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ARM
Thrugelmir
Posted: 15 September 2023 22:37:05(UTC)
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Mostly Rational;279309 wrote:
The valuation seems entirely irrational. They're a profitable company, but rather than having growth prospects, their market share is likely to be eroded by RISC-V in the near future.

Well, I'm not one to complain if people are willing to pay over the odds for IPOs, considering that I have money riding on private equity discounts closing.


Heavily dependent on Nvidia for revenue. Softbank did attempt to sell ARM to Nvidia apparently.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 16/09/2023(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 15 September 2023 23:22:54(UTC)
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Thrugelmir;279326 wrote:
Mostly Rational;279309 wrote:
The valuation seems entirely irrational. They're a profitable company, but rather than having growth prospects, their market share is likely to be eroded by RISC-V in the near future.

Well, I'm not one to complain if people are willing to pay over the odds for IPOs, considering that I have money riding on private equity discounts closing.


Heavily dependent on Nvidia for revenue. Softbank did attempt to sell ARM to Nvidia apparently.

Where did you get this from.

The whole beauty of ARM is that it does not technically manufacture chips - it decided that it cannot compete in that market (Intel and AMD too dominant and little ARM did not have resources to compete in manufacturing chips). Then along came Apple with the iphone (purposefully omitted things like the Apple Newton in the interest of keeping post short) and ARM designed (not manufactured) a chip to run it. Yada yada Apple then shot Microsoft (and intel X86) and went with ARM for their products. Today 80-90% of all mobile phones (apple and Android), smart devices, TV's etc run of an ARM based processor/cpu's.

The beauty is that ARM does not make any processors /CPU's whatsoever (that was Acorn computers). Instead it designs and own the intellectual property (architecture) and then license that out to the likes of Apple, Google, Samsung, Amazon, Qualcom, Huawei, even Microsoft.and so forth. They then get manufacturers such as TSM to make them.

So unless the likes of Apple (who have a massive deal until 2040 with ARM and need them for their all singing dancing M1 Chips), google (chromebooks run on ARM) etc plan on shutting shop soon, ARM still has some legs IMO.
2 users thanked Newbie for this post.
Tim D on 15/09/2023(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 16/09/2023(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 16 September 2023 00:07:35(UTC)
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However I will hold off before buying ARM stock until the frenzy is over and people realise that what they bought was not what they had been led to believe (things like initial omission from indices which may have ramped up price higher and thus a quick return) and begin to jump ship, again not fully grasping that despite non inclusion on the indices the stock and business poses a bright a long term future thanks to it diverse and low cost revenue streams and in effect a cash generative business linked to other cash generative businesses.

Who knows it may be a direct competitor to Nvidia who is all about AI. However ARM has the upper hand in that its designs and products are able to very large computational processes using low power and thus perfect for things like handheld devices, smart everyday tech such as TV, Fridge etc without them getting too hot. So whilst Nvidia is all about the AI hype ARM is more about how it achieves the use of AI in everyday devices.

An analogy may be that of a gold rush in that everyone went looking for El-dorado but the little stall selling the pick-axe and pair of jeans walked away with large volumes of cash through small sales low cost but necessity items.

Similarly my relatively inexpensive printer has to be filled with expensive ink cartridges due to a blasted chip attached to it. The printer is cheap, the ink is cheap but to get them to work, that chip is needed.
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 16 September 2023 08:07:22(UTC)
#13

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Newbie;279327 wrote:


So unless the likes of Apple (who have a massive deal until 2040 with ARM and need them for their all singing dancing M1 Chips), google (chromebooks run on ARM) etc plan on shutting shop soon, ARM still has some legs IMO.


All very valid, but doesn't help with assessing valuation.

When you have 80-90% of the market, prospects for growth are limited.

Does the valuation factor growth, or is it priced as a cash cow for the next 20 years?

When the Chinese come along with their new home grown chips (they are busy on that) then very quickly many Chinese phones will flip over to the indigenous design. Whether they want to or not.

I don't have any idea of the timescale or impact of that though, but it will likely evaporate many ARM licenced products.

Hilda Ogden
Posted: 16 September 2023 08:17:00(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;279345 wrote:
Newbie;279327 wrote:


So unless the likes of Apple (who have a massive deal until 2040 with ARM and need them for their all singing dancing M1 Chips), google (chromebooks run on ARM) etc plan on shutting shop soon, ARM still has some legs IMO.


All very valid, but doesn't help with assessing valuation.

When you have 80-90% of the market, prospects for growth are limited.

Does the valuation factor growth, or is it priced as a cash cow for the next 20 years?

When the Chinese come along with their new home grown chips (they are busy on that) then very quickly many Chinese phones will flip over to the indigenous design. Whether they want to or not.

I don't have any idea of the timescale or impact of that though, but it will likely evaporate many ARM licenced products.


It's already happening. I read the other day that the American authorities had a heart attack almost when they opened up the latest Huawei mobile phone. Inside was a chip set made at 3 nanometer architecture that the Chinese were previously thought to have been incapable of manufacturing.

Someone sanction busting? Or stolen IP? Or genuinely home grown technology? No matter, they now have cutting edge semi conductor technology.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 16/09/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 16 September 2023 08:35:06(UTC)
#16

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;279348 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;279345 wrote:
[quote=Newbie;279327]

When the Chinese come along with their new home grown chips (they are busy on that) then very quickly many Chinese phones will flip over to the indigenous design. Whether they want to or not.

I don't have any idea of the timescale or impact of that though, but it will likely evaporate many ARM licenced products.


It's already happening. I read the other day that the American authorities had a heart attack almost when they opened up the latest Huawei mobile phone. Inside was a chip set made at 3 nanometer architecture that the Chinese were previously thought to have been incapable of manufacturing.

Someone sanction busting? Or stolen IP? Or genuinely home grown technology? No matter, they now have cutting edge semi conductor technology.


It's exactly right. The West seems to have a very conceited attitude that the rest of the world depends on them and they can pull the strings.

We hear the same with "The Russians can't build new tanks and planes without Western tech". Well, just watch them....

America thought it could close down competition for Apple and Google phones by cutting off chip supplies under some bogus "National Security" threat that Huawei phones were "spies in your hands".

China shrugged and got 50,000 engineers working on a home grown "Western Free" chip technology system. Seems they have made a "Great Leap Forward".

So by trying to use muscle and bullying, the West takes one more step to irrelevance.


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Keith Cobby on 16/09/2023(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 16 September 2023 09:15:56(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;279345 wrote:
Newbie;279327 wrote:


So unless the likes of Apple (who have a massive deal until 2040 with ARM and need them for their all singing dancing M1 Chips), google (chromebooks run on ARM) etc plan on shutting shop soon, ARM still has some legs IMO.


All very valid, but doesn't help with assessing valuation.

When you have 80-90% of the market, prospects for growth are limited.

Does the valuation factor growth, or is it priced as a cash cow for the next 20 years?

When the Chinese come along with their new home grown chips (they are busy on that) then very quickly many Chinese phones will flip over to the indigenous design. Whether they want to or not.

I don't have any idea of the timescale or impact of that though, but it will likely evaporate many ARM licenced products.


That is kind of my point when I say I am not buying yet and waiting for the mania to stop.

IMO it is a cash cow and growth is a secondary factor.

So long as we push this AI and cloud computing trend, the revenues should come in and, like Apple ARM just needs to design a new model every now and then. Then the western politics will ensure that the revenues maintain itself by banning foreign tech or some other means.

I agree with your Chinese (and HIlda's) comments, that market will be lost to the west, but then again this is not new, the likes of Google, Facebook etc have been doing fine without China. On top as time goes by Mr Sleepy's policy of made in the USA may hurt themselves more in the long run.

We already have 'Made in India', China's gradual shunning of US products to take full effect. Just watch the revenues from space related (data streaming for agricultural and weather purposes) move away from the US to India, not to mention its assistance to countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh etc to take full effect.

There is a lot of tech in both China and India which is far advanced than we think. Amazon's revolutionary person-less store has been in China for well over a decade. India's tech boom has been helping the US since the 2000's, just that they are now doing it in their own country now. Countries like Africa (India and China) to have had contactless payments via their mobiles a decade ago when the west was thinking about about it would be imaginable to the average individual.

The tone of the mighty US has changed from China is backward and cannot compete with our might to that of the fact they have not fought many wars and thus do not have the practice as we do.
3 users thanked Newbie for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 16/09/2023(UTC), Tim D on 16/09/2023(UTC), Keith Cobby on 16/09/2023(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 16 September 2023 15:27:26(UTC)
#18

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I missed it earlier today, but media reports are that ARM is looking at a secondary share listing on the London market. I'm not interested, but I guess there's plenty of people who would take a stake in a London listing for ARM.
You have to change your life
Posted: 08 February 2024 08:25:40(UTC)
#19

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194

Good results overnight


https://finance.yahoo.co...=ARM&.tsrc=fin-srch


As noted by Wayne Hurdman, ARM is a Cambridge based company lost to the London Stock Exchange and that is a great pity; it would currently rank in the top-ten of the Ftse100, just below BP by market cap.
You have to change your life
Posted: 06 June 2024 16:28:35(UTC)
#20

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194

Doubled in the last six months.

What is wrong with the UK and the City of London?

One of the early results of the '16 referendum was the sale of ARM, on the back of the devaluation of its sterling value and the Brexit 1.0 Govt (Mayism) described as an indicator of "being open for business."

Current value half way between BP and Shell.
1 user thanked You have to change your life for this post.
Newbie on 06/06/2024(UTC)
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