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Analysis paralysis
NigT
Posted: 28 May 2024 09:23:53(UTC)
#1

Joined: 26/05/2024(UTC)
Posts: 5

Long time lurker, now seeking advice as I am facing two dilemmas.

I naively sold my actively managed SIPP investments in Dec 23.
The plan was to invest in a simple two/three fund portfolio on Vanguard - FTSE Global All Cap (70%), Global Bond Fund (15%), Sterling Money Mark (15%).

The money arrived into the Vanguard SIPP in Feb, but being a prat I decided to time the market, and now I am in limbo as I am unable to pull the trigger on the above allocation, due to a fear of a market crash.

Currently I have 70% in the MMF and the other 30% I have drip fed into the FTSE Global All Cap. The total value is currently £230k. I am currently funding the SIPP with £300 a month.

Should I continue to drip feed over the next 12 months, or go all in as per the original plan?

My second dilemma...I now have a DC pension via my job, which receives £1700 via salary sacrifice. This is invested 100% into a Blackrock global equity fund. I have only had this job for a year and its value is £25k. Should I be looking to invest as per the SIPP i.e. make use of bond and MM fund?

I am 10 years from retirement.

Thanks
Dexi
Posted: 28 May 2024 09:35:18(UTC)
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Joined: 03/04/2018(UTC)
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Drip feed or lump sum ? It depends on how soon you need to access the money . Over the medium - long term ( more than 10 yrs ) it`s probably best just to dump it all into the chosen investments ASAP .
MM funds still looking OK though @ 5.25 % , although we don`t know how long before these rates may be cut .
2 users thanked Dexi for this post.
NigT on 28/05/2024(UTC), WillG on 01/06/2024(UTC)
Isaac J
Posted: 28 May 2024 09:47:53(UTC)
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Joined: 25/05/2022(UTC)
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You may have missed it, but you have some replies in your first thread: https://moneyforums.citywire.com/yaf_postst18288_10-year-horizon---Investment-choices.aspx

Citywire forums take a while before showing posts for brand new accounts so it only showed up later, but has since had replies.
1 user thanked Isaac J for this post.
NigT on 28/05/2024(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 28 May 2024 09:50:31(UTC)
#4

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
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Hi NigT, welcome to the forum

The scenario you describe is a common one and is possibly summed up as "how do I decide what asset allocation is best for me"?

Maybe to begin it's worth trying to model broadly what investment return you need by looking at your best guess of income and expenses over time.

I say this because up until January 2022 I was (unknowingly) targeting a return that was far higher than I actually needed but was also feeling very uncomfortable with the risk of a crash at that time.

So I swapped to a 50%;50% allocation and then put more focus into understanding what return I needed as opposed to the one I would like. Loads of number crunching ensued.

Check out the postings of Elspeth Beaton (formerly xxd09) who writes about it mattering less about the allocation you choose and more about sticking to that allocation through thick and thin.

I agree with this and have lived a more peaceful couple of years at 50:50. There is no point in 70:30 or higher if you are likely to panic at the wrong moment.

I'm happy to expand on how I modelled everything to find out what return I needed. But that's where I would start if it were me.

James Shack on Youtube puts out some good stuff on this topic and he has helped me over time.
6 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Helen L on 28/05/2024(UTC), NigT on 28/05/2024(UTC), Jon.Snow on 01/06/2024(UTC), Aminatidi on 01/06/2024(UTC), COYS54 on 01/06/2024(UTC), AlanT on 01/06/2024(UTC)
Helen L
Posted: 28 May 2024 10:12:17(UTC)
#5

Joined: 09/03/2022(UTC)
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Hi NigT
FYI a posting of 'bump' on a thread that's not noticed brings it back up the list rather than starting a new one :-)
1 user thanked Helen L for this post.
NigT on 28/05/2024(UTC)
Mikesmusing
Posted: 01 June 2024 10:29:33(UTC)
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Joined: 26/08/2015(UTC)
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I’d ask myself a few questions:

How big a market crash do I fear? 20%? 40%? 50%?
Why do I fear it? What are the consequences ?
How do I feel now and how will I feel then?
At what level would I decide that’s enough of a crash and I’ll now invest?
If I can’t decide to invest now, why will I be able to decide to invest then?
How much of a permanent value loss can I tolerate?
What are my objectives and what needs to happen to achieve them?
What decisions does this constrain? How much risk ( defined as permanent loss of capital) can I afford to take?
What scenarios would be a real problem and how do I mitigate them?

On at least a ten year horizon, permanent loss of capital on the 70/30 or indeed 100/0 strategy is very low.

Without knowing all the circumstances it’s impossible to give a full answer. However, the strategy of 70/30 or similar in low cost index funds looks broadly sensible. Delaying implementing is on average going to be a poor decision but markets can and do crash. Drip feeding will reduce the *regret risk’ of an immediate large crash but on average markets tend to rise and there is some cost, on average, to delaying. But make your plan and stick to it, including whatever planned actions you have for particular market outcomes. Otherwise you will get caught in the headlights and get run over by the juggernaut of events. Did I really write that? You get the idea.
2 users thanked Mikesmusing for this post.
Johan De Silva on 01/06/2024(UTC), NigT on 03/06/2024(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 01 June 2024 10:36:37(UTC)
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A good place to start, it is worth viewing Rob Berger: The Warren Buffett Portfolio -- 2 Index Funds to Rule Them All
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYr1qjrFgsc

It is about the 2013 Berkshire newsletter...
https://www.berkshirehat...com/letters/2013ltr.pdf

Quote:
Page 20:
I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.

“That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better longterm results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.”


You can replace S&P 500 etc... with your asset allocation, but its the phycology you struggle with... I would drip into the market. The advantage of this is that the physiologically you want the first batch to loose money for longer term gain.... accept you may find it annoying going up in value!
2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
AlanT on 01/06/2024(UTC), NigT on 03/06/2024(UTC)
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