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House prices in 2019?
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Jake Allen
Posted: 11 March 2019 11:47:56(UTC)
#1

Joined: 11/03/2019(UTC)
Posts: 3
Ok, so Halifax came out with a rather misleading 6.9% jump month on month today but their their criteria does not give the full picture.
I still see growth in 2019 but perhaps in the 1 - 3 % level as a national average with the usual regional +ve/-ve variations.

What do you think?
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Trudy Scrumptious
Posted: 11 March 2019 13:11:15(UTC)
#2

Joined: 10/01/2008(UTC)
Posts: 169
Surely depends upon the Brexit outcome. I'm not sure about a "No Deal" leading to a 30% drop in house prices, but leaving the EU with no deal may undermine confidence in the market to some extent.
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MBA MBA
Posted: 11 March 2019 18:50:44(UTC)
#3

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725
Next planned election 2022...govt will start pumping the market a year or two before
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philip gosling
Posted: 12 March 2019 07:56:54(UTC)
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UK is not a single market - London is very different from Sunderland or Birmingham or Cardiff or Glasgow. High end million pound London homes and high cost rentals will suffer after BREXIT - more if there is no deal - because International companies continue to move people to an EU base from London. But that will have no impact in most of the UK.
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2 users thanked philip gosling for this post.
Alexander Johnston on 15/03/2019(UTC), Peter59 on 15/03/2019(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 12 March 2019 10:00:35(UTC)
#5

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985
Jake Allen;78809 wrote:
Ok, so Halifax came out with a rather misleading 6.9% jump month on month today but their their criteria does not give the full picture.
I still see growth in 2019 but perhaps in the 1 - 3 % level as a national average with the usual regional +ve/-ve variations.
What do you think?

From what perspective is the question being asked?
E.G.
About to buy a first property as main residence
About to buy larger or smaller main residence
About to add to or reduce an existing BTL property portfolio
Or just curious about present main residence

UK domestic property like most other Asset Classes seems richly priced today, presumably due to the effects of QE et al (cost of capital). The perspective alters the conclusions, or any possible actions.
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Alan Selwood
Posted: 12 March 2019 11:13:30(UTC)
#6

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Apart from international buyers in high-end London houses, where international politics and taxation may have more of a bearing than for most, I think it always comes down to UK supply and demand. Current government subsidies out of taxpayers money for buyers of new houses would slow the market if removed or reduced, and liquidity for buyers and sellers would then fall, leading to longer lead-times or deferment of purchases.

If interest rates stay down, and unemployment levels stay low, house prices will continue to see demand exceeding supply as long as pay levels don't fall further behind the cost of living. If interest rates rise and/or employment falls or pay levels fall behind housing costs, demand will be forced down, so house prices will stagnate or fall.

Who knows which of these various changes will come to pass!
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3 users thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
Mr Helpful on 12/03/2019(UTC), Tim D on 12/03/2019(UTC), David BB on 15/03/2019(UTC)
Alexander Johnston
Posted: 15 March 2019 11:55:01(UTC)
#7

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If the level of net migration into the UK is reduced in the short, medium and long-terms, which is likely IMO, this will have a pronounced impact on reducing housing needs and effective demand.
High and unsustainable levels of net positive migration into the UK (immigration minus emigration), particularly England, has been one of the principle factors fuelling increasing housing need and effective demand. This is likely to decrease in future.
Also once the Brexit issue is resolved, assuming it will be resolved, quantitative easing could go into reverse, interest rates could rise and affordability reduced.
Eventually there is also the possibility in the medium term of a Labour Government which would put emphasis on Council house building and could restrict foreigners buying expensive dwellings say, in London, and leaving them empty for long periods.
The point that there isn't one UK housing market is well made. Housing markets tend to coincide with journey-to-work areas.
The success of otherwise of Government regional policy, such as the Northern Powerhouse and the Midlands' Engine which aim to reduce inter-regional disparity, could also have an impact.
Given the present level of uncertainty I expect unemployment to increase, net capital formation to decline and DFI (Direct Foreign Investment) to fall; therefore, at best, I foresee a small increase in house prices for 2019 or even a small fall in most parts of the country.
I could be wrong of course.
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2 users thanked Alexander Johnston for this post.
Peter59 on 15/03/2019(UTC), anglo29 on 26/03/2019(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 15 March 2019 12:41:25(UTC)
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Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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Alexander Johnston;79088 wrote:
If the level of net migration into the UK is reduced in the short, medium and long-terms, which is likely IMO, this will have a pronounced impact on reducing housing needs and effective demand.
High and unsustainable levels of net positive migration into the UK (immigration minus emigration), particularly England, has been one of the principle factors fuelling increasing housing need and effective demand. This is likely to decrease in future.
Also once the Brexit issue is resolved, assuming it will be resolved, quantitative easing could go into reverse, interest rates could rise and affordability reduced.
Eventually there is also the possibility in the medium term of a Labour Government which would put emphasis on Council house building and could restrict foreigners buying expensive dwellings say, in London, and leaving them empty for long periods.
The point that there isn't one UK housing market is well made. Housing markets tend to coincide with journey-to-work areas.
The success of otherwise of Government regional policy, such as the Northern Powerhouse and the Midlands' Engine which aim to reduce inter-regional disparity, could also have an impact.
Given the present level of uncertainty I expect unemployment to increase, net capital formation to decline and DFI (Direct Foreign Investment) to fall; therefore, at best, I foresee a small increase in house prices for 2019 or even a small fall in most parts of the country.
I could be wrong of course.


There was some interesting analysis of the impact of each of those factors over 1991-2016 from the Ministry of Housing etc last year: https://assets.publishin..._House_prices_v_PDF.pdf
(concluded 20% of the price rises of 320% over that period were due to immigration)

Some further analysis of that at https://fullfact.org/imm...isen-because-immigrants/
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Alexander Johnston on 15/03/2019(UTC)
Alexander Johnston
Posted: 15 March 2019 19:40:59(UTC)
#9

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Tim D;79090 wrote:
Alexander Johnston;79088 wrote:
If the level of net migration into the UK is reduced in the short, medium and long-terms, which is likely IMO, this will have a pronounced impact on reducing housing needs and effective demand.
High and unsustainable levels of net positive migration into the UK (immigration minus emigration), particularly England, has been one of the principle factors fuelling increasing housing need and effective demand. This is likely to decrease in future.
Also once the Brexit issue is resolved, assuming it will be resolved, quantitative easing could go into reverse, interest rates could rise and affordability reduced.
Eventually there is also the possibility in the medium term of a Labour Government which would put emphasis on Council house building and could restrict foreigners buying expensive dwellings say, in London, and leaving them empty for long periods.
The point that there isn't one UK housing market is well made. Housing markets tend to coincide with journey-to-work areas.
The success of otherwise of Government regional policy, such as the Northern Powerhouse and the Midlands' Engine which aim to reduce inter-regional disparity, could also have an impact.
Given the present level of uncertainty I expect unemployment to increase, net capital formation to decline and DFI (Direct Foreign Investment) to fall; therefore, at best, I foresee a small increase in house prices for 2019 or even a small fall in most parts of the country.
I could be wrong of course.


There was some interesting analysis of the impact of each of those factors over 1991-2016 from the Ministry of Housing etc last year: https://assets.publishin..._House_prices_v_PDF.pdf
(concluded 20% of the price rises of 320% over that period were due to immigration)

Some further analysis of that at https://fullfact.org/imm...isen-because-immigrants/


Migration Watch is a lobby group but their analysis seems robust to me.
https://www.migrationwat...k.org/briefing-paper/424
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1 user thanked Alexander Johnston for this post.
Tim D on 15/03/2019(UTC)
anglo29
Posted: 26 March 2019 17:24:16(UTC)
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I anticipate London house prices will continue to be unaffordable for the vast majority even if there is a market downturn post Brexit. A 10% reduction in the price of a house bordering on £1 million is hardly going to bring it into the "affordable housing" category for most people.

Also the government was supposed to doing something re. the amount of "money laundering" going on in London by foreign buyers, which has been a factor in escalating prices. A colleague told me of the experience of a friend of his who was making enquiries about flats going up in the Kings Cross area bordering the Regents Canal. Not only did the prices shock him, he was told the particular development he was enquiring about was being marketed to cash buyers in the Far East.....He took that to mean English buyers not wanted.

It seems prices in some northern cities are on the rise; partly due to businesses and their employees moving there to escape impossible London prices. I guess anywhere with good train links to a major city is unlikely to see much of a price downturn.

As has already been mentioned, perhaps a drop in population post Brexit could make a difference, but that could be neutralized by ex-pats returning from Spain and France because of life being made more difficult for them......i.e. UK driving licenses no longer being recognised, UK debit/credit cards not recognised in European ATM machines. Auto increase in Pension payments no longer applying as in UK. Health treatment continuing to be along lines of the NHS here in doubt.

It's almost an impossible one to forecast.
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3 users thanked anglo29 for this post.
Luca Brasi on 26/03/2019(UTC), Martina on 26/03/2019(UTC), Tim D on 27/03/2019(UTC)
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