SF100;330175 wrote:For £200k, 5.1% after tax.
Obvs worse for higher rater (ref. fiscal drag...)
The current compound rate of the 10yr low coupon Gilt is 4.6%, effectively tax free.
Is it worth bothering with unwrapped risk assets,
esp if it'll be tax efficient to liquidate & spend those before ISA & SIPP?
This is a really important calculation to do. And if the estimates turn out to be along the right lines, there'd be a good argument.
This is sort of the equation CGT, PNL and Ruffer are doing – estimating there's more (at least risk-adjusted) value in treasuries.
I would say, if you're largely tax-sheltered, and able to get closer to 6%, then assuming inflation's 3-4%, you're comparing a real return as low as 0.6% to a real return of 2-3%. Roughly three times the return. I would say that's worth it – but you could certainly justify going to something like 40:60. In fact, even in the worst case for stocks, I'd still not go below 25% stocks – I don't think it's wise to sit out the market.
I'd also note that return estimate was about the same in 2014, from memory. Not to say it's a bad estimate – but there's still a very wide margin of error, and returns can come in funny sequences (you could quadruple your money before things fell off, and that's why you always want to be in the market).
The other risk of going all-in on gilts would obviously be inflation. That could decimate a portfolio really designed for deflation. I think the takeaway is you can justify being more balanced and diversified than 60:40, but if you've been 60:40 for a while, there's probably still more risk in doing something than doing nothing.