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Rob B
Posted: 02 January 2025 21:31:54(UTC)
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Reading through a few of the ‘Xmas break’ threads, one theme that appeared more times than I expected was a desire for portfolio simplification. Numerous posters saying they hold too many OEICs / ETFs / ITs.

I guess the $64m question is……what’s brought this on?

Too many holdings to manage?
Not beating the average market return (appropriate benchmark)?
Ideas that just haven’t worked out?
Recency bias (another year of stellar market returns)?
Poor performance over 1yr / 3yrs / 5yrs?
Impatience?
Fees?
Low interest rate era end - a return to ‘normality’?
Kid in a sweetshop at time of purchase(s)?

Could it really as simple as choosing a multi-asset fund(s) (i.e., AJB / HSBC / LifePlan / LifeStrategy / L&G / MyMap) aligned to your risk and volatility requirements and be done with it?

Clearly this would be as dull as dishwater for this forum.....
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Tom 123
Posted: 02 January 2025 22:02:22(UTC)
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Time to manage a portfolio properly.

The return of reasonable yield in bonds.

Fees.

I'm keeping my existing IT heavy portfolio. But all new contributions going into a simple 60/40 multi asset fund, with 10% to gold. As simple as I can make it.
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Jed Mires
Posted: 02 January 2025 22:13:13(UTC)
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A really simple 50% MSCI world and 50% MMF returned 13.26% year to date. If you are not gettings this return then you need to have a good think about your portfolio.
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Big boy
Posted: 02 January 2025 22:14:43(UTC)
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I have found it’s to complex’ to choose from 1000s of Funds/Trackers/Passives so keep it simple by making term investments in X hundred IT/ICs where it’s simple to decide if they are under or overvalued.
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Big boy
Posted: 02 January 2025 22:29:04(UTC)
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Jed Mires;329970 wrote:
A really simple 50% MSCI world and 50% MMF returned 13.26% year to date. If you are not gettings this return then you need to have a good think about your portfolio.


During the last say 20 years what has been the worst return please . 13.26% is impossible to guarantee and also very misleading to new investors who believe it’s that simple.
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ben ski
Posted: 02 January 2025 22:46:13(UTC)
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Rob B;329966 wrote:
Recency bias (another year of stellar market returns)?


Mostly this.

Retail investors don't evolve – they just adapt their behaviour and philosophy to back-fit recent history.

Historically, large-cap growth has been the worst part of the market to invest in. There was a theory that businesses, like dinosaurs, outgrow their environment. This may still be the case. So even 10 years ago, you had a dozen better places to invest than the S&P: UK micro-caps, quality, perpetual bonds, Asia, etc.

Taking the market return felt like giving up to most on here. "I've done better with this collection of 10 randomly chosen unit trusts – why would I buy the index?"

Indexes traditionally win by always doing about average. Investors are hyper-focused on the past 1-3 years, so they think average is absolutely terrible. Where they fail is always being in the right funds. They can always pick the funds they should've been in over the past few years. And right now, that just happens to be a US or world index – which makes investing appear very simple.
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Jed Mires
Posted: 03 January 2025 00:05:47(UTC)
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Big boy;329972 wrote:
Jed Mires;329970 wrote:
A really simple 50% MSCI world and 50% MMF returned 13.26% year to date. If you are not gettings this return then you need to have a good think about your portfolio.


During the last say 20 years what has been the worst return please . 13.26% is impossible to guarantee and also very misleading to new investors who believe it’s that simple.



Nothing misleading here facts are facts. You can check it out yourself the date is easily available.
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Rob B on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Harry Gloom
Posted: 03 January 2025 05:54:04(UTC)
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ben ski;329973 wrote:
Rob B;329966 wrote:
Recency bias (another year of stellar market returns)?


Mostly this.

Retail investors don't evolve – they just adapt their behaviour and philosophy to back-fit recent history.

Historically, large-cap growth has been the worst part of the market to invest in. There was a theory that businesses, like dinosaurs, outgrow their environment. This may still be the case. So even 10 years ago, you had a dozen better places to invest than the S&P: UK micro-caps, quality, perpetual bonds, Asia, etc.

Taking the market return felt like giving up to most on here. "I've done better with this collection of 10 randomly chosen unit trusts – why would I buy the index?"

Indexes traditionally win by always doing about average. Investors are hyper-focused on the past 1-3 years, so they think average is absolutely terrible. Where they fail is always being in the right funds. They can always pick the funds they should've been in over the past few years. And right now, that just happens to be a US or world index – which makes investing appear very simple.



I love the snobby whiff of condescension you get in this forum as the term “retail investors” is bandied about suggesting they are a mass horde of ill informed sheep and the ambiguous inference that buy and hold passive index fund investing is somehow inferior to the stock and fund picking prowess and deep macro economic and market understanding so often displayed on here.
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Keith Cobby
Posted: 03 January 2025 08:50:41(UTC)
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Retail is a term used by fund management companies (and journalists) to differentiate individuals from wholesale/institutional customers. The correct term is private investors, those who make their own decisions and are unaffiliated to corporations.
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Wave Action
Posted: 03 January 2025 09:56:33(UTC)
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I'm sure everyone understands it's not simple and it's not as easy as reading a few books either . We could go with an IFA or DIY and still not get that satisfactory result.

Anyway as requested the 20 year performance of Global tracker and Cash. At the end of the day it's all about your starting point when searching for performance figures. Cash returns have been poor during this period but not at the moment with 5% . It's the future that counts.



https://www2.trustnet.co...RLCASH,O_FGWUO,NM990100

Now we include the gilts/bonds ( C and D ) over the same period. From 2005 to 2009 cash ( B ) isn't doing that badly versus gilts. Then comes the zero base rate period. Gilts take off then eventually crash . It's all about timing isn't it ? From 2023-2025 cash is running reasonably well. Cash is well ahead 1 YR , 3 YR , 5 YR and 10 YR from the Trustnet link below..



https://www2.trustnet.co...0,F0ZDP,NBG05,O_FRLCASH

This one reflects fund manager performance Aggressive , Balanced and Cautious. Note all are in single figures for the last year . So where do we all go ? Never simple is it.

https://www2.trustnet.co...NB:AFIA,NB:AFIB,NB:AFIC

Here's a back test pity it's US based but worth a look. Starts in1986 to end 2024 . Will include 1987 crash , 2000 dotcom , 2008 GFC and 2020 pandemic so plenty of volatility. I've set it at 50% CASH ,25% US market and 25% International market. 9 negative years in nearly 40 years. Worst was 2008 and the rest less than 10%. Not bad I reckon.

https://www.portfoliovis...l=466Pw9TafZNJi8m5YmIeAN
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