As context, I am firmly in "none of the above" camp as i don't believe we live in a democracy. Every 4 years groups of people lie and disinform - win 40% of of the 60% of votes cast and then do whatever they fancy for the next four years. As I recall Khan has 16% of the potential London vote and that is heavily skewed to specific London post codes.
Shouting "we are pro-growth" and then doing the exact opposite is something that has become increasingly common and the lies and dis-information is something that really took hold in the Brexit debate and has become the new norm.
We are "pro-growth" and out first actions are to increase train drivers pay and those of Public Sector workers is a piece of newspeak coupled with 1950s labour policy. (I have not had a pay rise for 5 years - the beans aren't in the company to fund one) Underneath this we have the Islington socialist view of the "ordinary working man", flat cap, whippet, factory worker oppressed by a capitalist boss. Think JB Priestley and "An Inspector Calls". That isn't the world real people live in. So, we are getting policy that comes from a bygone age and then disbelief when it doesn't put the world right.
What I think will happen. I am not expecting big spikes in true defaults as I think other things will happen to stop it. Zombies will die but that is part of the process. The issue will be the 1950s labour government trying to keep them alive. :)
1. Unemployment will increase as employment budgets are held flat as costs of employment rise - robotics, automation, offshoring and closures.
2. tax fraud will increase markedly. Why would any sane person hold money in a SIPp that will be subject to IHT and then marginal rate income tax on withdrawls? Why would anyone take a tax charge of 80-92%.. UK is making potential tax exiles of anyone with any wealth they might want to pass on.
3. Wealth in UK will be spent overseas - if you have money, go somewhere else and take your money with you. That isn't just for non-doms - if you have a house worth £1.5M then sell it and go to.............wherever.
4. interest rates will rise as Govt borrowing is forced up to account for a dwindling tax take and demand for UK assets falls. Increasing mortgage rates will encorage tax avoidance as people try to keep enough to pay their accommodation bills. "Side hustles". There is a roaring trade in fake ID documents enabling people to have >1 job and tax allowance and NI number.
5. there will be a skills outflow. I am already seeing that in my industry where non-UK staff are going elsewhere as are the grads that we so expensively train.
6. UK business will relocate to service UK from elsewhere
Fortunately, i don't see the situation staying "as is" for too long as events will cause a change in direction and the next set of liars arrive spouting some populist rhetoric.
lets put the tax on tobacco up to £15/pack £300 a carton ==> A black market is created - you can buy cigarettes for £42/carton - yep its is run by criminals. evidently HMG had not heard what happened in the US under prohibition and to add to matters...........a squillion plastic vapes with lithium batteries are dumped in landfills each year.