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Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 10:40:27(UTC)
#22

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,128
AAL

current support around £17.60, if it falls below, squeaky bum time.
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Wave Action
Posted: 12 December 2023 12:32:45(UTC)
#15

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;289263 wrote:
Wave Action;289252 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;289248 wrote:
We need to know what the benchmark is.

If markets all rise in 2024 then a gain would not be an indicator of success as everyone would be 'up'.

So please can you state a benchmark that we could see whether or not you have outperformed.....


I'll call the FTSE 100 and the SP500 if you want to keep it simple. They can be easily listed in columns as buy and sell and points gained or lost.
If it's shares they'll be from the FTSE and proceeds will be added to the next purchase. Again I'll list them as I go.


Meh... multiple benchmarks doesn't really work. You can't have a situation where you beat one and fail to beat another. What can one draw from that?

I'd suggest a global equity fund if equities is what you are going to buy/sell.

VWRL Vanguard All-World would be a good one perhaps. Or a simple Accumulating S&P tracker like HSBC American Index.

But like 'Highlander', there can be only one... ;-)


Well I've suggested the MSCI World in the opening post as it's got a long track record from 1969. That's near enough a global tracker ?

https://www2.trustnet.co...90100,NKOBN,F0GDT,FKU2C

If I pick a FTSE share then why not compare against the FTSE ? If I buy a FTSE tracker say ISF.L then I'm not going to compare it against a global tracker. If I buy VGOV.L ( yes it's possible to trade ) then that also won't be compared against the global tracker. Fund managers do similar surely. ? Usually a remit to outperform the chosen benchmark over 5 years.
How can posters on here compare against the global equity benchmark when they've got a mix of asset classes ? They might have 40% in wealth preservation or VLS products. The idea behind the thread is to show TA can play it's part in entry and exit positions when investing. Another point I'm not going to run a thread for 5-10 years just to convince the forum. They probably want me to fail big time anyway. ?
Well here's the forum favourite CGT comparing itself against the FTSE. How can they do that ? It's got a mix of assets. Remit isn't to outperform the FTSE surely it's to protect from inflation.

https://i0.wp.com/moneva...0-year-record.jpg?ssl=1

Scroll down half way .

https://monevator.com/ca...aring-investment-trust/

Failed for 10 years.

https://www2.trustnet.co...px?typeCode=NASX,FITCGT

Now if you go here , Monthly factsheets , and select NOV 23 report they still produce a 20 year chart. Why because it looks good .

https://capitalgearingtr.../reports-and-documents/

I won't be cherry picking. I'll list as I go along with buy and sell and a base of 100 for reference. If it's ISF.L it'll be the FTSE comparison. Just for you I'll do the same with VWRL. The calls I make from the SP 500 will be listed as US . I usually trade ISF.L in my SIPP anyway. The trading system will be explained from the chart settings as as I go along.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 12:59:13(UTC)
#23

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,128
Why don't u start with a shadow portfolio investing 10k and buy
maybe 2/3/4 shares and we all can watch the progress.
Allow £10 for a buy and £15 for a sale.
It's your thread so u can do as u like.
Didymus scores on the doors 3 to date.
Could be a lucky time to start just before xmas ?
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Wave Action
Posted: 12 December 2023 17:06:07(UTC)
#24

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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Here is the basic set up I'm going to use with 3 lower indicators and a 10 day moving average (MA). All is set in the daily timeframe. Please don't ridicule it as it's my choice and yes there's a million other ways to do this. Firstly Stochastic and Williams are overbought , where 80 is overbought and 20 is oversold . First alert is triggered. The 10 day moving average ( MA) is there as the guide and stop . Price is above so we hold. I can't realistically call from here for the thread purposes but if I was to call sell that would set the ball rolling. Basically short term the market is overbought but continuing higher that's why I'm using the 10 MA in orange. Things could change overnight so we see ? FED meeting Wednesday.
Just to mention I'm linking Bigcharts here as it very conveniently retains settings as I post. There isn't that many chart packages do that.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://bigcharts.market...oggle=false&state=11
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Anthony French
Posted: 13 December 2023 06:55:03(UTC)
#29

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,128
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mdss68
Posted: 13 December 2023 08:43:04(UTC)
#25

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
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Wave Action;289351 wrote:
Here is the basic set up I'm going to use with 3 lower indicators and a 10 day moving average (MA). All is set in the daily timeframe. Please don't ridicule it as it's my choice and yes there's a million other ways to do this. Firstly Stochastic and Williams are overbought , where 80 is overbought and 20 is oversold . First alert is triggered. The 10 day moving average ( MA) is there as the guide and stop . Price is above so we hold. I can't realistically call from here for the thread purposes but if I was to call sell that would set the ball rolling. Basically short term the market is overbought but continuing higher that's why I'm using the 10 MA in orange. Things could change overnight so we see ? FED meeting Wednesday.
Just to mention I'm linking Bigcharts here as it very conveniently retains settings as I post. There isn't that many chart packages do that.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://bigcharts.market...oggle=false&state=11


I'm not a religious man, but you know that parable about seeds and stony ground? Welcome to Citywire :)

fwiw Tradingview offers a "share link to chart" thing and mine have always appeared as I meant them to.

Many years ago I read Steve Nisson's book on Japanese Candles, it hit home. Partly the lovely descriptive names (most I've long forgotten), and the notion that this really was a war, not a picnic. For these unfamiliar, this system goes way back to the Shogun era, and was devised to better trade the rice market. I read all the western TA stuff, but my charts remain a relatively simple affair, RSI, candles, MA's. Those seeking Heads and Shoulders and all the other patterns, all the best :-)

ATB!
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Wave Action on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 13 December 2023 09:45:07(UTC)
#30

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,128
The biggest mistake made with candles is that the second day candle is
the confirmation but the obvious problem that any share trades at a much
higher/lower price, the train has left the station two day ago.
Candles show buying or selling in the share, of course if u buy
u need to buy a rising price, then keep everything crossed.
Whilst a lotta people love to buy a falling price AAL ?
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Johan De Silva on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 13 December 2023 10:02:37(UTC)
#31

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

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Simple fact…more buyers SP goes up and more sellers the SP goes down

With the use of Charts can you tell me the next stocks with net buyers please so I can follow
you in.

I appreciate a breakout point and used to see all the chartists pile in. Of course
they all turned sellers at end of account so jobbers did well. This of course was pre-decimals
so sure it must work now as many on here believe it.

Seems to me a good fun game and if it works why aren’t the clever people doing it.

Many I worked with would look at the charts as a guide but most/all from memory never added any value.
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Tim D on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 13 December 2023 10:52:48(UTC)
#34

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,124

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buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy (buy lower prices / sell higher prices)

VOD having a particularly bad run... I'm putting some more fun money in (and if it keeps going down my fun money will become my long term investment money as I rebrand my rationale to fit the price action!)....

would a chartist buy today? would a chartist sell today? would a chartist do nothing?
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Harry Trout on 13/12/2023(UTC), Guest on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 13 December 2023 11:03:43(UTC)
#32

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,128
Big boy;289401 wrote:
Simple fact…more buyers SP goes up and more sellers the SP goes down

With the use of Charts can you tell me the next stocks with net buyers please so I can follow
you in.

I appreciate a breakout point and used to see all the chartists pile in. Of course
they all turned sellers at end of account so jobbers did well. This of course was pre-decimals
so sure it must work now as many on here believe it.

Seems to me a good fun game and if it works why aren’t the clever people doing it.

Many I worked with would look at the charts as a guide but most/all from memory never added any value.


is this your hobby ? if not u are wasting your life reading this thread.
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