Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,352
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Neminem Laedit;284209 wrote:ben ski;284206 wrote:Neminem Laedit;284205 wrote:ben ski;284195 wrote:Neminem Laedit;284072 wrote:ben ski;284070 wrote:Neminem Laedit;284069 wrote:Tim D;284016 wrote:Neminem Laedit;283975 wrote:Tim D;283971 wrote:Understand Bernie Madoff
Understand the Beanie Baby Bubble
Understand Charles Ponzi
Understand Railway Mania
Understand The South Sea Bubble
Understand The Mississippi Scheme
Understand Tulip Mania
...and you'll understand Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto world perfectly.
Epically, Epochally WRONG for 15 years, but still posting the same old. But.. Hey, It's a free country... I don't need to convince you of ANYTHING, for me to be rich... But you absolutely do! Well, not me specifically - you've obviously got no chance here - but your future ability to cash out your crypto wealth entirely depends on you and the rest of your hodler clan convincing subsequent waves of suckers to buy your digital beanie babies from you at higher prices than you paid for them. And the evidence is that you understand that very well: witness the constant need to come back and evangelize any time it looks like the scam is building a bit of momentum again. Noone does that for their Tesla/Apple/Microsoft etc stocks or their Fundsmith holding etc... so it's a big red flag for a pump-and-dump scheme when someone does start acting like that. As usual, 180 degrees wrong and delusional. It's not me who has a constant need to do anything. If I'd mentioned Fundsmith or Tesla, etc., rational people would just note it, maybe do their own research, or move on... Perhaps at least acknowledge the sensational returns to date. [Bitcoin knocks them both into a cocked-hat, of course] Only Bitcoin seems to attract swivel-eyed, foaming-at-the-mouth naysayers who, kamikaze-like, are determined to throw themselves under the wheels of the greatest investment in the history of the world. 15 years and counting, the evidence demonstrates beyond peradventure that you are epically and epochally WRONG in your beliefs. But that's OK, you have a right to be wrong. The more you demonstrate your wrongness, the more Bitcoin (on this thread, and in the real world) goes up! Do carry on.... Bitcoin hasn't actually generated any net wealth yet. The price is simply what people choose to transact at – so there's always a buyer and a seller, paying and accepting the same price (minus friction). It's near-certain far more people have lost money on it than made money. Most numpties don't know how to invest in anything, period. Who knew? Because no one knows whether Bitcoin is the future, or obsolete, in however many years, it's always been a punt.. Where you get in and out, and whether you make money, is random, unless you can actually know something about where it's going (which is how pump & dump schemes make money). Bitcoin's increasing programmatic scarcity can give plenty of clues when to trade - or hodl, according to your preference. https://www.linkedin.com...y-story-numbers-ndax-io
https://www.forbes.com/s...t-heres-the-difference/
Some forecasts, based on maths and history.. https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
https://pbs.twimg.com/me...=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/me...rmat=jpg&name=large
You could have got in @$15.5k less than 12 months ago. DYOR. Every clueless kid who came up in the post-covid liquidity bubble can find chartist stuff and technical signals.. But if any of them worked, you'd just write a Python script to follow them, and any hedge fund would have no problem generating double digit returns. Remember the Stock-to-Flow model? That was what everyone was using in 2019-2020. Bitcoin should be at $100k now. People just move on when it doesn't pan out that way – bet on the new nonsense. When BTC was about $4,000 in March 2019, the S2F model was published. https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 It predicted $55k after the 2020 halving. BTC actually went to $69k... So, not too shabby for "a clueless kid". [actually, he's a highly-respected quant analyst] And another "clueless kid" [ me] has already made a healthy six-figure (tax-free) profit from BTC, and I'm quite confident of that reaching seven figures... That's the same as always.. The reason S2F stuck was because it seemed to predict what happened the next year.. All the theories published that year that didn't get it right were forgotten. S2F might prove to be right, but if you just take the period since it's been published, you'd probably say it's been wrong about 75% of the time now – which might be a bit worse than drawing a random line.
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