Old Jock;267791 wrote:Apologies for being pedantic, but I think (?) inflation only erodes the real terms value of the debt, it doesn't repay it. The only way you actually repay it is by running a budget surplus.
And a budget surplus means either cutting spending or increasing aggregate tax revenue.
And the obvious way I think to raise aggregate tax revenue is to grow the economy, which for me is where the root of the problem lies.
Also as well as inflation eroding the real terms value of the debt it unfortunately makes everyone poorer, which is potentially the worst of all problems.
At some point the country has to start living within its means, otherwise we're heading for problems one way or another. The Covid lockdown has turned out to be a financial disaster, it's given us an even bigger debt pile and stoked inflation due to fiscal/monetary stimulus and knackered global supply chains. Although you can argue the genesis of this was easy money and never restoring interest rates to sensible levels after the GFC.
The UK is far too obsessed in my view with jacking up house prices to make people feel good, Meanwhile the Germans run a far lower debt to GDP because they're culturally averse to hyperinflation due to their history, and the Japanese get away with even more extreme debt to GDP because (I'm guessing) of their still powerful export economy.
I don't think a quiet default is an option really - it wouldn't be quiet and it would be catastrophic for the economy as we'd be regarded as the Argentina of Europe by overseas investors for a long time.
Sadly I think I'm going to pop my clogs well before any politician grasps the nettle!
100%
And there are links with demographic trends.
The Japanese take the view that a declining population will bring benefits as well as disbenefits, and that importing massive numbers of foreigners in an attempt to make productivity gains could have various adverse side effects and not actually be a workable or sustainable response to whatever the problems are, so they aim for technological solutions. Automation, robotics, etc. They are miles ahead of us in these respects.
The solution here seems to be: let's take the lazy route, bring in millions of people each decade in the hope of suppressing wages and getting an extra 0.1% of GDP growth, overwhelm the NHS and public services generally, the housing market and infrastructure, and hope it all works out. Let's not worry too much about the actual skills of those coming here or that a large number won't be paying any tax, or what the social and cultural implications might be. In fact, whilst we're at it, let's introduce a raft of laws to penalise anybody who dares to question or criticise our reckless gamble and endlessly harass the native population with a stream of gas lighting propaganda.
What we really need are significant cuts to public spending; reduce the public sector by at least 50%; reduce the role of government in people's lives; be more business friendly; and reduce immigration down towards zero. Train people who are already here to fill vacancies and make it more desirable for companies and public services to invest in technological solutions - which can then also be sold to the rest of the world. With all of this, productivity will increase, government spending will decline relative to income, debt will fall, public services might adjust and be more able to cope with demand, and this country will be less crowded and more harmonious in the long run.
Or carry on as we have been...