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Budget - Everyone says that they won't but have they said they will?
MBA MBA
Posted: 13 September 2024 09:18:55(UTC)
#52

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

MBA MBA;318929 wrote:
Chris Giles in the FT today

Reeves should tackle excessively generous pensions taxation
The chancellor must be careful not to increase the damaging incentives in the tax system as she seeks sources of revenue


Some numbers are true and yet irrelevant. In 2022-23, for example, those paying the higher and top rates of income tax received the bulk of tax relief on pension contributions. Specifically, 17 per cent of taxpayers paid the 40 or 45 per cent tax rates, while also receiving 63 per cent of income tax relief on their pension contributions. It sounds unfair.
The true inequity, however, is different. What the statistic omits is the more relevant fact that higher and top-rate taxpayers also paid 69 per cent of income tax in 2022-23. They therefore failed to get their fair share of tax relief on pension contributions.
While it is easy to throw around statistics to justify reforms, any changes to pension taxation should focus on broad principles. These include the idea that income should roughly be taxed only once, either when earned or when received in retirement. Any reform should treat older people who have already benefited from pension relief similarly to those working and contributing now. Changes should not amplify the horrible incentives in the UK income tax system. Finally, any reforms should be practical to implement for both defined benefit and defined contribution schemes and for both private and public sector workers.
The good news for chancellor Rachel Reeves is that against these principles, the tax system is currently too generous. Sensible reforms can be married with raising money for the exchequer. But the only way of achieving all these principles is to reduce the favourable tax treatment when pensions are paid rather than when they are being built up — anything else exempts older workers and pensioners from the pain.
It would mean cutting, preferably to zero, the 25 per cent of pensions in payments (up to £1,073,100) received free of income tax. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has suggested removing about 40 per cent of this to raise £2bn a year in the long run, but eliminating the benefit completely raises around £5bn a year.
Also unjustified are the tax perks on pensions when someone dies. Unlike today, income from pensions should always be taxable if they have been inherited.
There is also a case for ministers to start progressively charging employee national insurance contributions on the receipt of private pensions, but this would be much better achieved in a gradual bigger tax reform that merged employee NICs with income tax to create a single and unified tax on income from all sources.
The reforms I have suggested would maintain incentives to work, to save and not to retire early: higher taxes on pensions would mean people working longer to receive a set retirement income. All of this is far preferable to the more common calls to provide less favourable tax relief on pension contributions, for example by restricting relief to a specific rate such as 30 per cent.
The current income tax system has absurdly high tax rates at £60,000, where child benefit is withdrawn, and £100,000 where childcare benefits and the personal allowance begin to be taken away. It offers huge incentives for people with incomes somewhat above these levels to shovel the excess into personal pensions.
But encouraging more pension saving is not the worst distortion imaginable. Restricting pension tax relief would force people to face these high marginal tax rates — the likely choice for many will be to work less, harming their current and future incomes, the economy and government revenues.
We know from previous restrictions of pension tax relief, particularly in the NHS, that working less is a choice many make when faced with tax rates over 60 per cent. Reeves can raise some revenues judiciously from excess generosity in the pension tax system. She can also do a lot of harm. Obviously it is better to do the former.


If they remove the 25% tax free i hope this is not for existing contributions and only for future ones, as difficult as that may be
Rookie Investor
Posted: 13 September 2024 09:51:37(UTC)
#36

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087

Blunt Instrument;318928 wrote:
Rookie Investor;318879 wrote:
So we seem to be going back to post-GFC and pre-COVID conditions.


I'm fairly certain the current period looks different to the pre-Covid disinflationary era, particularly that which existed post-GFC.

Reasons are well discussed by various people:

- Peak-globalisation has passed (for now at least): the global economy is becoming more balkanized, national security begins trumping cost, companies re-/friend-shore etc, all of which raise costs and represents an about-turn from the disinflationary impulse wrought by globalisation that prevailed in the few decades pre-2020;
- Energy transition: massively expensive in the near-/medium-terms, raising the costs of nearly everything;
- Demographics: shortage of younger people driving up wages, raising costs of nearly everything;
- Immigration: pressure building to reduce this, reducing potential labour market supply and flexibility;
- Fiscal policy: Governments rediscovering the power of fiscal vs monetary policy;
- Low-to no productivity growth: as discussed earlier, with productivity growth stagnant, anything which causes demand to rise (eg. fiscal stimulus) simply proves inflationary, since supply cannot respond sufficiently to meet it.

This looks like a blueprint to me for a modest - but a persistent - *inflationary bias* compared to the prior decade or three where a disinflationary bias existed. Low-to-no economic growth, poor productivity growth, inflationary bias for various reasons: I term that stagflation, but you can quibble over the label.

Note, this is NOT the 1970s - different situation.


I wonder how much of the "modest inflationary bias" will depend on the money supply; as Milton Friedman has stated, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. So if you have a tight money supply, perhaps due to higher taxes or reduced borrowing, and the lessons of the COVID stimulus induced inflation have been learnt, there is still a decent chance we end up in the disinflation conditions pre-covid.
Sara G
Posted: 13 September 2024 10:02:12(UTC)
#53

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Re the FT article, a couple of issues:

1. The author seems to assume that 25% of pension payments are tax free, but many people take all of their tax free cash upfront, meaning that all of their subsequent income withdrawals / pension payments are taxable. Is he proposing retrospective taxation for this group based on the principle of treating all existing (and future) retirees the same?

2. The combination of incentives he recommends (encouraging people to save but not retire early) will be tricky to achieve IMO. In any case, changing the framework for those who have already retired early risks upending many people's long term financial plans. It's easy to say that people can go back to work if they want more income, but, certainly in my case it would be impossible to go back to my previous career at any meaningful level. Many people will be over the SP age and have no desire (or in some cases physical / mental ability) to work again.

Much as I understand the principle of wanting to treat all groups equitably, in practice I think it could create significant unfairness unless there are very long lead times or special arrangements for those who have retired based on the existing framework.
7 users thanked Sara G for this post.
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 13 September 2024 10:07:21(UTC)
#54

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087

Sara G;318935 wrote:
Re the FT article, a couple of issues:

1. The author seems to assume that 25% of pension payments are tax free, but many people take all of their tax free cash upfront, meaning that all of their subsequent income withdrawals / pension payments are taxable. Is he proposing retrospective taxation for this group based on the principle of treating all existing (and future) retirees the same?

2. The combination of incentives he recommends (encouraging people to save but not retire early) will be tricky to achieve IMO. In any case, changing the framework for those who have already retired early risks upending many people's long term financial plans. It's easy to say that people can go back to work if they want more income, but, certainly in my case it would be impossible to go back to my previous career at any meaningful level. Many people will be over the SP age and have no desire (or in some cases physical / mental ability) to work again.

Much as I understand the principle of wanting to treat all groups equitably, in practice I think it could create significant unfairness unless there are very long lead times or special arrangements for those who have retired based on the existing framework.


This is a good point about returning to work, or rather inability to do so. Government talks a good talk about wanting long term unemployed back into work, but ultimately it will be the employers decision (whether it be private or public sector) and there usually is discrimination against those who have been out of the work force for a while.

Meanwhile it does not appear the government is addressing this very issue, which is a shame but also not surprising, because after all all they care about is appearing to be in control and doing something about it, not the actual results.
2 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Sara G on 13/09/2024(UTC), Guest on 13/09/2024(UTC)
Old Jock
Posted: 13 September 2024 11:07:08(UTC)
#55

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I couldn't help picking out this sentence from the FT article:
The true inequity, however, is different. What the statistic omits is the more relevant fact that higher and top-rate taxpayers also paid 69 per cent of income tax in 2022-23.

And this from a May 2023 IFS story:
By 2027–28 the number of people paying income tax at 40% or above will reach 7.8 million – that’s one in five taxpayers and one in seven adults.

In other words, 14% of the adult population (the "top earners") pay 69% of all income tax.

As a few others have implied above, this seems like a very dodgy pyramid structure. When some of the 14% get asked to pay even more because they have the "broadest shoulders" the system could easily collapse, e.g. what happens when we get to, say, 10% of the population paying 90% of the tax?

I do not know where we are on the Laffer curve, but I would guess we're past the point where it starts sloping downwards.
10 users thanked Old Jock for this post.
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Newbie
Posted: 13 September 2024 11:22:42(UTC)
#56

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Old Jock;318943 wrote:
I couldn't help picking out this sentence from the FT article:
The true inequity, however, is different. What the statistic omits is the more relevant fact that higher and top-rate taxpayers also paid 69 per cent of income tax in 2022-23.

And this from a May 2023 IFS story:
By 2027–28 the number of people paying income tax at 40% or above will reach 7.8 million – that’s one in five taxpayers and one in seven adults.

In other words, 14% of the adult population (the "top earners") pay 69% of all income tax.

As a few others have implied above, this seems like a very dodgy pyramid structure. When some of the 14% get asked to pay even more because they have the "broadest shoulders" the system could easily collapse, e.g. what happens when we get to, say, 10% of the population paying 90% of the tax?

I do not know where we are on the Laffer curve, but I would guess we're past the point where it starts sloping downwards.

Robert D
ooooooh
Robert D

Can we have a comment ?
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Jay P on 13/09/2024(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 13 September 2024 11:42:08(UTC)
#60

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
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Old Jock, I've been wondering the same thing. I am one of those who may become a higher rate tax payer for the first time in my life at some point, depending on what happens with pension increases. It seems ridiculous to me that someone who was always a basic rate payer while working could end up in the next tax band with a lower income. NB it isn't just the effect on income, but all the other allowances and taxes.

At what point do people start to look at other countries where the tax system may be more favourable, while the cost of living / housing is lower, and the healthcare system is better? But perhaps the government calculates that it is worth losing a few higher rate tax payers in order to advance their agenda.
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 13 September 2024 12:04:02(UTC)
#61

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087

I am a basic rate "taxpayer" with a 7-figure portfolio and a BTL and as an early retiree, my tax contribution with the exception of VAT and CT, will be negligible. Likely to be even following the budget and for the foreseeable future. Hoping it remains like that for decades.
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Newbie on 13/09/2024(UTC), MBA MBA on 13/09/2024(UTC)
Robert D
Posted: 13 September 2024 12:19:20(UTC)
#57

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Newbie;318944 wrote:


Can we have a comment ?



Yes, I will reply because unlike others you seem a more considered poster. "Comrade" - really? It's so childish. It's hard not to agree with Chris Giles that UK pensions enjoy over-generous tax breaks and that the system is in urgent need of reform. Like on here there are the usual self-interested comments section below the FT article, but more interesting are the comments from people in other countries who are bewildered frankly that such a system exists. .

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Tim D on 21/09/2024(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 13 September 2024 12:29:25(UTC)
#62

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Rookie Investor;318957 wrote:
I am a basic rate "taxpayer" with a 7-figure portfolio and a BTL and as an early retiree, my tax contribution with the exception of VAT and CT, will be negligible. Likely to be even following the budget and for the foreseeable future. Hoping it remains like that for decades.


I don't understand how that is possible with a pf that large. Mine is much smaller and I am never likely to be in that position. But in any case, I am happy to pay tax as my contribution to public services (much as they may warrant reform). I just don't want to find my standard of living has fallen because the goalposts have been moved (it's bad enough already with fiscal drag and inflation).
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Guest on 13/09/2024(UTC), MBA MBA on 13/09/2024(UTC)
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