think many are priced for perfection and thus there may well be further opportunities as the year unwinds, particularly around earnings releases.

In the meantime I shall mostly continue to drip feed into the Vanguard trackers until opportunity presents itself.

Cheers

Harry
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