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Mr GL
Posted: 07 February 2023 13:51:29(UTC)
#825

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SF100;256637 wrote:
Mr GL;256635 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256622 wrote:
We can all try and second guess the true valuation on PE at this moment in time…. and I guess soem of you probably know my thoughts by now…. but everyone should bear in mind that this preliminary NAV update is an “estimate” and no more than that.

“As normal at this stage of our year end, the preliminary NAV is an estimate and remains subject to adjustment and audit. Full details will be included in the 2022 Annual Report & Accounts, which is expected to be published at the end of February.”

your intentions here seem a little suspect / disingenuous / badly intended to me - I will leave it to others to speculate on your reasons...

I believe LP is, or was, a holder of RCP.
Based on previous posts & form, I honestly think LP is simply looking out for forum members here, in a "just take it canny here" kinda way.
Thanks both for your inputs.


Yes - I believe he was a holder... however you have to deal with the facts that you have in hand and try to come to a rational conclusion...

look at what RIT's NAV has done over the last year... compare that with what has happened to public markets and then try and decide if they have produced an honest update to their NAV... it looks to me that they have reported a VERY believable NAV with a believable explanation..

Then look at what RIT's share have done over the same period and come to a reasonable conclusion as to whether the share price has reasonably reflected the move in the NAV over the time period...

NAV fell from RCP 2794 to 2388 a fall of -14.5% (not including dividends)
Share price rcp sp from 2750 to 2125 a fall of -22.7% during 2022
the discount widened significantly...

LP is seemingly unsatisfied with the fall in share price and is trying to insinuate that RIT have reported an inaccurate NAV estimate today ... despite them using standard lawyer drafted ass covering language that they used previously..

LP is therefore trying to add an element of doubt of the type of 'maybe the managers at RIT are lying to us and maybe their NAV estimate is overstating their real value at the end of December'...

I conclude that LP now appears to have an axe to grind and WANTS the share price to be lower and it trying to seed doubt and suspicion into investors minds...

IF I felt that there was potential fraud in any one of my investments I would sell immediately... but there is no evidence - as far as I can see - that RIT have not been honest... More worryingly would be IF they had claimed an unchanged NAV despite running a predominantly long only portfolio...

RIT performed badly last year - alongside pretty much the whole investment universe - equities and bonds...

I see no reason to try and imply deceit after a pretty brutal admission today... unless you WANT the share price to fall further...


EDIT***
and to add and reply to MR above re what may have happened post Dec 2022 ie YTD...
YTD RIT's share price is down a further 6.8%
YTD VWRL is up 7.7%
YTD IGLT +2.3%, SLXX +4%, HYLD +4.4%, JMG +9.2%
and
IPRV is up 12.5%

This seems a significant disconnect... risk in general is up a decent step YTD... and yet RIT's share price has continued to fall...

and yet LP seems to think RIT's shares should be lower still... doesn't seem too 'logical' to me...

So YES I would speculate from here that RIT's discount is in the low 20% region... historically very cheap...

I still have 20%+ in RCP... bought small higher than current prices... I have not felt any need to reduce this today... and wont add as I am at my max position limit...
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Phil 2 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Robert D on 07/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Logic Prophets
Posted: 07 February 2023 14:20:35(UTC)
#823

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SF100;256637 wrote:
Mr GL;256635 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256622 wrote:
We can all try and second guess the true valuation on PE at this moment in time…. and I guess soem of you probably know my thoughts by now…. but everyone should bear in mind that this preliminary NAV update is an “estimate” and no more than that.

“As normal at this stage of our year end, the preliminary NAV is an estimate and remains subject to adjustment and audit. Full details will be included in the 2022 Annual Report & Accounts, which is expected to be published at the end of February.”

your intentions here seem a little suspect / disingenuous / badly intended to me - I will leave it to others to speculate on your reasons...

I believe LP is, or was, a holder of RCP.
Based on previous posts & form, I honestly think LP is simply looking out for forum members here, in a "just take it canny here" kinda way.
Thanks both for your inputs.


Thanks SF… that is exactly my intentions.

I might be completely wrong of course but I simply don’t believe that PE can escape the reality of the era we are now in…. it’s impossible.
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Mr Bean on 07/02/2023(UTC), Guest on 07/02/2023(UTC)
Logic Prophets
Posted: 07 February 2023 14:36:29(UTC)
#826

Joined: 23/07/2018(UTC)
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Mr GL;256657 wrote:
SF100;256637 wrote:
Mr GL;256635 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256622 wrote:
We can all try and second guess the true valuation on PE at this moment in time…. and I guess soem of you probably know my thoughts by now…. but everyone should bear in mind that this preliminary NAV update is an “estimate” and no more than that.

“As normal at this stage of our year end, the preliminary NAV is an estimate and remains subject to adjustment and audit. Full details will be included in the 2022 Annual Report & Accounts, which is expected to be published at the end of February.”

your intentions here seem a little suspect / disingenuous / badly intended to me - I will leave it to others to speculate on your reasons...

I believe LP is, or was, a holder of RCP.
Based on previous posts & form, I honestly think LP is simply looking out for forum members here, in a "just take it canny here" kinda way.
Thanks both for your inputs.


Yes - I believe he was a holder... however you have to deal with the facts that you have in hand and try to come to a rational conclusion...

look at what RIT's NAV has done over the last year... compare that with what has happened to public markets and then try and decide if they have produced an honest update to their NAV... it looks to me that they have reported a VERY believable NAV with a believable explanation..

Then look at what RIT's share have done over the same period and come to a reasonable conclusion as to whether the share price has reasonably reflected the move in the NAV over the time period...

NAV fell from RCP 2794 to 2388 a fall of -14.5% (not including dividends)
Share price rcp sp from 2750 to 2125 a fall of -22.7% during 2022
the discount widened significantly...

LP is seemingly unsatisfied with the fall in share price and is trying to insinuate that RIT have reported an inaccurate NAV estimate today ... despite them using standard lawyer drafted ass covering language that they used previously..

LP is therefore trying to add an element of doubt of the type of 'maybe the managers at RIT are lying to us and maybe their NAV estimate is overstating their real value at the end of December'...

I conclude that LP now appears to have an axe to grind and WANTS the share price to be lower and it trying to seed doubt and suspicion into investors minds...

IF I felt that there was potential fraud in any one of my investments I would sell immediately... but there is no evidence - as far as I can see - that RIT have not been honest... More worryingly would be IF they had claimed an unchanged NAV despite running a predominantly long only portfolio...

RIT performed badly last year - alongside pretty much the whole investment universe - equities and bonds...

I see no reason to try and imply deceit after a pretty brutal admission today... unless you WANT the share price to fall further...


EDIT***
and to add and reply to MR above re what may have happened post Dec 2022 ie YTD...
YTD RIT's share price is down a further 6.8%
YTD VWRL is up 7.7%
YTD IGLT +2.3%, SLXX +4%, HYLD +4.4%, JMG +9.2%
and
IPRV is up 12.5%

This seems a significant disconnect... risk in general is up a decent step YTD... and yet RIT's share price has continued to fall...

and yet LP seems to think RIT's shares should be lower still... doesn't seem too 'logical' to me...

So YES I would speculate from here that RIT's discount is in the low 20% region... historically very cheap...

I still have 20%+ in RCP... bought small higher than current prices... I have not felt any need to reduce this today... and wont add as I am at my max position limit...


That is a right old rant GL… you’ve taken me quite by surprise!

If you think that anyone on this forum can influence the share price on anything at all, never mind something a big as RCP, then words escape me and I think that maybe you might be out of your depth with all of this constant trading.

I have questioned every (seemingly the only way is up) PE valuations recently and not just the ones held in RCP (I have huge respect for this fund) and all of my posts show that.

I am a long term investor and therefore believe that anyone already holding RCP will do very well over the long term.
However, I am not too confident of anyone trading it just because it is on a discount and I wonder if your unwarranted rant is a result of you having too large a trade.

I have no “axe to grind”… or with the likes of HVPE… I just don’t believe the PE NAV’s. If I did, it would not matter what the share price of RCP was… I’d have it back in my portfolio.

I like and follow most of your posts GL but I think you have just had a bit of a meltdown… having a bad day.. ?

Chill :-)
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3 users thanked Logic Prophets for this post.
Mr GL on 07/02/2023(UTC), Aminatidi on 07/02/2023(UTC), Guest on 07/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 07 February 2023 14:38:37(UTC)
#824

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
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Logic Prophets;256659 wrote:
SF100;256637 wrote:
Mr GL;256635 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256622 wrote:
We can all try and second guess the true valuation on PE at this moment in time…. and I guess soem of you probably know my thoughts by now…. but everyone should bear in mind that this preliminary NAV update is an “estimate” and no more than that.

“As normal at this stage of our year end, the preliminary NAV is an estimate and remains subject to adjustment and audit. Full details will be included in the 2022 Annual Report & Accounts, which is expected to be published at the end of February.”

your intentions here seem a little suspect / disingenuous / badly intended to me - I will leave it to others to speculate on your reasons...

I believe LP is, or was, a holder of RCP.
Based on previous posts & form, I honestly think LP is simply looking out for forum members here, in a "just take it canny here" kinda way.
Thanks both for your inputs.


Thanks SF… that is exactly my intentions.

I might be completely wrong of course but I simply don’t believe that PE can escape the reality of the era we are now in…. it’s impossible.


over the last 13 months - since the start of 2022 -
VWRL has fallen.... 3.45%...
VLS 100% - fallen 1.8%

HVPE has fallen 23%..
PIN fallen 21%

how much more do you think PE should fall?

since the start of 2022 RCP has fallen 28%....

How much more do you think RCP should fall?
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2 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Big boy on 07/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 07 February 2023 14:45:52(UTC)
#827

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127

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Logic Prophets;256661 wrote:

I like and follow most of your posts GL but I think you have just had a bit of a meltdown… having a bad day.. ?

Chill :-)


its not a meltdown - but I need more than just insinuation to work out if I am wrong here... I have over 500k invested in RIT... this is the biggest position I hold... and I want you or anyone to question and challenge each and every decision I make - no issue with that - but we have to deal with facts and logic - and not get sucked into postulating fraud / dishonesty etc...

So - sorry I questioned your intentions earlier... BUT please try to use the facts at hand when framing a debate... we'll all go crazy if we lose trust ... panics occur because investors lose trust... and from your response just now I can see that was not your intention... but from my response you can see how I am a little anxious...
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5 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Big boy on 07/02/2023(UTC), wow400 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Logic Prophets on 07/02/2023(UTC), Rocca Billy on 08/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 07 February 2023 15:00:32(UTC)
#831

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,679
Mr GL;256667 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256661 wrote:

I like and follow most of your posts GL but I think you have just had a bit of a meltdown… having a bad day.. ?

Chill :-)


its not a meltdown - but I need more than just insinuation to work out if I am wrong here... I have over 500k invested in RIT... this is the biggest position I hold... and I want you or anyone to question and challenge each and every decision I make - no issue with that - but we have to deal with facts and logic - and not get sucked into postulating fraud / dishonesty etc...

So - sorry I questioned your intentions earlier... BUT please try to use the facts at hand when framing a debate... we'll all go crazy if we lose trust ... panics occur because investors lose trust... and from your response just now I can see that was not your intention... but from my response you can see how I am a little anxious...




Logic P …please bear with some of us who have developed skills and knowledge from being in the market place. My skills are understanding markets and dealing with facts rather than writing long and detailed non-facts which many members believe to be fact/correct.. MRGL have experience at the coalface and this can not be taught at University etc. but I do appreciate many find this difficult.
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The Pink Panther
Posted: 07 February 2023 15:19:49(UTC)
#836

Joined: 09/01/2023(UTC)
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For me it’s a sizeable bet, Mr GL. I don’t think anyone is questioning the long-term pedigree of RCP. But things change. Some ‘helpful’ questions (I hope).

- Do you need to take such risk concentration on a single fund? How much is logic driven vs. opportunistic?
- Has the new (ish) fund manager added value?
- Has the retirement of Lord R hit hard? Just the name can open doors and get deals despite naysayers.
- Is this a fund that will reward in a ‘higher than usual’ inflationary environment?
- Investor confidence returning aside (the biggie), what will drive the discount to NAV to close?

If I was a holder I’d be disappointed that at least some of the hedges didn’t work out as mentioned earlier today. Doesn’t make sense. I don’t think anyone is questioning your investing approach either. Far from it.
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S Dobbo on 07/02/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 07/02/2023(UTC), Logic Prophets on 07/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Rocca Billy on 08/02/2023(UTC), Strangways on 08/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Logic Prophets
Posted: 07 February 2023 20:02:52(UTC)
#829

Joined: 23/07/2018(UTC)
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Mr GL;256667 wrote:
Logic Prophets;256661 wrote:

I like and follow most of your posts GL but I think you have just had a bit of a meltdown… having a bad day.. ?

Chill :-)


its not a meltdown - but I need more than just insinuation to work out if I am wrong here... I have over 500k invested in RIT... this is the biggest position I hold... and I want you or anyone to question and challenge each and every decision I make - no issue with that - but we have to deal with facts and logic - and not get sucked into postulating fraud / dishonesty etc...

So - sorry I questioned your intentions earlier... BUT please try to use the facts at hand when framing a debate... we'll all go crazy if we lose trust ... panics occur because investors lose trust... and from your response just now I can see that was not your intention... but from my response you can see how I am a little anxious...


I have never said that you are wrong GL… no “insinuations”….you might actually make a fortune from this trade…I stated that I may be wrong! I’d prefer someone to tell me why I am wrong.. fundamentals etc.
All I have consistently questioned is how PE can continue to increase in value whilst the rest of the investment world is going through/facing a de-rating due to higher funding costs, higher inflation, predicted future lower earnings, higher capex, uncertainty from an escalating war in Europe etc.
No one has answered my concerns on this including BB who seems to believe he is a trading genius and the rest of us are a bit dim and need to follow his lead!

All that aside, consider this…you have traded £500k (20% of your wealth) because the sp has dropped 20-25% ? I’m sorry if you don’t like it but I think that is totally nuts. If I am wrong then what is your rationale?
If you think that anything said on a forum dominated by maybe a dozen regular posters can jeopardise
sentiment on that trade or anything at all is delusional.

Come on GL… get a grip! Just because a share price drops… it doesn’t automatically make it good value but good luck… I really hope that it works out :-)
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Thrugelmir on 07/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 08/02/2023(UTC), Aminatidi on 08/02/2023(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 07 February 2023 20:29:49(UTC)
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Logic Prophets;256718 wrote:

No one has answered my concerns on this


After the longest bull market in history. Which is a separate discussion in itself. Understandable that investors may still not be open minded to what potentially lies ahead. Easy to be dismissive and correlate pessimism with negativity. Rather than realism. As the long road ahead is still clouded in fog and uncertainty. 24/7 news coverage simply creates endless noise, speculation, dissection of every word spoken, impatience etc. Whereas the economy and individual companies move at a far slower glacial speed.
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Phil 2 on 07/02/2023(UTC), Guest on 08/02/2023(UTC), Logic Prophets on 08/02/2023(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 08/02/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 08/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 08 February 2023 06:57:32(UTC)
#832

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Logic Prophets;256622 wrote:
We can all try and second guess the true valuation on PE at this moment in time…. and I guess some of you probably know my thoughts by now…. but everyone should bear in mind that this preliminary NAV update is an “estimate” and no more than that.

“As normal at this stage of our year end, the preliminary NAV is an estimate and remains subject to adjustment and audit. Full details will be included in the 2022 Annual Report & Accounts, which is expected to be published at the end of February.”


OK.. lets try this...

I have clearly stated why I think Rit is a buy here ... based off discount, recent NAV announcement, using comparable index movements, It's own track history...

What do you think?

Is RIT is a Buy, Sell or Hold here? SP at close was 1986p
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