Adelaide One;325885 wrote:
I am seeing a lot of anger here RobinB! And a wide ranging series of points which might be unfairly directed at the Governor of the BoE (who I understood was a brexit suipporter) and the EU. So for balance ....
1. Mr Bailey is using government figures which says the GDP is 4% lower due to Brexit. They use a counterfactual model to model the difference, and that takes into account covid response. It's consistent with other figures and empirical reporting.
That 4% is equivalent to a tax income of about £80bn, plenty to fill the 22bn black hole / build hospitals / HS2 / not need to raise NI. We could even afford a Liz Truss budget with that sort of income.
2. Mountains of legistation. They've had 4 years since Brexit to get rid of any they don't like, and seemed unable to do so.
3. Having the highest tax burden. How is that affected by the EU? We have been out for 4 years
4. Energy. Our energy price is determined by the price of gas.
5. I would agree, other economies do seem to be doing worst. Think how much better we would be if we were in the EU.
5. Balance of trade. 80-85% of our economy is services and not trade
6. No one but you is talking about re-joining. Something like "closer ties" were the words used. And if ther eis a business case for it, why not?
7. What evidence do you have about re-joining would kill our tech sector?
8. I understood Mr Bailey was selected out of a smaller pool of candidates because the BOE governor needed to be a brexiteer. So you might have yourself to blame there if you feel he isn't the best candidate, keen to please his bosses [I thought he was the boss], or the other insults you have for him, RobinB (sorry if that makes you angry as well)
I'm not angry at all, I'm laughing at your post and what an ill educated NPC you are. Most of what you've written is too daft to respond to.
You cannot accurately model what the GDP difference is between where we are now and where we would be had we stayed in the EU. Far too many variables. It is a guess and a politically motivated one. Only poorly educated people and those lacking common sense believe this rubbish. Look at the accuracy of political polling - this modelling you refer to is way less trustworthy than that.
Most of your other points are irrelevant. I was drawing attention to all the other variables that might have a bearing on GDP and might have been different in myriad ways had history been different. Here are some simple facts that our political class shy away from: our balance of trade with the EU has improved since we left, our manufacturing base has expanded and overtaken France's, and our economic growth has exceeded numerous EU economies. Do I need to say any more?
"Our energy price is determined by the price of gas" ... "80-85% of our economy is services not trade"... thank you for those illuminating points; you've even managed to get those wrong.
Next you'll be telling me Rachel Reeves was a chess champion and economist. Can Mr Bailey please confirm whether or not Rachel was an economist at the BOE before transferring to the complaints department at HBOS? I'm sure he could... but probably prefers not to upset his bosses.