Tim D;303525 wrote:@Neminem: you have anything on already? IIRC you mentioned you'd done well from from some political bets before.)
There was a period circa 2006-16 where I posted forecasts on another website for most elections, domestic and foreign, and I didn't get one wrong. Highlights were the Hung Parliament of 2010 (forecasted years in advance), the election of a South American Pope, and of course Trump 2016. Based on early returns (mostly US) I often posted the final outcome before the main-stream media "called" the election. It was fun, generated a lot of sound and fury, but no-one made money betting against me.
Trump was a steal in 2016 when he was almost universally considered a joke, before he clinched the GOP nomination.
He was out to 15/1 at some times.
https://fortune.com/2016...trump-president-gamble/
Now, he's a known quantity, not to be underestimated, so his odds are too short to trade.
My hunch is Trump. He always outperforms the polls (shy-Trumpist syndrome?) and his negatives are built-in, and seemingly irrelevant, or are even part of his appeal. The gerontology of Biden won't look any better in six months time, let alone its prospects in a second term; and then there's the nightmare of an unelected President Harris...
LBJ didn't seek another term, because he didn't think he would survive it, and didn't want to put the American people through the trauma of another death-in-office so soon after the last. I've always admired him for that and, as it happens, he was proved correct, almost to the day.
So I probably won't be betting this year, but I hope Trump wins.
Besides, I've found a much more profitable hobby, which dare not speak its name...