Funnily enough I'm a vague acquaintance of Liv ... Really nice girl ... I remember years back when she was plucked for a Channel 4 show in which they taught a small group of people off the street how to play poker



I will look up that film ... Loved Daniel Craig's Bond playing against Mads Mikkelson (sp?) in 2006's Casino Royale

I must admit I find more parallels between poker and investing than I used to ... When I invest in an infrastructure fund, I am betting on it going up

If it goes down 15%, I might double down on the bet (AKA rebalance), or I might fold (AKA use a stop) ... Statistically, either tends to work out better than doing nothing, because of course some markets just keep going down

Worst case, I keep rebalancing into a losing asset (the kind of poker hands you don't want to get drawn into – "raise, raise, dammit raise" – e.g. Japan post-1990)

Income investing feels much less like betting/gambling, but then we know that *really* a dividend is just earnings that other companies are using to expand their businesses ... So I think dividends only give the illusion of a guaranteed return – they're not creating anything from thin air

I probably haven't made the case very well, but when it comes down to it, it doesn't make much difference whether I invest on my fund platform, or my spread betting account ... It's just the latter somehow feels much more like gambling (it can actually be a lot safer)

And that's why I hold shares in Paddy Power Betfair at the moment, the undisputed leader in the market. Although Ladbrokes and Coral's seem to be intent on a tie up. Most people lose at the bookies there is no disputing that.

I know nothing about horses, all I know about it the mechanics of matched betting and maths. I apply this knowledge to give myself an edge versus the bookies. I know more about football and the same applies. If I am betting on a football match I am not always looking at form but the odds and if they fit the criteria for matched betting. Backing an underdog is perfectly acceptable in matched betting because if it loses, then my exchange lay wins. When I am making lay bets on betfair I am effectively the bookie and someone else is taking my odds.

In the 4 months I have been doing this, I have lost two bookies mainly because I flagged myself up with my betting patterns and took Paddy Power for £1300 from an initial deposit of £30. Naturally they didn't like this, a similar thing happened with Betfair.

Now I am backing lower odds horses and trying to lose at the bookie and win at the exchange, it is helping keep my bookie accounts in good order. If by the time I have all my bookmaker accounts restricted for promotions, I have made £20/30k I am more than happy with that. Even then there are matched betting techniques, which work on each way races where the bookmaker is offering to pay out on 4 places say instead of 3. There is also Sports Trading on Betfair which is not dissimilar to financial trading but this is much more high risk than Matched Betting, which if you do things right is very low/no risk.

Getting down to the basics of betting, you have organisers taking a percentage, and participants that individually either win or lose, often in sequence.

If the organisers survive, it means that the aggregate bets by the customers are losers overall.

Anyone who says he can consistently beat the system is like the investor who says he can do market-timing to perfection, while others can't.

Interestingly, the most highly-rated investment managers deny that they can do market-timing successfully. Terry Smith for one, but there are plenty of others.

I really think you need to understand the relationship between the bookmakers and the exchange Alan, something you are not factoring into your comments.

When someone places a bet at the bookies and then lays the opposite outcome at the exchange, in the exchange they are the bookie!

Covering ALL of the outcomes, is what makes matched betting work when there is the inducement of a free bet for meeting certain qualifying criteria.

Thanks I am not trying to get rich just earn a few extra pounds doing something I love ie watching team sports.

With regards to paddy I can still wager with them but I am banned from their promotions and my max stake has been reduced. The reason you probably still have your accounts is because you aren't taking value off the bookie. Next time you place a bet check out the lay price on betfair. If there is less than 5 % difference then you are taking. Value and the sports traders will monitor your account. If the lay price is higher than the bookie price then you are taking an Arbritrage bet. By using a matched betting calculator you can calculate the stakes require to lay in betfair that ensures you clear a profit regardless of the outcome.

Bookies hate this and will close your account down eventually. I am on my iPad I will send some links that explain taking value tomorrow when I get back to my desktop.