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Blunt Instrument
Posted: 11 March 2025 15:33:44(UTC)

Joined: 21/03/2020(UTC)
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[Deleted, as the issue was addressed in later posts]
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S Dobbo on 11/03/2025(UTC)
Mike ...
Posted: 11 March 2025 17:22:15(UTC)

Joined: 16/03/2023(UTC)
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One problem with investing is the temptation to be overly-aggressive when the going is good…and overly-pessimistic when the investing landscape looks grim.

Wealth is permanently destroyed when pi’s do the opposite of what they should be doing during market turmoil…which is where having an honest conversation with yourself about volatility tolerance and asset allocation comes in.

What is happening now is just a bump in the road; 00-03, 08/09, 2020 were far grimmer (especially 00-03 which felt like a lifetime of death by a thousand cuts).

It’s never nice seeing your pf getting pounded but that’s just the cost of being involved.


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Rob B
Posted: 11 March 2025 17:46:46(UTC)

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Excellent point, Mike. From a high valuation point in mid-January up to last night's closing valuation, my world ex-UK tracker is down a smidge above 8%. It's my biggest single fund holding at 53% odd.

We're not even in correction territory yet..... If there's concern to be had, we're not even close.....

So really think twice about changing your portfolio based on what's happening. If you're changing because your risk profile was wrong, so be it. Maybe a good lesson learned.
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Aminatidi
Posted: 11 March 2025 18:44:13(UTC)

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Rob B;337276 wrote:
Excellent point, Mike. From a high valuation point in mid-January up to last night's closing valuation, my world ex-UK tracker is down a smidge above 8%. It's my biggest single fund holding at 53% odd.

We're not even in correction territory yet..... If there's concern to be had, we're not even close.....

So really think twice about changing your portfolio based on what's happening. If you're changing because your risk profile was wrong, so be it. Maybe a good lesson learned.


It's been interesting how I'm reacting to this so far.

I haven't logged into my IWeb account once this week though I know from Trustnet I'm about 8% down on the FTSE Global All Cap and around half that on the HSBC Global Strategy Balanced.

I think you're right that's for me so far it's more about risk profile than any "fear" about being in a global tracker.

I got lucky and that 10% I sold to go into something like Trojan managed to exactly catch the top and I didn't actually do anything with it so I do have 10% cash I hadn't quite counted on.

Interesting to see how it goes.

Not logging in seems to help 👍🏼
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Thrugelmir
Posted: 11 March 2025 18:46:54(UTC)

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,329

Mike ...;337273 wrote:


Wealth is permanently destroyed when pi’s do the opposite of what they should be doing during market turmoil…



Interestingly inflows into US retail funds have remained positive since the inauguration on the 20th January. Only on one day has there been a net outflow. Around a net $30 billion of purchases.

Now if retail investors had been selling instead.........

ben ski
Posted: 11 March 2025 19:02:49(UTC)

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
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NPH;337196 wrote:
About 3 weeks ago I started a thread on whether it was time to look beyond the global tracker, as Vanguard published research predicting lower returns from US large caps and given the US/large cap concentration risk even in global funds.
The response was that the research was 'toilet paper', that 100% risk on was the way to go, etc.
Now the US markets have fallen back to where they were about 6 months ago, and some people have liquidated their entire portfolios and are talking about a generational loss of wealth.
I'm starting to think this forum isn't the source of sober, helpful comment I was hoping for.


This raises something I did think worth pointing out...

When someone starts a thread asking if they should do something tactical – e.g. underweight US stocks, buy Small-Caps, etc. The reason the sensible answer is almost always "no" is because no one knows what's going to happen. But when you play the tactical game, you put yourself in a position to lose (to players and algorithms that don't know the future either, but can predict your behaviour).

If the next 3 weeks, or 3 years, are defined by e.g. US stocks underperforming, that doesn't mean the advice was wrong. The outcome was still random. The advice was not to play a game in which you don't have an edge. Vanguard have also been saying the same thing for the past 12 years. But also: retail investors, as a group, are the worst people on earth to listen to. The way to use a forum like this is to make sure you're not in agreement with the consensus too much.

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Peanuts
Posted: 11 March 2025 19:26:50(UTC)

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If you're sweating at -10% then you need to revisit the table.

VUSA from peak on 22nd Jan to close today is -13% (currency adding to the loss the UK investor sees)

VWRL (same dates^^) is -9.25%

It's all just noise at the moment.
3 users thanked Peanuts for this post.
Guest on 11/03/2025(UTC), NPH on 11/03/2025(UTC), Joe P on 11/03/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 11 March 2025 19:37:02(UTC)

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,259

Robin B;337217 wrote:
Dunno;337188 wrote:
Robin B;337166 wrote:
Sara G;337148 wrote:
SF100;337144 wrote:
[quote=Robin B;337142][quote=SF100;337138]
LoL
Can you keep your drivel to yourself please
This threads confusing enough as it is


If true this would be quite useful. The HSBC tracker is the cheapest, too, I believe. I'm confused by the back and forth between you both here. SF100, are you saying there's no difference in terms of dealing / valuation points between trackers? It would be useful to be able to discuss this without the topic being lost amid the personal insults.



SF100 seems to have had a fall out with his boyfriend, poor lad. Taking out his frustration on here...

He is probably right, although chose to put it across in a cryptic and confusing way.

It had also been my understanding that the valuation point would come after the dealing time, as per other funds, but when I phoned up HSBC Asset Management and asked, was told that if I bought by noon, that I'd get the previous day's valuation. I even repeated this back to the person as I was surprised by it. She wasn't a native English speaker but seemed fluent enough and confident, and confirmed that my understanding was correct.

I have been unable to check this against my own dealing records because of the way the information is presented so I will phone them again tomorrow and check. I will report back what I am told - if my post was incorrect I will say so in a new post, and apologise in advance if it is so.

The valuation points of funds can vary. E.g. the Vaguard all cap fund has a dealing deadline of 11am but is priced at 9pm GMT that day when the US markets close. A lot can happen in that time. Still, the principle is usually forward pricing.


Would be good to clarify this. Must admit from my own experience I think orders I’ve placed before noon, and I actually usually place them by 9am using iWeb, get dealt at the forthcoming valuation and not at the previous day’s valuation. The price currently showing for this fund is 315.23 as at 10 March, I don’t think you’ll get that if you put an order in this morning.


This is one of those dry topics that, once explored further, reveals some very useful information to serve the average investor. And it is virtually impossible to find it by using Google or AI.


FFS
Or you could just try reading the fund prospectus and/or KIID like an adult.
Would save us all from screeds of gibberish.
NPH
Posted: 11 March 2025 19:40:31(UTC)

Joined: 26/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 66

ben ski;337284 wrote:
NPH;337196 wrote:
About 3 weeks ago I started a thread on whether it was time to look beyond the global tracker, as Vanguard published research predicting lower returns from US large caps and given the US/large cap concentration risk even in global funds.
The response was that the research was 'toilet paper', that 100% risk on was the way to go, etc.
Now the US markets have fallen back to where they were about 6 months ago, and some people have liquidated their entire portfolios and are talking about a generational loss of wealth.
I'm starting to think this forum isn't the source of sober, helpful comment I was hoping for.


This raises something I did think worth pointing out...

When someone starts a thread asking if they should do something tactical – e.g. underweight US stocks, buy Small-Caps, etc. The reason the sensible answer is almost always "no" is because no one knows what's going to happen. But when you play the tactical game, you put yourself in a position to lose (to players and algorithms that don't know the future either, but can predict your behaviour).

If the next 3 weeks, or 3 years, are defined by e.g. US stocks underperforming, that doesn't mean the advice was wrong. The outcome was still random. The advice was not to play a game in which you don't have an edge. Vanguard have also been saying the same thing for the past 12 years. But also: retail investors, as a group, are the worst people on earth to listen to. The way to use a forum like this is to make sure you're not in agreement with the consensus too much.

Neminem Laedit
Posted: 11 March 2025 20:35:44(UTC)

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,473

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I would reiterate...

Don't fret over the portfolio value.

Look only at the deemed income/drawdown.

And of course the '4% Rule', etc. is not the correct metric. It's nonsense...

I'm absolutely cool with these gyrations, having seen far worse all before.

49% of my portfolio is Bitcoin...

Looking forward to the next all-time high.
1 user thanked Neminem Laedit for this post.
Guest on 12/03/2025(UTC)
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