Joined: 01/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 400
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Tom 123;338200 wrote: World value is outperforming the world index since the end of the 2021 cycle. Look at the 1970s sideways regression after the Nifty Fifty boom: https://www.nasdaq.com/a...ad-map-of-how-to-profit
I aint going all in on a 'all cap' approach when in 2021 we ended up the cycle in a similar vein. I see 2022 to 2024 as another 1966-69. I count 2021 as the end of the cycle on a P/E or CAPE basis. end of 2021 it hot circa 35x-40x. That's end of cycle levels in my view, certainly based on history. Going on P/E today (more generous than CAPE). The S&P 500 is on 26.5x. The Nasdaq Composite 40x according to goggle AI overview. Still widely too expensive. Perhaps a short term bounce and then another leg down. All sideways as valuations regress. Take the value indexes today, similar performance at much less valuation risk. The growth indexes need earnings growth. That simply is not high enough today to support P/Es. PEGs are simply too high. In this chart, in all previous honey sucking bears or whatever you like to call call them, the highs at the end of the bus run has not been exceeded but the 2021 peak has been smashed through 
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