ANDREW FOSTER;279345 wrote:Newbie;279327 wrote:
So unless the likes of Apple (who have a massive deal until 2040 with ARM and need them for their all singing dancing M1 Chips), google (chromebooks run on ARM) etc plan on shutting shop soon, ARM still has some legs IMO.
All very valid, but doesn't help with assessing valuation.
When you have 80-90% of the market, prospects for growth are limited.
Does the valuation factor growth, or is it priced as a cash cow for the next 20 years?
When the Chinese come along with their new home grown chips (they are busy on that) then very quickly many Chinese phones will flip over to the indigenous design. Whether they want to or not.
I don't have any idea of the timescale or impact of that though, but it will likely evaporate many ARM licenced products.
That is kind of my point when I say I am not buying yet and waiting for the mania to stop.
IMO it is a cash cow and growth is a secondary factor.
So long as we push this AI and cloud computing trend, the revenues should come in and, like Apple ARM just needs to design a new model every now and then. Then the western politics will ensure that the revenues maintain itself by banning foreign tech or some other means.
I agree with your Chinese (and HIlda's) comments, that market will be lost to the west, but then again this is not new, the likes of Google, Facebook etc have been doing fine without China. On top as time goes by Mr Sleepy's policy of made in the USA may hurt themselves more in the long run.
We already have 'Made in India', China's gradual shunning of US products to take full effect. Just watch the revenues from space related (data streaming for agricultural and weather purposes) move away from the US to India, not to mention its assistance to countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh etc to take full effect.
There is a lot of tech in both China and India which is far advanced than we think. Amazon's revolutionary person-less store has been in China for well over a decade. India's tech boom has been helping the US since the 2000's, just that they are now doing it in their own country now. Countries like Africa (India and China) to have had contactless payments via their mobiles a decade ago when the west was thinking about about it would be imaginable to the average individual.
The tone of the mighty US has changed from China is backward and cannot compete with our might to that of the fact they have not fought many wars and thus do not have the practice as we do.