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Vanguard LifeStrategy 40% Equity
Evies Dad
Posted: 25 January 2025 12:34:56(UTC)
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Harry Trout;332148 wrote:


Certainly I seem to be showing that the volatility of long term returns is the same for VLS 80% and VLS 40% based on their performance thus far. Noting of course that VLS funds have enjoyed bull run conditions since launch.

Understanding all of this should stiffen my resolve. I guess I'm really just sharing my plans for the forum sounding board as it all feels a bit counter intuitive !!


We need to remember that 2022 was the worst bond crash for a century, so one would hope the volatility of VLS40 would be better going forward.
4 users thanked Evies Dad for this post.
Harry Trout on 25/01/2025(UTC), lenahan on 25/01/2025(UTC), David1965 on 25/01/2025(UTC), AlanT on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 25 January 2025 21:33:38(UTC)
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Evies Dad;332210 wrote:

We need to remember that 2022 was the worst bond crash for a century, so one would hope the volatility of VLS40 would be better going forward.

There does appear to be some recent improvement (reduction) in the volatility of VLS 40%

I've looked at the standard deviation of 5 year annualised performance on a rolling 36 month basis to get a sense of the trend.

This number peaked at 2.1% in October 2023 and is now back down to 2017-2021 levels of 0.7% - 0.9%.

But the patterns are exactly the same for VLS 80%, peaking at 2.2% in October 2023 and back now to 1% - actually this is the lowest it's ever been.

Totally accept the feedback that all my numbers are backward looking of course and, as xxd09 says, it's for each of us to gauge our behavioural tolerances

However, the data is suggesting to me that "your age in bonds" could be very expensive insurance

So my plan is to carefully lift my equity% with age ...........
4 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Jay P on 25/01/2025(UTC), AlanT on 26/01/2025(UTC), Cm258 on 26/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Andrew1952
Posted: 25 January 2025 22:16:18(UTC)
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Evies Dad;332210 wrote:
Harry Trout;332148 wrote:


Certainly I seem to be showing that the volatility of long term returns is the same for VLS 80% and VLS 40% based on their performance thus far. Noting of course that VLS funds have enjoyed bull run conditions since launch.

Understanding all of this should stiffen my resolve. I guess I'm really just sharing my plans for the forum sounding board as it all feels a bit counter intuitive !!


We need to remember that 2022 was the worst bond crash for a century, so one would hope the volatility of VLS40 would be better going forward.


Err, surely it was an inevitable correction back to 'normal', but unfortunately it occurred in barely
a day or two and not the 18-month-ish period that people were assuming it would take ?..
2 users thanked Andrew1952 for this post.
David1965 on 25/01/2025(UTC), Thrugelmir on 25/01/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 26 January 2025 08:31:37(UTC)
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Andrew1952;332228 wrote:
Evies Dad;332210 wrote:
Harry Trout;332148 wrote:


Certainly I seem to be showing that the volatility of long term returns is the same for VLS 80% and VLS 40% based on their performance thus far. Noting of course that VLS funds have enjoyed bull run conditions since launch.

Understanding all of this should stiffen my resolve. I guess I'm really just sharing my plans for the forum sounding board as it all feels a bit counter intuitive !!


We need to remember that 2022 was the worst bond crash for a century, so one would hope the volatility of VLS40 would be better going forward.


Err, surely it was an inevitable correction back to 'normal', but unfortunately it occurred in barely
a day or two and not the 18-month-ish period that people were assuming it would take ?..


Agree with inevitable and the speed in which it happened - many people were either not prepared or oblivious to what their portfolio was invested in - hence the multiple tabloid headlines. But Evies Dad is right in saying going forward the volatility of a bond heavy fund *should* be better. A repeat of the downward moves in bond prices / increase in yields today when yields are at circa 4.6% on the 10yr would be even more headline grabbing than 2022. The equity market would implode. And there's nothing to say we are anywhere near that point currently, unlike the danger that bonds faced before 2022. Hence something like a 40/60 should be a fairly comfortable ride / gamble for anyone wanting low(er) volatility and a 5%/pa return through retirement.
4 users thanked Peanuts for this post.
Evies Dad on 26/01/2025(UTC), Harry Trout on 26/01/2025(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2025(UTC), Thrugelmir on 26/01/2025(UTC)
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