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Adam James
Posted: 10 October 2018 11:14:28(UTC)
#1

Joined: 10/10/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1
Hi guys.

I'm looking for some advice/opinions on how Brexit might impact the property market in the coming months.

I've struggled to find anything useful on this online so far. Completely understand it's fairly unpredictable and an unparalleled event, but feel like a few members of this forum might have some idea of how the market might change!

Would love to hear your thoughts

Thanks,

A
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Mr J
Posted: 25 October 2018 19:54:22(UTC)
#2

Joined: 30/09/2014(UTC)
Posts: 143

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I guess after two weeks that’s NOBODY KNOWS !

Some think Brexit will be a storm in a teacup and once the storm blows over the pound will rise, interest rates will creep up and probably property prices stagnant to rising with earnings at tops.

Others think Brexit will destroy the country, interest rates will have to be cut, the pound will plummet and all the fallout will see property prices falling. What did fear monger Carney say - 30% falls.

NOBODY KNOWS !
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2 users thanked Mr J for this post.
Tim D on 25/10/2018(UTC), Mostly Retired on 28/10/2018(UTC)
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 25 October 2018 20:58:57(UTC)
#3

Joined: 14/08/2013(UTC)
Posts: 538
Do nothing at present.

Await Budget and re-evaluate as I suspect Mr Hammond needs to announce measures to
re-invigorate the UK housing market.

Barratt Developments (which I hold) and MJ Gleeson (which I do not) to prosper in time. MJG concentrated in the North with lower value homes.
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Mr Helpful
Posted: 26 October 2018 10:01:23(UTC)
#4

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985
Depends on what alternative Asset Classes are under consideration.
Monies have to flow somewhere?

What type of property exposure are we talking about?
Home ownership
BTL
Commercial, direct or REITs etc

Some are expensive, some cheap, others fair to middling.
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Aidan MacGinley
Posted: 26 October 2018 14:02:44(UTC)
#5

Joined: 01/12/2014(UTC)
Posts: 65

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Personally I think builders are very cheap at the moment. Every political party seems to want to increase the population by considerable amounts each year and people will have to live somewhere. The dividends offered by most builders are huge and they could well turn out to be big bargains.

As for the commercial sector I would avoid retail because of long term trends in shopping and buy Reits specialising in warehousing and the industrial sector. Really don't think Brexit will have much impact at all as the most likely outcome seems to be Brexit in name only at present.

The really terrifying thing would be a Corbyn led government but that is for another thread if it ever looks likely.
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Alexander Johnston on 26/10/2018(UTC)
Alexander Johnston
Posted: 26 October 2018 18:30:40(UTC)
#6

Joined: 22/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,998
One of the main factors in increasing potential household formation has been the high level of net migration into the UK which has been running at unsustainable levels.
This was a factor in the Brexit vote.
This in turn is a major component of increasing effective demand for housing.
Whatever political party is in power the imperative will be to reduce immigration levels and dampen the growth of housing needs and therefore effective demand.
Also the trend in interest rates is upward.

I would tread warily on investing in house builders given these demographic and monetary considerations.

Housing building demand and supply tends to be more cyclical because it's a capital good/asset.
I suspect that a Corbyn government would be helpful to house builders because of their commitment to dramatically increase Council house building. (Although possibly disastrous for everything else).
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The Colonel
Posted: 27 October 2018 10:05:12(UTC)
#7

Joined: 19/09/2009(UTC)
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Its not Brexit that worries me its the thought of a Corbyn Government
with McDonell and the idiot Diane Abbott having anything to do with
Governing the Country
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5 users thanked The Colonel for this post.
Dexi on 27/10/2018(UTC), SimonHughes on 27/10/2018(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 28/10/2018(UTC), anglo29 on 28/10/2018(UTC), t s on 29/10/2018(UTC)
anglo29
Posted: 28 October 2018 17:42:52(UTC)
#8

Joined: 04/12/2015(UTC)
Posts: 779
The Colonel;71672 wrote:
Its not Brexit that worries me its the thought of a Corbyn Government
with McDonell and the idiot Diane Abbott having anything to do with
Governing the Country



Exactly. Few will want to invest in a loony government that appears to want to nationalise everything in sight, with the "workers" in control. They seem to have learnt nothing from the disaster of Venezuela, a country they reckoned "we could learn from".

Brexit will be a mere side-show if Islington's champagne socialists get a sniff of power. It won't be just construction companies that will plummet.
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Bruce J.
Posted: 28 October 2018 18:01:33(UTC)
#9

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In response to the original question, I own some buy to let property in London and have seen amazing price rises in the last five years, but I dont feel confident that this is a good time to buy. Even in a recession prices dont tend to drop much, the market just goes static, so existing properties are usually a safe way to hold capital, but there are ongoing issues with a range of legal requirements such as gas checks and local authority licensing, also it can be difficult to cash in your gains (not forgetting capital gains tax)

In the near future I intend to buy into companies like Grainger as I have noticed a huge expansion in major companies doing "build to rent". I feel that the rental income is very secure - people will always pay for the roof over their heads even if they cant afford a foreign holiday or a new car - and holding shares in a landlord company allows you to sell out any time.

So, as long as the future looks uncertain I think shares in rental firms give a good blend of security and convenience.

As for the latter part of the discussion, I agree completely that the concept of Mr Corbyn and Ms Abbot in charge of anything more than a hot dog stall, fills me with more terror than any horror film ever could.
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t s on 29/10/2018(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 12/11/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 28 October 2018 20:16:02(UTC)
#10

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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I'll just put this out there: https://labour.org.uk/ma...o/secure-homes-for-all/

I don't think it's all bad. A clampdown on rogue landlords and substandard properties could be quite positive for the "professionalisation" of the sector and benefit large-scale corporate operations. OTOH mention of rent controls and a massive house-building campaign seem sure to scare investors away from an asset class which until now can only have benefited from freedom to exploit supply-side shortages to whatever degree the market will bear.

I have a fair amount of exposure myself, through a rental property and holdings ranging from the old Hearthstone Residential fund to newfangled things like PRSR, SOHO, CSH & RESI; waiting to see if my subscription to the MHR IPO is going anywhere too.
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