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Why do you think that Germany has blocked tanks to Ukraine?
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 25 January 2023 20:41:05(UTC)
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Jonathan Friend;255153 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;255151 wrote:

Anyone that wants a real viewpoint on the conflict might care to download the Telegram App and join a couple of the direct channels. There one can then see the real truth of the situation, free of mass media filtering.

Spook's Telegram is a Ukrainian channel and there are a good number of Russian MilBlogger ones too, though harder to access.

Be warned it is not for those of a delicate disposition.

Many bits of footage shown have been recovered from phones taken from dead or captured Russian troops. It's careless to be captured with filmed evidence of one's crimes. It leaves zero room for imagination and doesn't need a narrative placed on top of it.

Having watched some of this stuff, then listening to talk of people 'learning to live together' or sitting around a table and working out a deal just sounds frankly ludicrous.


So your answer is to carry on with the war and create more such footage is it?



Yes.

The only chance for such footage to cease is defeat of Russian forces on the ground and ejecting them. If they win, the scenes will continue in 101 camps, basements and roadside graves. Stopping support merely turns a stalemate into a slaughter and refugee crisis and brutal subjugation.

Quote:


Or do you have some fantasy in mind where the good guys, who never lied about anything or committed any atrocities, will win and then all will be well?


No, all will not be well. Not for many many decades. But it will be better if Ukraine wins than if Russia wins. better for Ukraine. Better for the West. And the West can pick between the two outcomes. Doing nothing is picking the second...

Quote:


Gimme a break. I won't comment on whose phones have allegedly been found or the footage on them, or who has committed worse sins than the other. No doubt the troops on the Ukrainian side have been angels towards the Russian populations they've encountered - it's not like their government was ever oppressing those people or anything...


I don't know. I've certainly not seen footage on either Ukrainian or Russian channels of Ukrainian atrocities. But seen plenty of the reverse. Some things may have gone on, its likely. But I haven't seen any of it.

You don't have to comment. But don't accuse those that have seen the stuff of swallowing Western propaganda when you decline to see the full picture. Try it, I dare you ;-)

Quote:


We are dealing with a nuclear power that will not back down, Andrew. It isn't Team America vs a Middle Eastern or North African weakling.


The entire Cold War was a series of proxy wars. None of them went nuclear. Besides, Russia says they will not use nukes and apparently they can be trusted in what they say.

Quote:


You know better than to talk such crap. We are not going to make things better here. Best thing is, Russia annexes the parts that are, in fact, Russian, and the rest is a new Ukraine with a delimitarised zone between them. Not ideal, but sadly Ukraine's corrupt and stupid leaders ignored the pleas to stay neutral. What a mess they've got themselves and their people into. And Russia, now thst bit closer to Europe, not what any of us wanted.

Escalation isn't in anybody's interests.


So the 'best outcome' is Russia winning. Interesting.

But they aren't parts that are Russian. And the Russians signed a treaty in 1991 agreeing that. So...what makes them Russian in your eyes, when the borders were agreed and guaranteed by Russia.

As for escalation, it's happening with those 500,000 new Russian troops and 800 new(ish) tanks. Escalation is coming whether you like it or not.

Any Russians in Ukraine can return home to Russia. What, they were born in Ukraine you say? Then they are Ukrainians then aren't they.

But to think that Russia would stick to any agreement is bizarre when they utterly broke the 1991 one. You can't make an agreement with them. History shows this. Any treaty would merely allow Russia to re-arm, reform and then go for another slice. We know that because..... that is their declared aim.







2 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Simon Martin on 25/01/2023(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Jonathan Friend
Posted: 25 January 2023 22:40:29(UTC)
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What I've described isn't Russia winning, it is areas occupied mostly by Russians coming under Russian control, and the rest being in Ukraine. It is the most sustainable long term outcome now, as I say, shame it couldn't be different but idiots running Ukraine decided to be aggressive towards Russians living there, as you well know, and then decided to talk NATO membership, which Russia understandably would never accept.

More to the point, it is the outcome that will happen because Russia are not going to lose. They'd sooner see Ukraine wiped off the map than have dangerous Western countries on their frontiers. Yes, to them, we are dangerous. And history suggests they have a point.

You've somehow managed to OD on the blue pills shooting out from the TV and believe it is a simple, one sided case of good vs evil. It isn't.

Sorry, but if you genuinely think that there are cultural, genetic, and psychological differences between the average Russian and Ukraninian soldier, such that one is evil and the other is the righteous hero, then you've definitely lost the plot. It was only a couple of years ago that reports of nasty SS style militias in Ukraine were common place, although we hear less mention of those now. I'm sure they're lovely lads, just like their grandfathers.

Again, I'm not on Russia's side, although I do feel obliged to offer some balance since most other people around here and in general are swallowing the usual tripe dispensed by our own deranged masters and media psychopaths.

You all seem to get duped - every single bloody time, as if there isn't a brain cell between you. You all got conned into following the covid narrative, which was idiotic, even though wiser heads were suggesting otherwise at the time. You've all been conned by the climate emergency piffle. Conned by the "refugee" scam. Conned by the Ukraine affair, very similar to the Iraq con and various others. Conned every single time, never noticing that your wealth, culture and way of life are all being destroyed under your noses.
1 user thanked Jonathan Friend for this post.
Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 25 January 2023 22:56:20(UTC)
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Jonathan Friend;255167 wrote:

What I've described isn't Russia winning,


Yes... yes it is. it exactly is.

Quote:

Again, I'm not on Russia's side,


Advocating a positive outcome for a criminal aggressor state means yes, you are on their side. You just lack the balls to say it outright or the understanding of the consequences of what you advocate.

Quote:


You all seem to get duped - every single bloody time, as if there isn't a brain cell between you. You all got conned into following the covid narrative, which was idiotic, even though wiser heads were suggesting otherwise at the time. You've all been conned by the climate emergency piffle. Conned by the "refugee" scam. Conned by the Ukraine affair, very similar to the Iraq con and various others. Conned every single time, never noticing that your wealth, culture and way of life is all being destroyed under your noses.


What's it like being the smartest person on the internet?


1 user thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Simon Martin on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Jonathan Friend
Posted: 25 January 2023 23:22:12(UTC)
#96

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ANDREW FOSTER;255168 wrote:
Jonathan Friend;255167 wrote:

What I've described isn't Russia winning,


Yes... yes it is. it exactly is.

Quote:

Again, I'm not on Russia's side,


Advocating a positive outcome for a criminal aggressor state means yes, you are on their side. You just lack the balls to say it outright or the understanding of the consequences of what you advocate.

Quote:


You all seem to get duped - every single bloody time, as if there isn't a brain cell between you. You all got conned into following the covid narrative, which was idiotic, even though wiser heads were suggesting otherwise at the time. You've all been conned by the climate emergency piffle. Conned by the "refugee" scam. Conned by the Ukraine affair, very similar to the Iraq con and various others. Conned every single time, never noticing that your wealth, culture and way of life is all being destroyed under your noses.


What's it like being the smartest person on the internet?




Your points are simplistic. States are only as stable and viable as their underlying populations, cultures, histories, and general circumstances allow them to be. Eastern Ukraine is Russian, just as parts of Ulster are British. The people occupying those places aren't going to just disappear, and having them bullied within the borders of a "country" isn't any better than the criminal aggression from outside, as you refer to it. It boils down to a line on a map vs reality.

I don't think what I've suggested is a positive outcome for Russia. Nobody wins in this.

But if you want to do your bit for the plucky Ukrainians, get yourself a flight over there and knock yourself out. The way things are going, British troops might end up being shovelled into this rubbish and then it'll be other people paying the price for your bravado and dubious moral superiority.

There are always stupid people wanting to be involved (from a distance) and "do the right thing". That's how a million of Britain's fittest, smartest and finest young men were churned up in the first world war, and this country went from being the world's largest creditor to it's largest debtor. And for what? Nazi Germany came along and then there was even worse. An absolute waste, but obviously made some do gooders 'feel' nice inside, probably until the point their children and numerous others they knew never returned home.

Today's weaponry makes things all the more risky. Never underestimate the potential for unintended consequences. Practically every intervention I've witnessed being undertaken by our "leaders", whether economic, military, medical, or otherwise, has resulted in disaster. And they only seem to get more amateurish.

Quote:
What's it like being the smartest person on the internet?


Only thing I can say in your favour is that you haven't been conned into thinking an annual trade deficit of £91Bn and a £12Bn membership fee as part of the EU scam is a good idea.

All these cons are of a piece as far as I can see, and it is always the same people in favour of it all. They consistently win, whilst the average person is consistently ripped off.
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Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Simon TTT
Posted: 25 January 2023 23:31:39(UTC)
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Jonathan Friend;255167 wrote:


Sorry, but if you genuinely think that there are cultural, genetic, and psychological differences between the average Russian and Ukraninian soldier...



I'm not getting drawn into all the animosity on this thread but the clipped quote illustrates my feelings. As with most wars, the average Joe suffers when really most of us Joes just want the same life experience; work, friends & family, bit of money, few laughs...not many people, no matter how nationalistic, want war. Your average Russian probably just wants it all to be over as much as your average Ukrainian does. But it won't end for a long time.

I work with quite a few colleagues from the FSU and they all just shrug their shoulders in resignation. I agree with them that this will drag on for years. These wars/disputes in and around the FSU never end; Georgia, Transnistria, Ossetia, Karabakh...they all just continue, there's no end date. Ukraine and Russia were poor countries but they'll be desolate by the end of it. Economic wrecks. Tanks won't end anything, they might raise the stakes a bit but Putin is 70, he could have another 15 years in power and won't concede defeat. It'll just get slower, dirtier and most people will care less.

I personally think a lot of blame for the situation lies with Western Europe. The UK were far too passive over Litvinenkos assassination and we bent over and waved a white flag over the Skripal poisonings. The way our country responded to chemical attacks on UK soil was embarrassing and pathetic. It was a shameful moment in UK history. Putins been stretching the envelope and getting Europe in his pocket for years before striking Ukraine, the media calling him out as an idiot on deaths door are very mistaken, this has been years in the making.

As for why Germany were hesitant over tanks...no backbone, no conviction, scared of escalation. Same as the rest of Europe. IMO.
3 users thanked Simon TTT for this post.
Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2023(UTC), Tim D on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Dexi
Posted: 26 January 2023 04:04:58(UTC)
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It`s hard to see how the war can end . Russia can`t be defeated , even if they lose most of the occupied territory in Ukraine , they can gradually turn the economy over to war production and keep going for years . They have huge natural resources and lots of manpower .
It could turn into a war of attrition . Ok , the West can keep supplying weapons , but what about soldiers , what happens when Ukraine starts to run out of them ?
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Jonathan Friend on 26/01/2023(UTC), Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Dexi
Posted: 26 January 2023 04:10:23(UTC)
#89

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Spartacus;255136 wrote:
[quote=Dexi;255098]I wonder if a war crimes trial will ever get off the ground ?
Maybe not , because it might leave a certain Mr . Blair at risk of prosecution ...
Waging aggressive war.....tick
targeting civilian infrastructure....tick
killing large numbers of civilians....tick

Putin even mentioned " weapons of mass destruction " as a reason for invasion .


Dont think you can compare Blair and Putin.

The legality of the Iraq invasion is debatle, but there's no doubt Putins invasion is illegal. Also no evidence that UK/USA forces targeted civilians in Iraq or anywhere else[/quote



Unfortunately , a precedent has been set in WW2 when the Allies started to wipe out the civilian population of Germany , city by city , and that was deemed legitimate , so holding Russia to account for attacks on civilian areas might look like double standards .
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You have to change your life on 26/01/2023(UTC), Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 26 January 2023 08:26:58(UTC)
#99

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Dexi;255176 wrote:
It`s hard to see how the war can end . Russia can`t be defeated , even if they lose most of the occupied territory in Ukraine , they can gradually turn the economy over to war production and keep going for years . They have huge natural resources and lots of manpower .
It could turn into a war of attrition . Ok , the West can keep supplying weapons , but what about soldiers , what happens when Ukraine starts to run out of them ?



It can end by economic and/or political collapse in Russia.

Recall the Soviet Union collapsed, no one thought that possible. Putin's government can easily do the same. It's fragile.

There are people waiting in the wings to take the opportunity.

Military defeat in Ukraine might easily be the trigger for that to happen. It might be triggered by another mobilisation by local revolts in places like Dagestan, that came close last time with minor gun battles with recruiters and dozens killed at a training ground.

People were taken be surprise last time, next time they will be ready. Chechnya has already been exempted from mobilisation.

Or the civil war in Armenia might kick off again and result in republics leaving the Russian Federation, triggering a domino effect.

The lack of the predicted second mobilisation in January is telling. It appears it got postponed or cancelled at the last minute. Putin was slated to make an 'important announcement' but it got cancelled.

There are lots of ways it could go. My feeling is there will be some sort of conclusion before the end of the year. Though I can't say what I think the outcome will actually be.

3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 26/01/2023(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2023(UTC), Spartacus on 26/01/2023(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 26 January 2023 09:01:57(UTC)
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Dexi;255176 wrote:
It`s hard to see how the war can end . Russia can`t be defeated , even if they lose most of the occupied territory in Ukraine , they can gradually turn the economy over to war production and keep going for years . They have huge natural resources and lots of manpower .


By the same logic Russia should have conquered Afghanistan. And yet they had to give up on the project after a futile decade, despite all their overwhelming advantages on paper.

(Same can be said for the West's own more recent adventure there of course.)

In both cases "home front" domestic politics and popular opinion (war weariness) trumped any military/economic concerns. (IMHO, the main path for Putin to win this is if/when the US elects another Trump-mould isolationist president who declares this something that Europe needs to sort out for itself and washes his hands of it.)
3 users thanked Tim D for this post.
Dexi on 26/01/2023(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 26/01/2023(UTC), Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 26 January 2023 09:23:09(UTC)

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Then it was tanks, then it was missiles capable of striking 190 miles behind Russian lines, then it was jets..
and a Gulfstream Jet (for personal use) then it was battleships, an aircraft carrier, battlefield nukes..
1 user thanked You have to change your life for this post.
Newbie on 26/01/2023(UTC)
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