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NPH
Posted: 15 March 2025 22:00:04(UTC)
#11

Joined: 26/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 91
Andrew1952;337703 wrote:
NPH;337520 wrote:
Busy doing nothing;337505 wrote:
Well because valuations are down a little compared to a couple of weeks ago, my choice would be L&G Global 100 Index Trust.


I think it's a great fund but I already have about 15% of my total portfolio in it


-6.86% YTD If Investors Chronicle is to be believed.


Up 11% in a year and 45% in 3 so I'm not worried, but are you endorsing or suggesting otherwise?
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Andrew1952
Posted: 15 March 2025 22:03:28(UTC)
#27

Joined: 06/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 542
ben ski;337619 wrote:
10 years is always going to be a punt .. We could well be near the top of the very long bull market .. We conventionally value a business on 15 years earnings – meaning, if you keep the business going, you pay off your investment after 15 years and start going into profit. Anything less and you're probably dealing with bonds.

But two of my largest holdings I always feel happy to put spare cash into:

3IN – very high quality, robust, great team, and a completely nonsensical discount. We'll always need infrastructure.

HGT – such a long, consistent track record of creating value. Software might be a bit of a punt, given all sorts of ways AI could disrupt everything around software. But an immediate need will be bringing AI into large businesses – accounting, legal, etc. and HG Capital seems well positioned and networked for that.

Two essential, high quality (basically) private equity funds, with management who've demonstrated extreme consistency in value creation.


But 3IN has gone effectively nowhere, growth-wise for 5 years and for the last year it has
drifted slowly down from circa £3.50 to circa £3.20 today.
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Rory Barr
Posted: 16 March 2025 12:10:44(UTC)
#39

Joined: 18/11/2018(UTC)
Posts: 739

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If it’s truly a free bet with no consequences I’d go 50% gold and 50% BTC. Fiat currencies will devalue over next 10 years so a store of value with limited supply may do well. So may 100% equities of course…
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NPH on 16/03/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 16 March 2025 21:12:25(UTC)
#28

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,381

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Andrew1952;337708 wrote:
ben ski;337619 wrote:
10 years is always going to be a punt .. We could well be near the top of the very long bull market .. We conventionally value a business on 15 years earnings – meaning, if you keep the business going, you pay off your investment after 15 years and start going into profit. Anything less and you're probably dealing with bonds.

But two of my largest holdings I always feel happy to put spare cash into:

3IN – very high quality, robust, great team, and a completely nonsensical discount. We'll always need infrastructure.

HGT – such a long, consistent track record of creating value. Software might be a bit of a punt, given all sorts of ways AI could disrupt everything around software. But an immediate need will be bringing AI into large businesses – accounting, legal, etc. and HG Capital seems well positioned and networked for that.

Two essential, high quality (basically) private equity funds, with management who've demonstrated extreme consistency in value creation.


But 3IN has gone effectively nowhere, growth-wise for 5 years and for the last year it has
drifted slowly down from circa £3.50 to circa £3.20 today.


Before we go into 3IN, we have to be aware that past performance is generally one of the worst criteria to select funds on. Taking nothing else into account, it's about the most reliable way to underperform.

Actually, 3IN's compounded value even faster over this period, without missing a beat, and with a progressive dividend. It's been one of the strongest portfolios in the alternative assets space.

I'm not sure retail investors are doing this, but you have to look at the NAV – because that's the fund's portfolio performance, and that's what you're buying. What's happened over 5 years is people were buying it at a 20% premium, and now they're selling it at a -15% discount. This is the cheapest you've been able to buy the portfolio in at least a decade. I don't know why retail investors don't want to own it now, but if you're willing to assume they're idiotically wrong (they usually are) this is how you buy verifiable bargains. It may take years to correct, but if you consider you've only bought it at discounted periods, you'll have made an exceptionally high return for a low-risk, income-generating portfolio.

https://i.imgur.com/yJWdODE.png
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Johan De Silva on 16/03/2025(UTC), Mostly Rational on 16/03/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 16 March 2025 21:25:58(UTC)
#29

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
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3IN is £2.94billion market cap.
I would doubt the discount is down to "dumb" retail investors.
In addition, everyone is tipping it which is usually a source for retail to be buying, not selling.
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Thrugelmir on 16/03/2025(UTC), Jay P on 16/03/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 16 March 2025 21:40:28(UTC)
#33

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
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SF100;337787 wrote:
3IN is £2.94billion market cap.
I would doubt the discount is down to "dumb" retail investors.
In addition, everyone is tipping it which is usually a source for retail to be buying, not selling.


Latest published NAV was at 30th September 2024. Across the piste there's been a universal write down of NAV's in the sector in the intervening period since then. That 15% discount has undoubtably fallen to a level where it's little more than a question of subjectivity and assumption. The 6 month share price fall of 7% likewise reflects the broader market outlook.
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SF100 on 16/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 16 March 2025 21:48:55(UTC)
#40

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,433
Both PINT and 3IN show strong NAV growth over the last 1 year resulting in a total return at over 10 percent.

One key thing to note is that FTSE 250 companies have underperformed since COVID. Months before COVID the FTSE 250 kept up with the S&P500 for many yearss sinse the financial crisis.

I do believe the FTSE 250 has a few really strong unknown and unloved companies and trusts Vs US where both dumb and smart money is going.
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ben ski
Posted: 16 March 2025 21:55:35(UTC)
#30

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
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SF100;337787 wrote:
3IN is £2.94billion market cap.
I would doubt the discount is down to "dumb" retail investors.
In addition, everyone is tipping it which is usually a source for retail to be buying, not selling.


Maybe keep your doubts in a quiet, dark place until you can be bothered to do some research.

3IN's 63% owned by misc. investors, with 29% of its institutional ownership being 3i group. So we can assume it's largely traded by retail and retail funds (Schroder, ValuTrac, CG).

HGT's £2.6bn, and look at this retail investor clown bike ride to nowhere. Sold down to a 30% discount, because of market jitters. Then they had to buy back in again. Nothing that was happening had any notable effect on that portfolio. And premiums on ITs were just as idiotic several years earlier (LTI, renewables...).

https://i.imgur.com/9MAHq5z.png
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NPH on 16/03/2025(UTC), Robin B on 16/03/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 16 March 2025 23:49:56(UTC)
#31

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,266

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ben ski;337792 wrote:
SF100;337787 wrote:
3IN is £2.94billion market cap.
I would doubt the discount is down to "dumb" retail investors.
In addition, everyone is tipping it which is usually a source for retail to be buying, not selling.


Maybe keep your doubts in a quiet, dark place until you can be bothered to do some research.

3IN's 63% owned by misc. investors, with 29% of its institutional ownership being 3i group. So we can assume it's largely traded by retail and retail funds (Schroder, ValuTrac, CG).


Eric, quoted below, your best mate Chat Gpt disagrees with your in depth analysis.
Perhaps he is confused by the definition of Institutional c.f Publicly Listed companies.

Quote:
After reviewing the annual reports of both 3i Group plc (III) and 3i Infrastructure plc (3IN) for the year ending 31 March 2024, there is no indication that 3i Group plc directly owns shares in 3i Infrastructure plc.

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ben ski
Posted: 17 March 2025 01:02:32(UTC)
#32

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,381

Thanks: 434 times
Was thanked: 3999 time(s) in 1032 post(s)
SF100;337802 wrote:
ben ski;337792 wrote:
SF100;337787 wrote:
3IN is £2.94billion market cap.
I would doubt the discount is down to "dumb" retail investors.
In addition, everyone is tipping it which is usually a source for retail to be buying, not selling.


Maybe keep your doubts in a quiet, dark place until you can be bothered to do some research.

3IN's 63% owned by misc. investors, with 29% of its institutional ownership being 3i group. So we can assume it's largely traded by retail and retail funds (Schroder, ValuTrac, CG).


Eric, quoted below, your best mate Chat Gpt disagrees with your in depth analysis.
Perhaps he is confused by the definition of Institutional c.f Publicly Listed companies.

Quote:
After reviewing the annual reports of both 3i Group plc (III) and 3i Infrastructure plc (3IN) for the year ending 31 March 2024, there is no indication that 3i Group plc directly owns shares in 3i Infrastructure plc.



You can read about it in their annual report. But great work doing another completely pointless post because you couldn't be bothered to do any research.

"A higher limit of 30% will apply to the Company’s investment in 3i Infrastructure plc."

https://www.3i.com/media/nnrkjwke/annual_report_and_accounts_2024.pdf
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