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vietnam
Posted: 30 June 2010 14:20:34(UTC)
#1

Joined: 09/05/2010(UTC)
Posts: 2
Currently (at least until today) FX market reading emergency budget wrong - sterling should depreciate on long term deflation / Japan scenario for UK rather than as at present
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Damnbuster
Posted: 01 July 2010 11:19:50(UTC)
#2

Joined: 22/08/2009(UTC)
Posts: 1
Er...why? Depreciate against what exactly? The euro for example? I don't think so. Sterling has been climbing steadily and is now hovering around €1.21 - €1.23 more or less what it was at the start of the crisis. Plus we can see beginning of a consensus that UK interest rates will have to rise sooner rather than later - if I was a currency speculator I'd be buying sterling.
£ will go on rising against € for the rest of the year.
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Efe yaman
Posted: 01 July 2010 11:52:19(UTC)
#3

Joined: 23/12/2009(UTC)
Posts: 1
i agree with Damnbuster.

UK is doing what it can to reduce its deficit. The market is appreciating the pledges and pricing £ accordingly. If the pledges do not become reality then £ will depreciate. Otherwise £ will continue to hover around 1.21-1.23 euro mark or even appreciate solely because euro is so much in trouble.

£ vs USD is a different matter all together. flight to safety will be to the USD every time.
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vietnam
Posted: 12 July 2010 23:23:20(UTC)
#4

Joined: 09/05/2010(UTC)
Posts: 2
this is view UBS in FT today- SEVEN REASONS TO SELL £

"First, the rest of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to join Andrew Sentance in voting for rate hikes.
Second, the beneficial impact of last month’s Budget has now been priced into sterling.
Third, the scale of the budget cuts forecast for the next four years will undermine growth.
Fourth, exports can’t be relied upon to take up the slack
Fifth, the MPC remains willing to resume quantitative easing if the economy weakens
Sixth, tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy can result in a much weaker pound as occurred after the 1981 austerity budget.
Seventh, other major currencies like the yen have also experienced prolonged weakness when fiscal policy has been tightened during times of economic weakness"

Add to the above-

1. The dynamics of non consensual coalition politics
2. And/or why assume planned budget defecit policies will/can be succesfully implemented (eg: public expenditure cuts)
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Dian
Posted: 31 March 2018 09:32:55(UTC)
#5

Joined: 09/10/2016(UTC)
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2 users thanked Dian for this post.
Mr Helpful on 31/03/2018(UTC), Guest on 02/04/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 06 April 2018 07:54:23(UTC)
#6

Joined: 09/10/2016(UTC)
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Mr Helpful
Posted: 06 April 2018 10:10:14(UTC)
#7

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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Dian;60232 wrote:
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/941799/pound-dollar-GBP-USD-exchange-rate-worsens-services-PMI

£sterling seems to be tracking sideways around a US$1.40 median?
Or is this a slow topping out process?
Or just a pause?
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1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Peter59 on 25/04/2018(UTC)
sandid3
Posted: 06 April 2018 11:01:15(UTC)
#8

Joined: 18/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 651
World Service - The Big Idea: Monkey Money

What can monkeys tell us about the stock market? Apes and monkeys are our closest animal relatives. We share a common evolutionary history. Through studying them, Laurie Santos believes we can learn a bit about ourselves and our attitude to money. Laurie Santos has taught monkeys to use money (or tokens). And it turns out that in experiments, monkeys make some ‘financial’ decisions which are remarkably similar to those made by humans. This may explain why we humans keep facing financial crises!

Presented by David Edmonds (9mins.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csxfj1
Free but no free grapes.
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Mr J
Posted: 09 April 2018 22:45:13(UTC)
#9

Joined: 30/09/2014(UTC)
Posts: 143

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I wonder if monkeys are as complex as us...

http://www.visualcapital...-single-cognitive-bias/

Anyway I know I am right, or at least I know I am right when I say I am wrong.
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1 user thanked Mr J for this post.
sandid3 on 10/04/2018(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 09 April 2018 22:50:34(UTC)
#10

Joined: 17/12/2011(UTC)
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Trying to trade currencies is a mug's game if you don't have a crystal ball AND/OR don't control major global decision-making 'levers'.

Some of the most reputable investors deny that they have any skills in this area.

'Don't bet against the FED' was a popular mantra.
Similar slogans will always abound.
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2 users thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
gillyann on 10/04/2018(UTC), Big boy on 10/04/2018(UTC)
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