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Bitcoin up $30k in a month...
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Tom 123
Posted: 31 October 2023 13:27:54(UTC)
#975

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Neminem Laedit;284205 wrote:


You could have got in @$15.5k less than 12 months ago.

DYOR.


or 64,400 two years ago and be down 47%.

The long term chart of bitcoin resembles a classic bubble.

It peaked with the 'everything bubble' in late 2021 and is far from ever breaching that level again.

The recent uptrend doesn't convince me of anything as a long term investor. The fundamentals of global adoption remain elusive. Its a niche hobby speculation, irrelevant to the wider economy.

These post bubble rises are common if you study the history of bubbles. The measure isn't where it bottomed 12 months ago, the measure is where it peaked and whether it will ever regain that. Bubbles rarely do, or they take a couple of decades to regain (i.e. the Nasdaq after 2000).

If you hold long enough you may get back above 64,400 with a second innings in 10 years or so, or more likely it fizzles out further from having any relevance to society.

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Tim D on 31/10/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 31 October 2023 14:35:37(UTC)
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Neminem Laedit;284209 wrote:


When BTC was about $4,000 in March 2019, the S2F model was published.
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

It predicted $55k after the 2020 halving. BTC actually went to $69k...



That was massively correlated with the availability of business loans on demand (here and in the USA). Many business owners who had no intention of repaying those loans were looking for somewhere to put them beyond the reach of the IRS and HMRC; in that respect, BTC was an attractive haven.

The total value of BTC went from $126b in March '20 to $1150b in March '21.

The US Govt has forgiven $400b of Covid-related business loans. Not sure if the HMRC has officially given up on chasing them on the UK side.

Especially since it would probably need unscrupulous operators to capitalise on a world disaster or panic, we should all hope BTC never again approaches its all-time-high. Bad luck for late adopters playing with their own money, of course.
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Tim D on 31/10/2023(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 31 October 2023 15:10:01(UTC)
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You have to change your life;284455 wrote:
The total value of BTC went from $126b in March '20 to $1150b in March '21.


I wouldn't give those "total value of <some crypto thing>" claims any credence at all.

"Total value" market-cap numbers are something we're used to from highly regulated real-world liquid markets. But crypto just freeloads on what people have come to expect from those markets. The reality is crypto markets are thin, massively manipulated (wash trading, pumps by funny-money fake dollars etc) and a lot less liquid than the shills would like you to believe (e.g a report last year from Chainalysis reckoned crypto to actually be "too illiquid for money laundering" https://www.chainalysis....idity-russia-sanctions/ ).

It's one thing to say some real-world megacorp company has a $1trillion market-cap based on 10billion shares trading at around $100 each on the NYSE/Nasdaq. It's quite another to claim some piece of crypto ephemera has a $1trillion total value based on 20million coins appearing to trade at around $50,000 each on unregulated offshore exchanges run by some extremely shady characters. About as sound logic as "I have 10 bananas and a role of sellotape, and I heard a banana taped to a wall sold for $100,000... so I'm a millionaire, right?"
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You have to change your life on 31/10/2023(UTC), Joe P on 31/10/2023(UTC), Peter61 on 01/11/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 31 October 2023 15:53:00(UTC)
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That sounds absolutely right, TimD. But, again, that doesn't help those who bought above today's price with their own money.

There is obviously a controlling amount of BTC that never comes to market. Yet the average bitcoin is traded every 40 days. Compared to the average AAPL share which is traded once a year.

So BTC is very much a traded commodity. How many traders/investors buying in after March '21 are in profit? Very few I'd wager but I'd be glad for them to share their journey.

Then there's the other potential problem: if there's a run on BTC, you won't be allowed to get your money out.
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Tim D
Posted: 31 October 2023 16:36:13(UTC)
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You have to change your life;284468 wrote:
Yet the average bitcoin is traded every 40 days. Compared to the average AAPL share which is traded once a year.

Careful, you're falling into the coiners' trap of them wanting you to think the crypto and IRL regulated finance worlds are directly comparable. But pundits reckon anything from 50% to 99% of the trades on some exchanges are wash trades. Most of those "average bitcoin" trades were completely fake.

You have to change your life;284468 wrote:
Then there's the other potential problem: if there's a run on BTC, you won't be allowed to get your money out.

I think that's an open secret. Every time crypto crashes there seems to be a wall of posts on crypto Twitter/Reddit from people complaining they suddenly can't log into their accounts.
See e.g https://www.wsj.com/arti...-money-back-11626001202
or https://archive.ph/h59ts
The slaughtering of muppets will continue for as long as muppets continue to fall for get-rich-quick stories.
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Dentmaster on 01/11/2023(UTC), Thrugelmir on 01/11/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 31 October 2023 16:49:30(UTC)
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Cannot argue with that TimD.

I too believe BTC is a scam.

Was hoping for a smooth glidepath to zero but do not now think that will happen.

Get out now.
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 31 October 2023 18:10:56(UTC)
#992

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,471
You have to change your life;284475 wrote:


Was hoping for a smooth glidepath to zero but do not now think that will happen.



Hilarious.

It's the dollar that's on that "smooth glidepath". [and all fiat currencies. They always have ended at zero, and always will]

This guy gets it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mhu6dxj7qk
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 31 October 2023 20:22:58(UTC)
#990

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
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You have to change your life;284475 wrote:


I too believe BTC is a scam.



Then it must be the first 'scam' in the history of the world where the 'scammer' makes a free gift to humanity, steps back, never profits, and is never heard from again...

https://www.forbes.com/s...ounder-satoshi-nakamoto/
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You have to change your life
Posted: 31 October 2023 21:35:31(UTC)
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Don't quite see how a tax-dodgers haven can be termed a "free gift to humanity".

Can we have link? To your drug dealer?
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 31 October 2023 22:31:26(UTC)
#994

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,471
You have to change your life;284506 wrote:
Don't quite see how a tax-dodgers haven can be termed a "free gift to humanity".

Can we have link? To your drug dealer?


My BTC is mostly safely, legally, tucked-up, tax-free, in my ISA and SIPP, thanks...

And, in the not too distant future, people will simply use their BTC as collateral for tax-free loans of fiat.

I don't recommend anyone do drugs. But of course those who do will only ever use filthy untraceable fiat. [half a $trillion worldwide annually]




Do you have any more hilarious FUD?
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