NPH;337196 wrote:About 3 weeks ago I started a thread on whether it was time to look beyond the global tracker, as Vanguard published research predicting lower returns from US large caps and given the US/large cap concentration risk even in global funds.
The response was that the research was 'toilet paper', that 100% risk on was the way to go, etc.
Now the US markets have fallen back to where they were about 6 months ago, and some people have liquidated their entire portfolios and are talking about a generational loss of wealth.
I'm starting to think this forum isn't the source of sober, helpful comment I was hoping for.
This raises something I did think worth pointing out...
When someone starts a thread
asking if they should do something tactical – e.g. underweight US stocks, buy Small-Caps, etc. The reason the sensible answer is almost always
"no" is because no one knows what's going to happen. But when you play the tactical game, you put yourself in a position to lose (to players and algorithms that don't know the future either, but can predict your behaviour).
If the next 3 weeks, or 3 years, are defined by e.g. US stocks underperforming, that doesn't mean the advice was wrong. The outcome was still random. The advice was not to play a game in which you don't have an edge. Vanguard have also been saying the same thing for the past 12 years. But also: retail investors, as a group, are the worst people on earth to listen to. The way to use a forum like this is to make sure you're
not in agreement with the consensus too much.