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Anthony French
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:09:18(UTC)
#17

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
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The average bear market is down around 31%. So if 600% is pounds it would take the figure down to £414.00. Joining this bull market now could be very painful, one certainty is that the next leg will be a bear market, not if but when it starts is the unknown. The expectation is the current bull market still has a few months left to run but watch out for any black swans.


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Snoopy22
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:19:58(UTC)
#21

Joined: 11/12/2018(UTC)
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Anthony French;329987 wrote:
The average bear market is down around 31%. So if 600% is pounds it would take the figure down to £414.00. Joining this bull market now could be very painful, one certainty is that the next leg will be a bear market, not if but when it starts is the unknown. The expectation is the current bull market still has a few months left to run but watch out for any black swans.



Will there be people who went to cash years ago waiting for the bear market and are waiting for a good time to rejoin
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1 user thanked Snoopy22 for this post.
guantou on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Bob Brook
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:24:21(UTC)
#18

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Anthony French;329987 wrote:
The average bear market is down around 31%. So if 600% is pounds it would take the figure down to £414.00. Joining this bull market now could be very painful, one certainty is that the next leg will be a bear market, not if but when it starts is the unknown. The expectation is the current bull market still has a few months left to run but watch out for any black swans.





There is no certainty, if you think there is you are doing it wrong..
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1 user thanked Bob Brook for this post.
guantou on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:27:01(UTC)
#19

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,129
Bob Brook;329989 wrote:
Anthony French;329987 wrote:
The average bear market is down around 31%. So if 600% is pounds it would take the figure down to £414.00. Joining this bull market now could be very painful, one certainty is that the next leg will be a bear market, not if but when it starts is the unknown. The expectation is the current bull market still has a few months left to run but watch out for any black swans.





There is no certainty, if you think there is you are doing it wrong..



When the bear arrives this year, it will prove you wrong again, until then, everyone must invest to the best of their ability.
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Anthony French
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:34:13(UTC)
#22

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,129
Disconnection (Dis-anchoring)

Finance theory stipulates that investors anchor their beliefs of satisfactory returns on an estimated weighted average of the past returns of assets (Barberis, 2018). Research aimed at measuring the beliefs of real-world investors leans towards confirming this mechanism (Amromin and Sharpe, 2014), which explains in part why volatility occurs: investors do not focus on the present reality, but rely on the past.
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Big boy
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:44:57(UTC)
#6

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,678
Jed Mires;329976 wrote:
Big boy;329972 wrote:
Jed Mires;329970 wrote:
A really simple 50% MSCI world and 50% MMF returned 13.26% year to date. If you are not gettings this return then you need to have a good think about your portfolio.


During the last say 20 years what has been the worst return please . 13.26% is impossible to guarantee and also very misleading to new investors who believe it’s that simple.



Nothing misleading here facts are facts. You can check it out yourself the date is easily available.



'if you are not getting this return etc". I suggest some would be mislead by this statement.
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Jed Mires
Posted: 03 January 2025 10:48:47(UTC)
#23

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On the topic of simple portfolios Kensington and Chelsea £1.9billion LA pension fund has only 2 funds for 75% of it's portfolio ,the biggest is MSCI world index at 50%. Run by Quentin Marshall a guy who really knows his onions. Worth a read to take onboard what he has to say.

https://www.ft.com/conte...f-4287-b327-39e62ab92ecb
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5 users thanked Jed Mires for this post.
Sara G on 03/01/2025(UTC), Jane Daisy on 03/01/2025(UTC), Cm258 on 03/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 03/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Robert D
Posted: 03 January 2025 11:14:26(UTC)
#25

Joined: 06/11/2016(UTC)
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Jed Mires;329994 wrote:
On the topic of simple portfolios Kensington and Chelsea £1.9billion LA pension fund has only 2 funds for 75% of it's portfolio ,the biggest is MSCI world index at 50%. Run by Quentin Marshall a guy who really knows his onions. Worth a read to take onboard what he has to say.

https://www.ft.com/conte...f-4287-b327-39e62ab92ecb


I wonder how much he is paid by K & C by shoving most of the fund in a tracker ....... ie, doing very little?

Incidentally, Marshall was chair of the K &C housing and property scrutiny committee before the Grenfell disaster. He was said to have personally dismissed residents’ complaints about refurbishment works as “grossly exaggerated”
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Sheerman on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 03 January 2025 11:30:11(UTC)
#24

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
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Jed Mires;329994 wrote:
On the topic of simple portfolios Kensington and Chelsea £1.9billion LA pension fund has only 2 funds for 75% of it's portfolio ,the biggest is MSCI world index at 50%. Run by Quentin Marshall a guy who really knows his onions. Worth a read to take onboard what he has to say.

https://www.ft.com/conte...f-4287-b327-39e62ab92ecb


That appears to be quite risk-on compared to a typical pension fund (especially with the addition of the BG fund), but perhaps not that dissimilar to an endowment fund. I wonder how they manage volatility in terms of matching liabilities? Would they divert incoming contributions to pay out pensions rather than sell down the equities (if that is allowed), or perhaps the yield is enough? Ideally they would be buying more equities if they were to become relatively cheap, however. Interesting that he doesn't see the value in infrastructure, but likes property.

Generally though, I think a pf can be simple or complicated and there is no direct correlation to outcomes, even when there are periods where this appears to be the case. If there is any advantage, then it's the cost savings, and the ability to spend time on other things.
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7 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Cm258 on 03/01/2025(UTC), Jed Mires on 03/01/2025(UTC), Big boy on 03/01/2025(UTC), Jesse M on 03/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 03/01/2025(UTC), Chris1947 on 03/01/2025(UTC), Dexi on 03/01/2025(UTC)
Bob Brook
Posted: 03 January 2025 12:13:26(UTC)
#20

Joined: 12/04/2023(UTC)
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Anthony French;329990 wrote:
Bob Brook;329989 wrote:
Anthony French;329987 wrote:
The average bear market is down around 31%. So if 600% is pounds it would take the figure down to £414.00. Joining this bull market now could be very painful, one certainty is that the next leg will be a bear market, not if but when it starts is the unknown. The expectation is the current bull market still has a few months left to run but watch out for any black swans.





There is no certainty, if you think there is you are doing it wrong..



When the bear arrives this year, it will prove you wrong again, until then, everyone must invest to the best of their ability.


It wont prove me wrong because I didn't say it couldn't happen.... I said its not a certainty but you often miss the point..
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2 users thanked Bob Brook for this post.
Snoopy22 on 03/01/2025(UTC), Cm258 on 03/01/2025(UTC)
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