Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

BustWatchers - Debt Default Watch
john brace
Posted: 25 January 2025 20:49:23(UTC)
#71

Joined: 03/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 284

Thanks: 1924 times
Was thanked: 246 time(s) in 108 post(s)
The only useful bit on her CV is working for HBOS complaints team - good experience for what's to come
2 users thanked john brace for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 25/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 25 January 2025 22:59:02(UTC)
#72

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 4,042

Thanks: 13081 times
Was thanked: 16855 time(s) in 3511 post(s)
I'm genuinely confused by Reeves.

She keeps talking about growth and says things that sound like she means business, but her words are at odds with her actions (and those of the government as a whole). Is it a case of tailoring the message to suit the audience, regardless of what she actually plans to do, as was the case with the manifesto? Is it gaslighting? Or does she really want to do all these things, like tackling the benefits system, encouraging investment and so on, but end up thwarted by everyone around her? It wouldn't be the first time that a Chancellor had clashed with a PM / cabinet colleagues, or Treasury officials. Basically I don't believe any of it - or won't until I see it.
4 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Jay P on 25/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 26/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 26/01/2025(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2025(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 26 January 2025 09:17:12(UTC)
#73

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,191

Thanks: 285 times
Was thanked: 5834 time(s) in 1730 post(s)
As context, I am firmly in "none of the above" camp as i don't believe we live in a democracy. Every 4 years groups of people lie and disinform - win 40% of of the 60% of votes cast and then do whatever they fancy for the next four years. As I recall Khan has 16% of the potential London vote and that is heavily skewed to specific London post codes.

Shouting "we are pro-growth" and then doing the exact opposite is something that has become increasingly common and the lies and dis-information is something that really took hold in the Brexit debate and has become the new norm.

We are "pro-growth" and out first actions are to increase train drivers pay and those of Public Sector workers is a piece of newspeak coupled with 1950s labour policy. (I have not had a pay rise for 5 years - the beans aren't in the company to fund one) Underneath this we have the Islington socialist view of the "ordinary working man", flat cap, whippet, factory worker oppressed by a capitalist boss. Think JB Priestley and "An Inspector Calls". That isn't the world real people live in. So, we are getting policy that comes from a bygone age and then disbelief when it doesn't put the world right.

What I think will happen. I am not expecting big spikes in true defaults as I think other things will happen to stop it. Zombies will die but that is part of the process. The issue will be the 1950s labour government trying to keep them alive. :)

1. Unemployment will increase as employment budgets are held flat as costs of employment rise - robotics, automation, offshoring and closures.
2. tax fraud will increase markedly. Why would any sane person hold money in a SIPp that will be subject to IHT and then marginal rate income tax on withdrawls? Why would anyone take a tax charge of 80-92%.. UK is making potential tax exiles of anyone with any wealth they might want to pass on.
3. Wealth in UK will be spent overseas - if you have money, go somewhere else and take your money with you. That isn't just for non-doms - if you have a house worth £1.5M then sell it and go to.............wherever.
4. interest rates will rise as Govt borrowing is forced up to account for a dwindling tax take and demand for UK assets falls. Increasing mortgage rates will encorage tax avoidance as people try to keep enough to pay their accommodation bills. "Side hustles". There is a roaring trade in fake ID documents enabling people to have >1 job and tax allowance and NI number.
5. there will be a skills outflow. I am already seeing that in my industry where non-UK staff are going elsewhere as are the grads that we so expensively train.
6. UK business will relocate to service UK from elsewhere

Fortunately, i don't see the situation staying "as is" for too long as events will cause a change in direction and the next set of liars arrive spouting some populist rhetoric.

lets put the tax on tobacco up to £15/pack £300 a carton ==> A black market is created - you can buy cigarettes for £42/carton - yep its is run by criminals. evidently HMG had not heard what happened in the US under prohibition and to add to matters...........a squillion plastic vapes with lithium batteries are dumped in landfills each year.
4 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Sara G on 26/01/2025(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2025(UTC), Newbie on 26/01/2025(UTC), bill xxxx on 26/01/2025(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 26 January 2025 09:37:31(UTC)
#74

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,191

Thanks: 285 times
Was thanked: 5834 time(s) in 1730 post(s)
i will add another one

Pension withdrawl will be maximised and used to buy other assets that won't be declared for probate eg gold coins, stamps etc this is how third worlders move their money about when times get tough. i had a friend who worked for barclays in Zambia and was exited from the country and only allowed to expatriate about 2% of his wealth in cash.

he turned up in the UK with no cash but a condom sized pouch of precious stones
3 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Sara G on 26/01/2025(UTC), Dexi on 26/01/2025(UTC), Newbie on 27/01/2025(UTC)
8 Pages«Previous page678
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets