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mcminvest
Posted: 14 March 2025 09:52:18(UTC)

Joined: 22/02/2018(UTC)
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smg8;337432 wrote:
Mr GL;337427 wrote:
smg8;337417 wrote:

Once upon a time this was a forum favourite for example;



What do you think the current forum favourite is?
My guess is somewhere between JGGI (down about 7% YTD if I add back the ex div amount) or VWRP down 5.5% YTD...

However for drawdowns from peak using 23rd Jan closing looks like VWRP is down about 8.5% from peak and JGGI down about 11% (again adding back div) from peak...


Ah, brings back memories of the forum herd portfolio thread.

I think the difference between above (BG Global Discovery/EWI) and what's happening now is that above is a massive bet on the most extreme end of the scale of a factor.

So if a global tracker is now a forum favourite (which I'd say it is), that's a bet that over the long term stocks will go up. That seems a fairly sensible bet to make, as the history books show us it's usually a winning bet over long enough periods of time. The fact they are going down now, is kind of ok because sometimes stocks do go down.

The BG performance is astonishingly bad because they've destroyed massive amounts of wealth during a term stocks have gone up. It's almost unfathomable how bad a job the managers of that fund have done as you can compare it to ANY other benchmark (global stocks, growth stocks, global small caps, tech, etc) and they've massively underperformed.

JGGI is definitely the forum favourite active at the moment. As mentioned before, the risk profile of JGGI has changed as they've gone from underweight M7 and US to overweight M7 (M4 in their case) and US so it's little surprise that in a US and M7 led sell off they've underperformed over this few week period. It looks less defensive than it used to, and that's transpired.

That being said the OEIC of it is only down 4.73% YTD, so marginally worse than an OEIC global tracker (-4.45%) if we want to take discounts and the like out of the equation.


I am one of the ones that got burned a bit by Global Discovery but had sense and cut my losses (I know, I should of sold during pandemic when it went north of 100% gain for me).

Also had Vanguard Global Equity Fund in SIPP and discovered that Baillie Gifford managed it so spun that into US Equity fairly pronto.

Still have BG Pacific along with Fundsmith as my only actives (in ISA) but otherwise all passive now and using contributions to lessen their weighting in my portfolio to eventually sell.

BTW, also had BG Japanese Smaller companies in ISA, went same way as Discovery. You live and learn!!!!

But, both managers still in their jobs!!!! WTH!!! I was paying higher fees for these guys!!
2 users thanked mcminvest for this post.
smg8 on 14/03/2025(UTC), Sara G on 14/03/2025(UTC)
AlanT
Posted: 14 March 2025 11:26:29(UTC)

Joined: 23/07/2010(UTC)
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Tug Boat;337508 wrote:
BUT is now becoming interesting.


Yes, what's going on here, gradually falling back after a decent run. Was doing well despite being light on Mag7 and USA overall. Just reversion to mean or more?
2 users thanked AlanT for this post.
Sara G on 14/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 14/03/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 14 March 2025 19:40:40(UTC)

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
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So VWRL up 1.46% today, taking weekly losses to just -0.8%. And maybe even a profit if you bought the dip.

Perhaps markets were happy with a 10% correction. Economic data's still strong, and even revised down, price targets on the S&P would still be a double digit return over the year. Or maybe markets fall another 10%. So if you have gone to cash, how do you navigate that? How many 1.5% days do you miss?

And that's symbolic of why this environment is a nightmare for active investors. Markets spent 15 years reacting to Fed policy – which was always to ease. And in between, markets trended. Now, markets are reacting to a stream of information that's changing by the hour. The Ruffer thread shows the chaos of trying to make decisions in this environment. Why on earth they're trying – it feels like current management's been bussed in off The Apprentice, or handed over to sixth-form work experience students.

Yet with positive real returns on bonds and cash, retail investor madness returning to IT discounts, and plenty of volatility, this has been a great environment to sit back and rebalance. Why on earth have opinions on: how far markets need to fall? When to get back in? Whether to buy defence stocks? Whether to overweight or underweight US tech? It's all grasping at straws.

"Don't just do something, stand there." If markets are going to react to everything, let rebalancing ensure you're always taking the other position on those trades. You're going to keep driving your average purchase prices down. Stop caring so much about 1 year or 6 months – there are only two paths to success: stay ahead of the market on every macro and trend trade, or hold things at good value and let the cashflows translate into returns.

13 users thanked ben ski for this post.
Jesse M on 14/03/2025(UTC), Fin Man V on 14/03/2025(UTC), Guest on 14/03/2025(UTC), LondonYank84 on 14/03/2025(UTC), Robin B on 14/03/2025(UTC), Guest on 15/03/2025(UTC), Helen L on 15/03/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 15/03/2025(UTC), L.P. on 15/03/2025(UTC), smg8 on 15/03/2025(UTC), Peter61 on 15/03/2025(UTC), Micawber on 15/03/2025(UTC), Johan De Silva on 16/03/2025(UTC)
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