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AI is a load of crap - prove me wrong
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 04 December 2024 10:56:34(UTC)
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The more I see relating to 'AI' the more a load of utter crap it seems to be.

What has flipped me into starting a discussion is to look at Google with a search of "index linked UK annuity rates". Now it's pretty obvioous the sort of result I was expecting.

What do I get in my Google results...?

Quote:


AI Overview
Learn more
Here are some index-linked annuity rates:
UK IL Gilt 0.75% 2034
UK IL Gilt 0.625% 2040
UK IL Gilt 0.125% 2044
UK IL Gilt 0.125% 2039
UK IL Gilt 0.125% 2051



Really? Is that what anyone would expect? It's useless AND incorrect.

We now have AI Electric Toothbrushes, AI Washing Machines. I start to wonder if the jAguAR advert was AI generated...

It seems to be mainly used for generating fake photos and mindless memes. Not that those things actually ARE 'AI' as opposed to just programs and algorithms with no learning capability at all. Claiming somthing is 'AI' doesn't make it 'AI'....

So really, has anything new actually been invented relating to AI? What is the invention underpinning the hype. What are the patents? Who owns them.

It's appearing to me to be nothing more than hot air and dumbing down... In some cases it's losing customers, as anyone who has chatted to the FedEx 'AI assistant' will appreciate. Companies are replacing people with cheaper, but incapable chat bots that are utterly unable to resolve problems.

So being serious now, what are the things where AI is actually making a difference?
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Robin B on 04/12/2024(UTC), Brockend on 04/12/2024(UTC), Guest on 04/12/2024(UTC), Hilda Ogden on 04/12/2024(UTC), SF100 on 02/02/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:06:10(UTC)
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It is making a difference to the ad monetization for some of the big tech companies (google, meta, amzn). Meta has a lot of potential to grow earnings due to AI. there are other useful things it has been shown to have done such as in the legal sector. But I doubt AI is going to have a huge impact short term, more a long term steady progress.

Andrew - I seriously think you and others should do a bit more deep dive into these things before making blanket statements like you are. You have provided some anecdotal evidence of a chat bot AI not producing the correct output. But there is a lot of added value it has achieved and will continue to do beneath the surface.

I understand some equities have run up a lot based on hype, but there clearly is some huge capex going on and I doubt it will all be for nothing.

The problem is that people on here and others have a very minimal understanding of AI and what it can do. That might lead them to underweight US because they seem to think it is a bubble.
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Sara G on 04/12/2024(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:17:55(UTC)
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Rookie Investor;327698 wrote:


The problem is that people on here and others have a very minimal understanding of AI and what it can do. That might lead them to underweight US because they seem to think it is a bubble.


As a software engineer I have a fairly good grasp of such things. And importantly the ability to differentiate between actual 'AI' and things that are not, but are still labelled as 'AI'..like my toothbrush example.

Every closed loop algorithm (such as monitoring and targetting adverts on social media) isn't 'AI'. It is frequently 'just an algorithm' with some results storage. That isn't 'AI'...

A lot of investment doesn't prove worth. As we have seen with Cold Fusion, the Hydrogen Economy, the 'Metaverse', Battery Gigafactories etc. etc. Tech is litered with such examples of money pits and Crash & Burn stories.

So that's why I'm posing the question, albeit rather flippantly. I'm trying to understand what, if anything, the REAL examples are and will they have the productivity claims that they are priced in to have.

And at the moment, I'm not really seeing much.
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:25:17(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;327701 wrote:
Rookie Investor;327698 wrote:


The problem is that people on here and others have a very minimal understanding of AI and what it can do. That might lead them to underweight US because they seem to think it is a bubble.


As a software engineer I have a fairly good grasp of such things. And importantly the ability to differentiate between actual 'AI' and things that are not, but are still labelled as 'AI'..like my toothbrush example.

Every closed loop algorithm (such as monitoring and targetting adverts on social media) isn't 'AI'. It is frequently 'just an algorithm' with some results storage. That isn't 'AI'...

A lot of investment doesn't prove worth. As we have seen with Cold Fusion, the Hydrogen Economy, the 'Metaverse', Battery Gigafactories etc. etc. Tech is litered with such examples of money pits and Crash & Burn stories.

So that's why I'm posing the question, albeit rather flippantly. I'm trying to understand what, if anything, the REAL examples are and will they have the productivity claims that they are priced in to have.

And at the moment, I'm not really seeing much.


Many software engineers do not even understand AI. I am not saying AI is actually AI. We are using the term AI to mean what has been developed thus far, i.e. LLM.

You are not seeing much because the added value is for some business areas like legal, plus within the tech sector itself due to ad monetization.

In fact we are all indirectly being impacted by it because there has been earnings growth due to ad monetization and increased use of hyper scalers because of it. Resulting in our portfolio values going up - at least those who have exposure to US equities...
Robin B
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:33:36(UTC)
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Part of the problem is the use of the word "intelligent".

There have been household appliances marketed as "intelligent" for years. Like the wall heater that turns itself on at certain pre programmed times of day or when the room temperature drops below a certain level, or off above a certain temperature - all based on what the human has programmed it to do. To be fair, that is really clever - compared to an appliance that only has an on/off button that you have to remember to hit with your finger as and when...

Same with calculators, which have been around for decades and we take for granted, being able to do insane sums that only Rainman could do in his own head, with no need for batteries and costing about 4 quid. That is amazing.

What is being called AI just seems like the same principle. Pre programmed responses to human requests, albeit - where chatgpt and illustrators are concerned - with scope to appear creative by being able to mine the internet for words and images.

But the more complex the "thinking" required, the more the shortcomings emerge. Google maps really is pretty shit at times for long distance journeys where you want to avoid massive traffic jams. Despite having a massive network of information at its disposal it will often take too long to adjust and advise you to change course. I've got to the point where I have a sixth sense for when I need to ignore it and am often right. Self driving cars will take you off a cliff if there's a confusing object in its view, like an advertising hoarding showing a road ahead.

None of this is thinking in the true sense. It isn't the same as general intelligence. It is useful, interesting and a good thing in principle, but has its limitations, isn't anywhere near as clever as people are making out and doesn't in any way resemble what the human mind can do. Despite what geeky, lazy dreamers like ben ski claim, AI isn't going to save us from needing to think and solve our own problems. Unless there are some seriously big leaps forward that are not currently apparent.

So I think AI is good, but also crap compared to the hype being spread. It is also turning people into cretins and IQs are falling more and more. These useful tools are making people very lazy and their brains are doing less and less. How many people can actually read a paper map now the way we used to do whilst also driving? Cars will now bleep a warning if you drift over the line on the road - anybody who needs that shouldn't be driving in the first place. The ability to remember things diminishes as we always have these phones there as a constant reference. Attention spans are limited. Why write or draw when you can get your phone to do it for you? Add in the problems of politicisation, bias, propaganda. AI seems to make US crap - it brings us down to its level. This is more a philosophical point about how it affects people. Turning them more and more into useless morons.

I'm not expecting any miracles with this; there seems to be a lot of hot air involved sucking in large numbers of dollars, and the concerns around AI are not so much that it will take over the world through its cunning and evil genius, but that we will destroy ourselves by becoming more and more stupid and dependent on what is artifical rather than real. Perhaps the winners will be the people who remain more in touch with the real, or at least analogue, world. This is already well in progress...
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ANDREW FOSTER on 04/12/2024(UTC), Guest on 04/12/2024(UTC)
Strangways
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:39:53(UTC)
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It's being used a lot for mundane tasks - drafting emails and reports. The job of advertising copywriter isn't going to be around for much longer.
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Rookie Investor on 04/12/2024(UTC), Jay P on 04/12/2024(UTC), Brockend on 04/12/2024(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 04 December 2024 11:45:49(UTC)
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Strangways;327705 wrote:
It's being used a lot for mundane tasks - drafting emails and reports. The job of advertising copywriter isn't going to be around for much longer.


Also many other mundane or repetitive tasks. Low level jobs in accountancy, law, bank clerks, back offices etc. All can be replaced by AI eventually. You will have some workers overseeing it. But many will be replaced.

Think of all the money that is being saved. So not only will you see big tech companies profit from it all, you will see many corporations increase profit margins.

It will accrue to shareholders. Young people should be heavily invested as they will more likely to suffer from their jobs, so need to hedge.
Robin B
Posted: 04 December 2024 12:27:14(UTC)
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And yet we become less and less effective.

The more technologically advanced, the more there are backlogs for all things and an inability to get anything done. It can become lethal when it means medical appointments involving lengthy delays and stabbing nutters are let loose on our streets - when they should either be in prison or not on British soil at all.

It goes beyond mere cost efficiency in business.

We are unable to defeat mountain dwelling savages in Afghanistan and our aircraft carriers, which cost billions, would be sunk very quickly when faced with Yemenese goat botherers in motorboats.

We are quite literally being invaded on a significant scale, but people sit about painting their nails, pretending to be women and cats, ordering shit off amazon. The "clever" people and the "elites" are useless word-salad merchants. The police seem to think crime is something that happens on Twitter. There's a bigger picture. I think the likes of AI are making us less fit for purpose, not more.

I think it is partly summed up by the following. One is a world war 2 British field marshal who oversaw stunning military victories in Burma against the Japanese, with rag tag forces initially ill equipped for jungle warfare. The conditions were brutal. One of the battles has been described as the Stalingrad of the East. At times, the opposing forces were separated by the distance of a tennis court, and then there was hand to hand combat. It isn't so well known, but one of the greatest military victories of the Second World War. The man who oversaw it is the one on the left. The chap on the right is our present day military operative. Spot the difference...




It seems that "artifical intelligence" is describing what has happened to the human mind in western society.
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Guest on 04/12/2024(UTC)
Brockend
Posted: 04 December 2024 13:01:18(UTC)
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Joined: 18/02/2016(UTC)
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Strangways;327705 wrote:
It's being used a lot for mundane tasks - drafting emails and reports. The job of advertising copywriter isn't going to be around for much longer.


Chatting to a friend who’s a GP last week, he’s pleased he’s due to retire soon, feels his job and the majority of GPs will be undertaken by AI in the not too distant future
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 04 December 2024 13:05:19(UTC)
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Rookie Investor;327706 wrote:
Strangways;327705 wrote:
It's being used a lot for mundane tasks - drafting emails and reports. The job of advertising copywriter isn't going to be around for much longer.


Also many other mundane or repetitive tasks. Low level jobs in accountancy, law, bank clerks, back offices etc. All can be replaced by AI eventually. You will have some workers overseeing it. But many will be replaced.

.


And this illustrates my point.

Those low level routine jobs aren't being replaced by 'AI', they are being replaced by automation. Implementation of human written flow charts via a program.

It's not 'AI' it's just a program. I'm not seeing any 'AI' bit here....

As for advertising copy, well I from what I've read the Dilbert Jargonator did a better job in many cases.

But these are small scale changes. Money will only be saved in large scale if things like Call Centres are replaced. And (as with outsourcing to India) the 'AI' interactions are pretty dismal and again simply following human written scripts. Again, that isn't 'AI'.
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Thrugelmir on 04/12/2024(UTC)
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