MBA MBA;289189 wrote:I know there was a thread on 'how much is enough' (or something like that) but this one is where I want to ask the following:
I'm by no means rich (or at least don't consider myself to be, although no doubt the social justice warriors will tell me I am), but there's a chance that within 10 years, fingers crossed, we will have enough to pay off/seriously pay down the mortgage, and generate an income of £30-40k pa between the two of us without taking any meaningful risk.
My intention at this point was to stay mainly in equities i.e. 60-80% and stay in equities for life via a bog standard global tracker. Im now thinking maybe I dont take that risk of another 'black swan' like risk, and one which this time government's cannot sheild us from i.e. QE after GFC and Covid.
Maybe I dont try and grow my wealth anymore and just call it a day (assuming between now and the next 10 years we dont have WWIII)
Have you done anything like the above?
This is coming the question from another angle.
I would try and not cross my fingers! I prefer a SWAG (scientific wild ar** guess) better than the option without the S. Then you can refine it later.
Trying to get a handle on cost of your 'everyday lifestyle' is an important aspect of answering this question and dividing this into the i) Essential Costs (food, elec, gas, broadband, mortgage, insurance) ii) Discretionary Costs (holidays, subscriptions (netflix, prime) car PCP, etc). This helps with bounding the 'running cost' with an upper and lower bound . A quick spreadsheet covering 6mths of expenditure will get you in the ball park. You can then think about 'swan/what if events' afterwards.
Getting to the point of Financial Independence to have the Freedom to Choose what you do next I think is a worthwhile goal. I wish this is something I had learnt earlier than I have. I want to continue working but doing the things that interest me and not beholden to a company. Also just step back and think how easy it is to walk out the company door when they probably pay your salary, contribute to a pension and perhaps provide the car, and even health plans so you can access private medical care quicker than the NHS. It is so much better when you can leave a company on your terms rather than their terms through redundancy, etc.
Take these two annual running cost numbers you have and x25 (4% draw down) or x33 (3% draw down) or bullet proof x50 (2% draw down). This will give you a quick sense on whether you have enough in the pot at the moment, and you can run this on the Essentials and Essentials+Discretionary.
With your Essential and E+D annual numbers take off annual state pension, private pensions and what is left you need your dividends to fund or dividends/capital growth. Does your current div income cover this today?
What will the current pot grow to over the next 10yrs? Multiple that by x1.62 (5% annual growth) or x1.97 (7% annual growth). Something not unreasonable for a global tracker...and high yield ETF....
Dont just think about the investment side, also think about building up 36mths of cash/equivalents (of which 6mths is emergency cash) as this is the historic average peak-trough-peak that you might pass through and dont want to have to sell into a trough.
Lots of bits that can be picked at here but it will give you and a first pass view as to whether it is feasible.
An essentials+ number that I have heard many say is about £20-25k for a couple with no mortgage.