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Investing from the charts
Newbie
Posted: 18 December 2024 21:23:21(UTC)

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816

Johan De Silva;329035 wrote:
US yields just spiked so perhaps a small dip opportunity tomorrow...then a rally.

Hunting for cash without going into Cash allocation
Johan De Silva
Posted: 18 December 2024 21:46:48(UTC)

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

Newbie;329041 wrote:
Johan De Silva;329035 wrote:
US yields just spiked so perhaps a small dip opportunity tomorrow...then a rally.

Hunting for cash without going into Cash allocation

Hmmm I see you predicament. The gold holding I have is down, but in GBP only down 1.1%... it should be up but perhaps others are selling into cash ready to deploy already.

I could get lucky and see the ALPH holding shoot up tomorrow on longer term NTI, but that could be wishful thinking seeing as only the USD was the place to hide tonight.

Anything EM related is going to be ****** for a while I suspect due to the value of the USD.
Wave Action
Posted: 19 December 2024 18:56:46(UTC)

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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Johan De Silva;329035 wrote:
US yields just spiked so perhaps a small dip opportunity tomorrow...then a rally.


Pretty washed out looking at the following..

% stocks above the 5 day moving average hit zero yesterday..

https://eoddata.com/stockquote/INDEX/S5FD.htm

% stocks above the 20 day MA....low

https://eoddata.com/stockquote/INDEX/S5TW.htm

The last 3 years when the 20 day MA is this low the markets have rallied..

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...at=jpg&name=900x900

and % stocks above the 50 day MA...low and last October was a nice buy ?

https://stockcharts.com/...477/chartbook/257165874

Decent data..

https://x.com/MarketCharts
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Johan De Silva on 01/01/2025(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 20 December 2024 10:04:28(UTC)

Joined: 27/01/2013(UTC)
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If 'investing from the charts' you'd be looking for the S&P to subside to between 5800-5400. Today we're almost down to 5800 with this morning's futures showing a further 0.75 fall anticipated. Then we have a week or ten days during end of year festivities when trading is often thin and movements amplified. Then we have the uncertainties of US govt. shutdown / federal budget and debt wrangling and Trump taking office... Not much there to put the brakes on the current slide. 5400 looks likely. Nor, at present, is there much cheer in other parts of the global investing world.

The recent post election uptick was based on frothy sentiment now punctured by the Fed. Three or four weeks ago I was writing in here about my unease at 'record highs' and their being a signal to shift some profits / cut some losses and make for safer waters.
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Sheerman on 20/12/2024(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 31 December 2024 12:04:21(UTC)

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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SELL ISF.L at 7.94. No confidence in markets at the moment so out for the year with 10.1% . Time in the market 83 days including weekends. Not great but reasonable considering it's a FTSE tracker trade and the index has been flat since May. Index itself is only up around 5% without the juicy dividends. Doubt anybody will have been persuaded to trade this way but that's what I'll continue to do. Finished with buy and hold and all it's sleepless nights. Let's see what 2025 brings. ? Good luck all.

DATE ..................................................... TOTAL
17 JAN........ BUY ISF......724.45 ..........100
29 JAN........SELL ISF.. .. 744.68...........102.8
16 APR........BUY VUSA...77.15 ...........102.8
07 MAY.......SELL VUSA...78.30............104.1
30 MAY........BUY ISF.......805.50...........104.1
10 JUN...... SELL ISF.......809.65...........104.8
13 JUN...... BUY ISF........792.16...........104.8
21 JUN...... SELL ISF.......801.15...........105.8
05 AUG..... BUY ISF .......779.30 ..........105.8
13 AUG......SELL ISF.......801.74...........108.9
13 NOV.......BUY ISF.......780.58...........108.9
20 NOV......SELL ISF.......791.54...........110.3
18 DEC......BUY ISF....... 795.10...........110.3
31DEC.......SELL ISF.......794.00...........110.1

A summary of the years trades . Just 7 trades , buying and selling , have produced 10% so no complaints . There's been other entry points where I've dithered. 6 entry points have been near enough using the lower momentum indicators. The last buy on DEC 18 went down 2% before recovering 31 DEC. That was all down to the flash crash in the US with the FED day and options expiry. Downside acceptable ? Indicators at oversold more than handy.
Exit strategy has been poor as too keen to make a profit. System is to go with 10 day moving average once the short term trend is moving higher. For example buy trade placed on 13 NOV at 7.80p but sold way to soon on 20 NOV at 7.91p. Following the 10 day MA as the stop loss would have produced 8.10p exit. Relax and use the system that's the answer. Listening to macro data can make a fool of us all in general .
In my opening post I suggested judging it all at the end of the year. It's not luck is it ? Well I don't think so but 99% of investors will continue doubt the merits of technical analysis.



https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISF.L

WINNERS 2024..

No doubt the US markets have been the leader despite the overvalued theme rumbling on. No point trying to time markets on valuations then ?
SP 500 and NASDAQ ( A and B) well ahead. MSCI World Index ( C ) up around 20% . Well it would be considering it's 60% US market. Buy and hold wins here . FTSE and EUROPE not so good under 10% . Hard to go past a global tracker and go down the pub.?



https://www2.trustnet.co...SP500,NJM4B,NAWEURS,NUKX
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Dexi on 31/12/2024(UTC), Johan De Silva on 01/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 01/01/2025(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 01 January 2025 14:10:09(UTC)

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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Good luck for 2025 everybody.

Recap on the methods and why ? I'm trading dips using technical analysis ( TA ) as they happen on a regular basis. Could easily be a dozen in a year. The majority are less than 5% with 5% itself happening around 3 times a year. Falls of 10% and more don't happen that often as shown below.



https://www.capitalgroup...ns-frequent-916x400.png



https://pbs.twimg.com/me...at=jpg&name=900x900

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...rmat=png&name=small

https://money.com/stock-market-correction-chart/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7QjWt7WwAA6HYW.jpg


There's many momentum indicators to use with technical analysis but I've narrowed it down to a few and a 10 day moving average as a guide. Simple really where the BUY is at the lower end of the indicators and SELL at the top. Note the indicators can stay overbought or oversold for a while and kind of running with the price. Nothing is perfect or guaranteed. The 10 day moving average is the stop loss as price trends higher . Could be used for BUY but there's a tendency to miss those quick moves off the bottom. So BUY at oversold and SELL when it reaches overbought. The 10 day MA is lagging price so is used as a SELL of last resort. For example early NOV price was oversold at 785 ish and reached overbought late NOV. Price remained overbought for another 2 weeks before triggering SELL early DEC around 810 hitting that 10 day MA..



https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISF.L

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

See what next week brings as I'm all cash at the moment. US markets have struggled last few weeks so I'm not confident . Wonder if it's all about that yield curve and potential recession. ? Higher bond yields don't help either. US leads the market direction as ever and 2024 was its best run since 1995.

No expert but I've watched this about liquidity..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNjEJoobXPo

From October 2024 a long term view highlighting capital rotation . I like his ideas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMZbrhPUX38
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Johan De Silva on 01/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 05/01/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 01 January 2025 14:45:23(UTC)

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

The yields are most likely linked to Trumps tarriffs and the technicals will change if all this talk of tarriffs are just a negotiation threat and you will find Europe (see your chart on regional performance) actually be the strongest riser. Either way the market may move to the upside if this uncertainty is removed within the year.

Remember if Jan ends higher than it opens then it's a good indicator for the year and so last month's
pullback is healthy. But I do think a two year view is optimal especially for smaller companies and bonds.
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Wave Action on 01/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 01/01/2025(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 05 January 2025 13:01:21(UTC)

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 388

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DEC 31 Rounded off trades with a sell at 794p basically end of year stuff and little confidence in the Santa rally. Again in the last few days price has moved to 802p and indicators are only now nearing overbought . Another example of sticking to the system and not the news . Lessons to be learnt !!



Zooming out with a 5 year monthly view of global tracker VWRL . Two settings to keep it simple . 5 period moving average MA as the stop loss and one lower momentum indicator Williams . There'll be other indicators but I'm using this until I can fine tune it better.
As it stands price 11000 is above the orange 5 MA at 10850 ish. Williams is well above the 50 line in blue. Long and strong with both triggers positive. It's been that way since October 2023 that's the BUY. When both turn negative simply SELL . Downside protected without having to do much maintenance . Might get choppy for months but in those situations neither gaining or loosing . Can even trade it ? Not getting out at the top and not getting in at the bottom but not suffering in a crash . CASH on the side lines from those monthly contributions and there we have our two fund portfolio.



Bookmark it and we'll see how it goes ?

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Same settings from 1 year view..

https://bigcharts.market...oggle=false&state=11
1 user thanked Wave Action for this post.
Sheerman on 05/01/2025(UTC)
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