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UK Budget Deficit / debt as a % of GDP
Tom 123
Posted: 23 May 2023 10:32:54(UTC)
#9

Joined: 13/09/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,611

Rookie Investor;267766 wrote:
Tom 123;267745 wrote:
Robert D;267739 wrote:
NoMoreKickingCans;267732 wrote:
I am not sure why anyone would expect any MP or PM to give a damn about the national debt. Most voters have no idea what it is, still less whether it is going up or down. Policians have been stealing (that is what I would call it) and spaffing away the public finances to bribe their way back into power for many decades. It only ever gets worse over time.



The national debt has not been repaid since 1694. It's a non-issue. It doesn't matter


Not necessarily true.

When debt is low and interest rates are low, debt repayment is not an issue.

However when debt is high and interest rates are high (i.e. now) debt reservicing costs eat up a bigger and bigger chunk of the governments annual expenditure. Therefore there is less to pay for public expenditure.

Can anyone find an up to date graph of debt reservicing costs to gdp for the UK? I cant find an up to date one.


But if inflation is running high as well, such as now, then debt servicing is not that much of an issue. Even more so for the debt that had been fixed at low rates. Even true for index linked debt (bonds or pensions).

With bonds off 10% and inflation 10%, the real value of nominal debt has reduced by c. 20%. The government should actually be happy about this.

Include a bit of fiscal drag, which is very evident now, and it looks like the public finances are a lot better now than in 2021.

The problem occurs when interest rates are higher than the rate of inflation and real economic output remains very low.


Yes, the overall debt pile is reduced in real terms. However the annual debt servicing payments prevent expenditure elsewhere, i.e. on public services.

So a gain to the overall pot, a lose to the year after year pot available to run public services.

No free lunch in economics. The debt has to be paid someway and by many.
Robert D
Posted: 23 May 2023 11:17:34(UTC)
#11

Joined: 06/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,481

The concept that the national debt is a burden is yet another neoliberal myth

Repaying the national debt is entirely notional. That is because whenever a government bond is due for repayment that repayment is not funded by taxation but is, instead, always funded by new bond issues.

The UK national debt represented about 250% of GDP just after World War 2 when the Labour government created the NHS, a fully inclusive state education system, the welfare state, and nationalised a wide range of key industries, all of which resulted in a period of substantial economic growth.

By 1955 it was down to about 120% of GDP and continued falling


Rookie Investor
Posted: 23 May 2023 11:32:11(UTC)
#12

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087

Thanks: 1343 times
Was thanked: 3639 time(s) in 1417 post(s)
Robert D;267777 wrote:
The concept that the national debt is a burden is yet another neoliberal myth

Repaying the national debt is entirely notional. That is because whenever a government bond is due for repayment that repayment is not funded by taxation but is, instead, always funded by new bond issues.

The UK national debt represented about 250% of GDP just after World War 2 when the Labour government created the NHS, a fully inclusive state education system, the welfare state, and nationalised a wide range of key industries, all of which resulted in a period of substantial economic growth.

By 1955 it was down to about 120% of GDP and continued falling




Not sure what you are trying to say here, but comparing debt ratios between war era and post-war era is not fair. Debt drove up to 250% of GDP because of the war, it was a one-off event and clearly would not be sustainable. Post-war, we started off at a low base where we had to rebuild our economy; there was a lot of potential and this potential was realized in the years following the war. This aided in the reduction in government debt.

I am not so sure it is to do with the state nationalizing certain services.
1 user thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
MBA MBA on 10/07/2024(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 23 May 2023 11:35:11(UTC)
#10

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087

Thanks: 1343 times
Was thanked: 3639 time(s) in 1417 post(s)
Tom 123;267774 wrote:
Rookie Investor;267766 wrote:
Tom 123;267745 wrote:
Robert D;267739 wrote:
NoMoreKickingCans;267732 wrote:
I am not sure why anyone would expect any MP or PM to give a damn about the national debt. Most voters have no idea what it is, still less whether it is going up or down. Policians have been stealing (that is what I would call it) and spaffing away the public finances to bribe their way back into power for many decades. It only ever gets worse over time.



The national debt has not been repaid since 1694. It's a non-issue. It doesn't matter


Not necessarily true.

When debt is low and interest rates are low, debt repayment is not an issue.

However when debt is high and interest rates are high (i.e. now) debt reservicing costs eat up a bigger and bigger chunk of the governments annual expenditure. Therefore there is less to pay for public expenditure.

Can anyone find an up to date graph of debt reservicing costs to gdp for the UK? I cant find an up to date one.


But if inflation is running high as well, such as now, then debt servicing is not that much of an issue. Even more so for the debt that had been fixed at low rates. Even true for index linked debt (bonds or pensions).

With bonds off 10% and inflation 10%, the real value of nominal debt has reduced by c. 20%. The government should actually be happy about this.

Include a bit of fiscal drag, which is very evident now, and it looks like the public finances are a lot better now than in 2021.

The problem occurs when interest rates are higher than the rate of inflation and real economic output remains very low.


Yes, the overall debt pile is reduced in real terms. However the annual debt servicing payments prevent expenditure elsewhere, i.e. on public services.

So a gain to the overall pot, a lose to the year after year pot available to run public services.

No free lunch in economics. The debt has to be paid someway and by many.


Debt service payments also would not be materially more difficult as long as tax receipts were to rise. Something which is expected with inflation being high and fiscal drag being enforced. But yes, it would become problematic if this were not the case, likely when nominal output grows below the level of interest service costs.
1 user thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Tom 123 on 23/05/2023(UTC)
Old Jock
Posted: 23 May 2023 12:42:25(UTC)
#15

Joined: 04/06/2018(UTC)
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Apologies for being pedantic, but I think (?) inflation only erodes the real terms value of the debt, it doesn't repay it. The only way you actually repay it is by running a budget surplus.

And a budget surplus means either cutting spending or increasing aggregate tax revenue.

And the obvious way I think to raise aggregate tax revenue is to grow the economy, which for me is where the root of the problem lies.

Also as well as inflation eroding the real terms value of the debt it unfortunately makes everyone poorer, which is potentially the worst of all problems.

At some point the country has to start living within its means, otherwise we're heading for problems one way or another. The Covid lockdown has turned out to be a financial disaster, it's given us an even bigger debt pile and stoked inflation due to fiscal/monetary stimulus and knackered global supply chains. Although you can argue the genesis of this was easy money and never restoring interest rates to sensible levels after the GFC.

The UK is far too obsessed in my view with jacking up house prices to make people feel good, Meanwhile the Germans run a far lower debt to GDP because they're culturally averse to hyperinflation due to their history, and the Japanese get away with even more extreme debt to GDP because (I'm guessing) of their still powerful export economy.

I don't think a quiet default is an option really - it wouldn't be quiet and it would be catastrophic for the economy as we'd be regarded as the Argentina of Europe by overseas investors for a long time.

Sadly I think I'm going to pop my clogs well before any politician grasps the nettle!
3 users thanked Old Jock for this post.
Jonathan Friend on 23/05/2023(UTC), Tim D on 23/05/2023(UTC), Tom 123 on 23/05/2023(UTC)
Jonathan Friend
Posted: 23 May 2023 13:28:37(UTC)
#17

Joined: 19/09/2022(UTC)
Posts: 1,282

Old Jock;267791 wrote:
Apologies for being pedantic, but I think (?) inflation only erodes the real terms value of the debt, it doesn't repay it. The only way you actually repay it is by running a budget surplus.

And a budget surplus means either cutting spending or increasing aggregate tax revenue.

And the obvious way I think to raise aggregate tax revenue is to grow the economy, which for me is where the root of the problem lies.

Also as well as inflation eroding the real terms value of the debt it unfortunately makes everyone poorer, which is potentially the worst of all problems.

At some point the country has to start living within its means, otherwise we're heading for problems one way or another. The Covid lockdown has turned out to be a financial disaster, it's given us an even bigger debt pile and stoked inflation due to fiscal/monetary stimulus and knackered global supply chains. Although you can argue the genesis of this was easy money and never restoring interest rates to sensible levels after the GFC.

The UK is far too obsessed in my view with jacking up house prices to make people feel good, Meanwhile the Germans run a far lower debt to GDP because they're culturally averse to hyperinflation due to their history, and the Japanese get away with even more extreme debt to GDP because (I'm guessing) of their still powerful export economy.

I don't think a quiet default is an option really - it wouldn't be quiet and it would be catastrophic for the economy as we'd be regarded as the Argentina of Europe by overseas investors for a long time.

Sadly I think I'm going to pop my clogs well before any politician grasps the nettle!


100%

And there are links with demographic trends.

The Japanese take the view that a declining population will bring benefits as well as disbenefits, and that importing massive numbers of foreigners in an attempt to make productivity gains could have various adverse side effects and not actually be a workable or sustainable response to whatever the problems are, so they aim for technological solutions. Automation, robotics, etc. They are miles ahead of us in these respects.

The solution here seems to be: let's take the lazy route, bring in millions of people each decade in the hope of suppressing wages and getting an extra 0.1% of GDP growth, overwhelm the NHS and public services generally, the housing market and infrastructure, and hope it all works out. Let's not worry too much about the actual skills of those coming here or that a large number won't be paying any tax, or what the social and cultural implications might be. In fact, whilst we're at it, let's introduce a raft of laws to penalise anybody who dares to question or criticise our reckless gamble and endlessly harass the native population with a stream of gas lighting propaganda.

What we really need are significant cuts to public spending; reduce the public sector by at least 50%; reduce the role of government in people's lives; be more business friendly; and reduce immigration down towards zero. Train people who are already here to fill vacancies and make it more desirable for companies and public services to invest in technological solutions - which can then also be sold to the rest of the world. With all of this, productivity will increase, government spending will decline relative to income, debt will fall, public services might adjust and be more able to cope with demand, and this country will be less crowded and more harmonious in the long run.

Or carry on as we have been...
Tom 123
Posted: 23 May 2023 13:42:11(UTC)
#16

Joined: 13/09/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,611

Old Jock;267791 wrote:


The UK is far too obsessed in my view with jacking up house prices to make people feel good, Meanwhile the Germans run a far lower debt to GDP because they're culturally averse to hyperinflation due to their history, and the Japanese get away with even more extreme debt to GDP because (I'm guessing) of their still powerful export economy.


We need a mercantile economy.

We should be encouraging the world's chip makers to come here with free land and zero corporate taxes for a decade. Encourage the world's oilers to drill and frack here, earning royalties for the nation (instead of the un-green importation of LNG from overseas).

Sadly we will do none of this!
1 user thanked Tom 123 for this post.
Guest on 26/06/2024(UTC)
Max Bezm
Posted: 26 June 2024 11:56:18(UTC)
#18

Joined: 18/03/2023(UTC)
Posts: 56

Was thanked: 15 time(s) in 11 post(s)
I can understand the desire to bolster domestic manufacturing and energy production, but offering such extreme incentives and subsidies could come with significant long-term costs. A more balanced, sustainable approach focused on innovation, infrastructure, and environmental responsibility may be a wiser path forward. It's a complex issue without easy answers.
1 user thanked Max Bezm for this post.
kim shillinglaw on 19/09/2024(UTC)
Helen Bess
Posted: 26 June 2024 12:00:35(UTC)
#19

Joined: 14/03/2021(UTC)
Posts: 41

The UK's budget deficit and national debt levels are certainly concerning and will require a carefully balanced approach. While incentives for key industries have merit, sustainable long-term growth must also factor in environmental goals and fiscal responsibility. I usually monitor exchange rates here https://rates.fm/ Such sources can provide valuable insight as the government navigates these complex economic challenges.
Thrugelmir
Posted: 26 June 2024 12:16:22(UTC)
#20

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,330

Thanks: 3258 times
Was thanked: 7887 time(s) in 3268 post(s)
Isn't it great to see the French finally getting the stick they deserve. The UK is not the outlier that it's frequently portrayed to be. Europe as a whole is dependent on service industries i.e. tourism in a broad sense. Challenging times lie ahead. Unless there's a change in mindset.
2 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Guest on 26/06/2024(UTC), stephen_s on 26/06/2024(UTC)
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