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SF100
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:02:21(UTC)
#146

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
bédé;153274 wrote:
Easyrider;153213 wrote:
"He who dares wins."
. "Fortune favours the bold."

But venturing a bold posture on what is essentially a CGT/PNL/RICA thread was, perhaps a risky move.

I think it'd be more understandable, if your posture was actually bold......have a think
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Tim D
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:06:18(UTC)
#141

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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Easyrider;153213 wrote:
On the other hand many old soldiers will tell you that the way to survive in battle is to go for it and throw caution to the winds.
"He who dares wins."


Hmmm... sounds like something they tell the cannon-fodder to get them "over the top".

On the other hand, in the aviation world, they have a saying:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots. But there are no old bold pilots."

(HoHo... which maxim would you rather the pilot of your next flight lived by? That, or the SAS one?)
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4 users thanked Tim D for this post.
Easyrider on 17/02/2021(UTC), SF100 on 17/02/2021(UTC), Monty Claret on 17/02/2021(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 17/02/2021(UTC)
Easyrider
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:08:24(UTC)
#147

Joined: 09/11/2020(UTC)
Posts: 1,951
SF100;153283 wrote:
bédé;153274 wrote:
Easyrider;153213 wrote:
"He who dares wins."
. "Fortune favours the bold."

But venturing a bold posture on what is essentially a CGT/PNL/RICA thread was, perhaps a risky move.

I think it'd be more understandable, if your posture was actually bold......have a think


I wasn't referring to me.
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Easyrider
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:09:36(UTC)
#142

Joined: 09/11/2020(UTC)
Posts: 1,951
Tim D;153284 wrote:
Easyrider;153213 wrote:
On the other hand many old soldiers will tell you that the way to survive in battle is to go for it and throw caution to the winds.
"He who dares wins."


Hmmm... sounds like something they tell the cannon-fodder to get them "over the top".

On the other hand, in the aviation world, they have a saying:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots. But there are no old bold pilots."

(HoHo... which maxim would you rather the pilot of your next flight lived by? That, or the SAS one?)


I avoid flying if I can. Ghastly experience.
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1 user thanked Easyrider for this post.
Tim D on 17/02/2021(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:10:24(UTC)
#148

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
Easyrider;153286 wrote:
SF100;153283 wrote:
bédé;153274 wrote:
Easyrider;153213 wrote:
"He who dares wins."
. "Fortune favours the bold."
But venturing a bold posture on what is essentially a CGT/PNL/RICA thread was, perhaps a risky move.

I think it'd be more understandable, if your posture was actually bold......have a think

I wasn't referring to me.

neither was I
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:15:05(UTC)
#197

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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Robin;153176 wrote:
I think this is an interesting discussion.

Bulldog Drummond - your perspective is an interesting one, as an adviser to UHNW individuals it would be interesting to hear your ideas of portfolio construction for those less fortunate who may never recover from a 50% plus drop in value of holdings - what would you recommend for those who would otherwise hold say 40% in wealth preservation - there is of course a big distinction as Easyrider suggests between those who have accumulated a sufficient portfolio and those n the journey who are not there yet, but who could ill afford to see a big drop in portfolio value (if you have £2m and experience 40% drop you'll be ok, if you have £400k - still a very decent amount - and experience a similar drop age say 50 with little hope of much added accumulation - things look different).

You mentioned bond holdings in another thread, Bulldog, RL Global I think - this has been edged by both CGT and PNL over 1 and 3 years and by CGT on 5 (PNL close behind) and it dropped more than CGT and PNL Feb/March 20 - be interested in your take on that, is it a preference for income?

These issues have been discussed in detail before and KL (bless his soul) developed strong arguments for a % in wealth preservation, including for the purposes of rebalance. Be really interested in a little more detail to your thinking?


A very difficult question to answer as in most cases we are looking at a part of someone's portfolio, so there will typically be a lot of cash on deposit elsewhere. Some accounts are 100% equities, but most are much more cautious. Some TIPS and gold, globally quite a lot of private equity, private debt, hedge funds, real estate, bonds. In the UK maybe something like Troy Trojan.

The age point is well made and I suppose that's why most people in the UK using your example will sit on cash or near equivalent. It wouldn't be my choice but I think a lot of this sort of decision is more down to personality than science.
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SF100
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:29:46(UTC)
#198

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
Bulldog Drummond;153289 wrote:
Robin;153176 wrote:
what would you recommend for those who would otherwise hold say 40% in wealth preservation

In the UK maybe something like Troy Trojan.

what, like the kind of investments 'poo-poo'd' by you on this thread?
have you just sobered up......
i'm becoming concerned for your clients (not really)
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Tim D
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:32:02(UTC)
#201

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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Hyndford;153207 wrote:
I very much like the climbing analogy and also see the investment journey as like walking over a hill to the land of wealth.

At the beginning you can be in 100% equities and look to make quick progress on your journey, but as you climb higher you really don't want to slip, fall back and have to start climbing again with all the extra effort that requires.

I fully accept that this puts the brakes on growth and chimes with Tim's billionaire comment as it will make it more difficult to get to the top of the hill. The key for me is trying to find the right balance so that you still have some forward momentum but with some emergency brakes.

Of course once you get to the top of the hill you can start to increase your equity exposure again and freewheel all the way to the bottom.


Nice analogy; I like the "like walking over a hill to the land of wealth".

There's another relevant quote from the mountaineering world has stuck with me:

Put yourself in a position to be lucky. Don't put yourself in a position where you rely on luck.

Someone who puts a limited, considered amount of their wealth into some risky venture is probably doing the former. Someone who goes all-in on it with wealth they can't afford to lose is certainly doing the latter.

Hitting google books for the quote finds the source https://www.google.co.uk...e_Climbing/i6H0ESHr3n8C . Recontextualizing this sort of thing is quite fun, so I'll paste the whole page here:
Put yourself in a position to be lucky.
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Aminatidi
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:34:13(UTC)
#138

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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SF100;153272 wrote:
bédé;153270 wrote:
Aminatidi;153216 wrote:
guaranteed £40K inflation linked income from aged 65 for as long as I live I promise you my attitude to the volatility of my hard won life savings will change.

I have never said any amount. Only the word "modest". And having "frugal needs". Anything else is only known to me. My hard won life savings are happier with a healthy boost.

bédé I agree with you.
But I think Aminatidi was just generalising without directing that at you.
However, it is presumably only 'some' of your 'savings' that are currently undergoing a healthy boost.
The other portion was squirelled into your DB pension, being the point in focus.


I was generalising on the amount but directing it at bédé.

My point being that if you have a guaranteed income that's enough to live on it's perhaps easier to take on more risk (or volatility or whatever we're calling it) than you might without that safety net.

If you use my £40K DB pension example (made up number) it's a bit like me saying that my £250K of investments are entirely in Scottish Mortgage Trust because my appetite for volatility is high but not mentioning that I've got over a million quids worth of guaranteed income sitting in my DB pension.

That million quids worth of guaranteed income feels kind of relevant to how I view things?

I actually like that bédé adds his "db pension" disclaimer to so many posts as it's something that personally I think should be factored in if someone is suggesting 100% equities is the way to go.

I'd like it even more if he shared some of that DB pension with me.
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6 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 17 February 2021 16:51:26(UTC)
#199

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Thanks: 2935 times
Was thanked: 11838 time(s) in 4405 post(s)
SF100;153295 wrote:
Bulldog Drummond;153289 wrote:
Robin;153176 wrote:
what would you recommend for those who would otherwise hold say 40% in wealth preservation

In the UK maybe something like Troy Trojan.

what, like the kind of investments 'poo-poo'd' by you on this thread?
have you just sobered up......
i'm becoming concerned for your clients (not really)


That would be part of a balanced portfolio so you wouldn't see anyone with a big holding in that unless it was part of a drip-feed. I think my point here is that I would be very nervous about a huge allocation to something like CGT or PNL. There's the opportunity cost and some of the "low risk" elements look quite risky to me. And it's almost 5 pm so time for a G&T.
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2 users thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
SF100 on 17/02/2021(UTC), Robin on 17/02/2021(UTC)
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