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Robin
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:24:22(UTC)
#887

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I'm out. This could be the worst decision made in some time. I have been faithful to RIT for such a long time on the basis this trust will always come good. But my concern is that it will not easily recover from the damaged sentiment towards it for some time - I held expecting some sort of bounce before now, but the lack of that bounce (watch this space) suggests to me a shift in feeling towards RIT. Having read and considered carefully I have reached the point where I would not add today because I am not sure it can fulfill the role it had in my portfolio. Nothing lasts forever. I anticipate a bounce and a longer term recovery, but on everything I have read and looked at, I had already reduced by 2% to purchase Majedie, and have today moved the rest of my holding across to CLDN. Whatever happens to RIT from here, I am not comfortable holding and think CLDN (and hopefully MAJE) can fulfill the role RIT was supposed to play. Clearly this is not a 'trading' decision. Could be the point for you to all top up further.
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11 users thanked Robin for this post.
dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC), Rory Barr on 17/02/2023(UTC), Mostly Retired on 17/02/2023(UTC), Fell Walker on 17/02/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 17/02/2023(UTC), Strauss on 17/02/2023(UTC), SF100 on 17/02/2023(UTC), AlanT on 17/02/2023(UTC), smg8 on 18/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 19/02/2023(UTC), Andy JR on 20/02/2023(UTC)
Strangways
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:32:56(UTC)
#884

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dlp6666;258032 wrote:
Thrugelmir;258028 wrote:
RIT currently appears to be something of a meme stock.


Yes, but I wouldn't have thought someone with experience like Max King / Moneyweek etc. - unlike many fickle investors - would fail to have a good grasp of a company's fundamentals.

Max King is a twat. If you hunt around you can find him on some of Jonathan Davies’s otherwise excellent podcasts. The comments about RCP may or may not be accurate, but I wouldn’t place any strength on his views.
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2 users thanked Strangways for this post.
dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC), Steve U on 17/02/2023(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:34:36(UTC)
#891

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In my mind the challenge with RIT and CLDN's discounts narrowing required something that looks like this:

Discount narrowing = (X Y Z) - Any family ownership

But if you invest in say HVPE or ATT then:

Discount narrowing = X

Basically the more focused the asset or sector allocation is the better chance of discount narrowing because fewer variables need to outperform the market. An increase in one variable of many is not enough.
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Mr GL on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC)
Mostly Rational
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:38:19(UTC)
#878

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Mr GL;258038 wrote:
I am holding this lumpy position in a vacuum - I was expecting their Jan month end NAV to come out the last few days... I have all weekend to wind myself up as to why its not out yet


While this is unusually late, the 20th would still be just within the expected window. The market probably won't care what it says anyway, while it will reinforce the opinion of those of us who took a contrarian position in RCP.

Seeing the SP drop like this hasn't been pleasant, but it's all been on no news so if you thought it was a bargain before and were willing to wait for the market to agree with you, you should have even more conviction in your holding now.

If it's getting to you, maybe you've overestimated the percentage of your portfolio's performance that you're comfortable to have depend on the quality of your own judgement, something to think about for the future.
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3 users thanked Mostly Rational for this post.
Mr GL on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 19/02/2023(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:39:23(UTC)
#893

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the eternal thread for, and in no particular order:

Share price matters the most
NAV price matters the most
PE is great
PE is sh*t
China is great
China is sh*t
Hedging is great
Hedging is sh*t
optimists
pessimists
performance short term
performance long term
benchmarks matter
benchmarks don't matter
investors
gamblers
traders
bargain hunters
salesmen
gobshites
experts
storytellers
diversification
concentration
ambiguity

Missed anything?
Good luck everyone!!
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4 users thanked SF100 for this post.
Mr GL on 17/02/2023(UTC), John Rodger on 17/02/2023(UTC), Tim D on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:48:36(UTC)
#892

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Johan De Silva;258057 wrote:
In my mind the challenge with RIT and CLDN's discounts narrowing required something that looks like this:

Discount narrowing = (X Y Z) - Any family ownership

But if you invest in say HVPE or ATT then:

Discount narrowing = X

Basically the more focused the asset or sector allocation is the better chance of discount narrowing.


HVPE / PIN = 100% PE funds -> 45% discounts (ish)

assume a 50% PE fund with rest in liquid assets that dont 'require' a discount -> 22.5% discount?

SO -
RIT = 41% PE (45% * 0.41) = 18.45% discount (assuming the rest of their portfolio adds nothing and requires a zero discount)
CLDN 61% PE (45% * 0.61) = 27.5% discount (assuming the rest of their portfolio adds nothing and requires a zero discount)

Actual discount
RIT -> 20% (off end of Dec NAV)
CLDN -> 28% (off end of Jan NAV)

Purely trying to asses rich / cheap discounts based off PE 'risk' they don't seem a long way away from 'fair value'

However - the long term performance of HVPE is better than CLDN which is better than RIT.... ie the long term performance is very much driven by historical PE boom times? Are we moving into a non-PE boom time and so would need more strings to our bows (arrows to quivers etc)

Purely thinking in terms of PE risk and discounts - RIT and CLDN discounts are 'in-line' ish with the very widest discounts found in the PE listed vehicles...

good luck everyone...

(and the above takes no account of family ownership which may argue for wider discounts and so makes CLDN a little rich with its much higher Cazer 48% ownership versus RITs 21% Rothschild)
(and the above takes no account of the Non-PE portfolios in CLDN and RIT and that they may be the areas for stronger upside versus PE in the future..)
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7 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Johan De Silva on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC), PH . on 17/02/2023(UTC), bill xxxx on 17/02/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 17/02/2023(UTC), Sheerman on 19/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 19/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:52:08(UTC)
#879

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Mostly Rational;258059 wrote:
Mr GL;258038 wrote:
I am holding this lumpy position in a vacuum - I was expecting their Jan month end NAV to come out the last few days... I have all weekend to wind myself up as to why its not out yet


While this is unusually late, the 20th would still be just within the expected window. The market probably won't care what it says anyway, while it will reinforce the opinion of those of us who took a contrarian position in RCP.

Seeing the SP drop like this hasn't been pleasant, but it's all been on no news so if you thought it was a bargain before and were willing to wait for the market to agree with you, you should have even more conviction in your holding now.

If it's getting to you, maybe you've overestimated the percentage of your portfolio's performance that you're comfortable to have depend on the quality of your own judgement, something to think about for the future.


re timing of Jan NAVs and annual reports... I have already checked going back 10 years... If they announce Jan's NAV on Monday this will be 8 days before the anticipated annual report and so the shortest interval in my sample survey...

Jan NAVs Annual Reports days between
mon 20th? …....... 28/02/2023 …....... 8
17/02/2022 …....... 01/03/2022 …....... 12
05/02/2021 …....... 02/03/2021 …....... 25
17/02/2020 …....... 03/03/2020 …....... 15
18/02/2019 …....... 05/03/2019 …....... 15
14/02/2018 …....... 27/02/2018 …....... 13
15/02/2017 …....... 28/02/2017 …....... 13
16/02/2016 …....... 01/03/2016 …....... 14
16/02/2015 …....... 27/02/2015 …....... 11
14/02/2014 …....... 06/03/2014 …....... 20
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Phil 2 on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC)
Strangways
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:53:17(UTC)
#894

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RCP taking a pounding this afternoon.
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Mr GL
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:56:12(UTC)
#537

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smg8;258040 wrote:
Thrugelmir;258034 wrote:
smg8;258030 wrote:
I

I also fully accept 3 years is a short timeframe, but it's surely these exact type of volatile markets in which vehicles like this are meant to excel.



What type of vehicle do you regard it as?


When things didn't keep up with the index in the bull run, a common rebuttal was "aha but wait until the index tanks, it's been led higher by x stocks/x US exposure etc". If those same investments then tank on the way down, it begs the question what is the point of them.

Thrugelmir;258034 wrote:
I doubt the family care much about short term volatility.


This comes back to my previous point, it gets cut a lot of slack because of "the family". Slap a Janus Henderson or Invesco badge on this IT and it would be perceived completely differently.


using the end of dec NAV RIT's NAV TR has approximately matched the performance of VWRL over 10 years... (approximately - I dont have a way to precisely work out VWRL 10 year TR to compare with the AIC's 10yr TR figure for RIT of 140%. https://www.theaic.co.uk...al-partners/performance )
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2 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Strangways on 17/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 17/02/2023(UTC)
Logic Prophets
Posted: 17 February 2023 13:57:43(UTC)
#877

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Mr GL;258038 wrote:
dlp6666;258025 wrote:
Mr GL;258016 wrote:


I hold the following - all of which mentioned in this article

10.6% Capital Gearing CGT
5.7% Personal Assets PNL
6.0% Ruffer RICA
19.8% RIT Capital RCP
5.1% Caledonia CLDN
....



Thanks, again, for your more reassuring perspective on RCP (which over recent years I've been adding to my SIPP, though now doubting a bit the wisdom of that).

Does today's c.2% share price fall prompt you to increase your already high stakes in RCP, or do you feel the discount probably isn't yet sufficiently high as to properly reflect the 'uncertain' PE position?




I think you need to be very careful following a stranger on the internet...
Also my financial situation is my own to worry about...
I was up 15% last year... this gives me a lot of room to be wrong and still be well up on my performance targets
I have self imposed 20% position limit - I wont break this
A lot of seasoned and sensible heads on this site think I am bonkers for having 20% in RIT - they may be right
I am holding this lumpy position in a vacuum - I was expecting their Jan month end NAV to come out the last few days... I have all weekend to wind myself up as to why its not out yet
I am not going to advise you on what I plan to do in order to influence what you do... I will keep reporting what I have done
RIT is becoming an obsession for me - and this is a bad situation for an investor / trader to get into... just look how sensitive I am every time LP repeats his concern a bout PE / RIT - I am maybe dismissing opposing viewpoints too easily


You should relax GL…even if I am right about PE… it’s not as though you need to sell tomorrow to fund your mortgage or school fees etc… you just stay in there for a bit longer than you initially anticipated.

This constant trading lark is not good for your health or wealth. If I remember correctly…. you have accumulated a pot that most could only dream of and I don’t see the need to trade so frequently in an attempt to beat the market by the odd point or two. Maybe you should read about the ‘Gotrocks family’ again (presuming everyone has read about them).

However… love your honesty and and I hope you are right as we all win.

P.s, yes.. I saw the comparison to in the report to CGT, PNL, RICA etc.. bonkers. However, the bit that I picked up on the most was the bit about people buying trusts just because of the discount…. :-)
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6 users thanked Logic Prophets for this post.
Fell Walker on 17/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 17/02/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 17/02/2023(UTC), Mr Bean on 17/02/2023(UTC), Sheerman on 19/02/2023(UTC), lindsay Morrison2 on 20/02/2023(UTC)
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