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Johan De Silva
Posted: 02 March 2025 14:19:41(UTC)
#4387

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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John Bran;336239 wrote:
ben ski;336176 wrote:
If you look at how consistent 3I's NAV's been over 10 years .. And that it's gone from a 20% discount to a 60% premium, with about 5 separate peaks and nearly as many dips .. The discount/premium's never had anything to do with the underlying assets. It's just pure, dumb investor demand. And you'd have done pretty poorly buying on those peaks, considering it's a high quality PE trust with low volatility.

Peak to dip flat, from 2018 to 2022.

On a forum, a year is a long time. But I'd be selling into that premium daily. And I'd be buying 3IN, which is on an equally inexplicable discount.


Started buying at £11 and 20% discount. Stopped buying at £18..
Started selling at £24 up to £41 plus.
I bought on a peak?

Relax, John. We're not against you. However, this misunderstanding(?) is causing you to overlook the fact that a switch of some of these funds to 3IN would be more advantageous on a risk-adjusted basis.
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Big boy on 02/03/2025(UTC), John Bran on 03/03/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 02 March 2025 14:56:04(UTC)
#4384

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
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ben ski;336176 wrote:
If you look at how consistent 3I's NAV's been over 10 years .. And that it's gone from a 20% discount to a 60% premium, with about 5 separate peaks and nearly as many dips .. The discount/premium's never had anything to do with the underlying assets. It's just pure, dumb investor demand. And you'd have done pretty poorly buying on those peaks, considering it's a high quality PE trust with low volatility.

Peak to dip flat, from 2018 to 2022.

On a forum, a year is a long time. But I'd be selling into that premium daily. And I'd be buying 3IN, which is on an equally inexplicable discount.

Firstly isn't dumb money where gains and losses are usually made - Friends and Fool and all that.
Just as a retail outlet gets busier with more people waiting and queuing outside for a (supposed) sale of year event, investments also get chased down due to hype, story telling, demand etc. Lets take a property, you do not pay for bricks, mortar, cost of labour, switches etc, you pay for the so called dumb things.

When you pay extortionate first class fare prices, do you really for the intrinsic value. A young member of the family visited yesterday with his precious pair of Nike air forces or Jordans, which has no relevance to the materials or labour ( I did ask in they gave him the ability to fly).

My point is that the very investments which we aim to make monies from make their monies, not out of intrinsic value or NAV but the demand, hype and story telling etc.

Secondly - Where are you seeing the peaks and pullbacks - 3i is a vehicle which is renowned as being a perm premium vehicle.

In saying all that would I buy now - No ( I am bursting at the seams with this), I am in the reduction mode, and as BB alludes to, I more than welcome anyone who is willing to buy from me and sees a daily 2-3% fall as a good buy.

The world is full of dumb people (it is an inherent virtue of mankind) and you should be thanking them that they are willing to take heed of your expert knowledgeable advice - oh wait.
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4 users thanked Newbie for this post.
Jon.Snow on 02/03/2025(UTC), Big boy on 02/03/2025(UTC), Johan De Silva on 02/03/2025(UTC), John Bran on 03/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 03 March 2025 14:03:32(UTC)
#4379

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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Reg: CHRY

Some relevant if known anticipated news that Klarna plans to release its F-1 filing to the public this month (March), ahead of the anticipated April IPO. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest fintech listings since 2021 so given that CHRY has a meaningful stake will surely drive new investors into this space. It is the only trust where you can get hold of these in meaningful amounts and has the needed scarcity factor that helps close discounts...

Thrugelmir;336159 wrote:
Starling Bank have problems of their own making to contend with.

What are the specifics around this comment on Starling Bank... are they historic?

In the past, Jupiter Asset Management sold a 6% stake in Starling at a valuation between £1 billion and £1.5 billion, indicating a significant reduction from the previous valuation back in 2023. But I suspect your talking about 2024 where they are "fined £29 million for deficiencies in its anti-money laundering controls?"

More recently they have lost a few customers who did not pass their new eligibility rules for the 4% saver. I suspect this is an indirect way of dealing with the issues found in 2024 and are much stricter.

But thats in the past or in the process of being sorted. The future drivers are strong and that driver may not be the banking itself...

Richard Watts, co-manager at CHRY, projected that the bank could approach a £10 billion valuation in the coming years. This optimistic outlook was based on the anticipated growth of Starling's Software-as-a-Service platform, Engine, which aims to license banking software globally. This platform, Engine, has been monetised and is actively generating revenue by providing banking technology solutions to financial institutions globally.

I have found these client implementations:

1. Salt Bank in Romania: Launched in April 2024, Salt Bank is a digital bank powered by Engine's software. Remarkably, it onboarded 100,000 customers within the first two weeks and aims to reach 1 million customers within three years:
https://moneylowdown.com...?utm_source=chatgpt.com

2. AMP Bank in Australia: Engine is collaborating with AMP Bank to launch a new digital banking offering targeting small business and consumer markets, with a planned rollout in 2025:
https://tech.eu/2024/04/...?utm_source=chatgpt.com

While these are the only publicly disclosed clients, Engine's CEO, Sam Everington, has indicated ambitions to expand into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, citing high levels of digital adoption and a conducive environment for rapid implementation

In summary, Engine has transitioned from development to active monetisation, and is contributing to Starling Bank's revenue streams and international presence so it is more than just it's banking operations that has always had the odd hick up along the way. Engine could be where the long term value could be and CHRY as a trust is now my biggest holding!
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ben ski
Posted: 03 March 2025 19:25:40(UTC)
#4385

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357
Newbie;336244 wrote:
ben ski;336176 wrote:
If you look at how consistent 3I's NAV's been over 10 years .. And that it's gone from a 20% discount to a 60% premium, with about 5 separate peaks and nearly as many dips .. The discount/premium's never had anything to do with the underlying assets. It's just pure, dumb investor demand. And you'd have done pretty poorly buying on those peaks, considering it's a high quality PE trust with low volatility.

Peak to dip flat, from 2018 to 2022.

On a forum, a year is a long time. But I'd be selling into that premium daily. And I'd be buying 3IN, which is on an equally inexplicable discount.

Firstly isn't dumb money where gains and losses are usually made - Friends and Fool and all that.
Just as a retail outlet gets busier with more people waiting and queuing outside for a (supposed) sale of year event, investments also get chased down due to hype, story telling, demand etc. Lets take a property, you do not pay for bricks, mortar, cost of labour, switches etc, you pay for the so called dumb things.

When you pay extortionate first class fare prices, do you really for the intrinsic value. A young member of the family visited yesterday with his precious pair of Nike air forces or Jordans, which has no relevance to the materials or labour ( I did ask in they gave him the ability to fly).

My point is that the very investments which we aim to make monies from make their monies, not out of intrinsic value or NAV but the demand, hype and story telling etc.

Secondly - Where are you seeing the peaks and pullbacks - 3i is a vehicle which is renowned as being a perm premium vehicle.

In saying all that would I buy now - No ( I am bursting at the seams with this), I am in the reduction mode, and as BB alludes to, I more than welcome anyone who is willing to buy from me and sees a daily 2-3% fall as a good buy.

The world is full of dumb people (it is an inherent virtue of mankind) and you should be thanking them that they are willing to take heed of your expert knowledgeable advice - oh wait.


In the case of Nikes, I'd say £100-200 on quality trainers is cheap. It's a lot less than people used to spend on basic shoes. If you're buying collectors editions, then it's a different market – one that's beaten the S&P.

3I's touched its discount four times in the past 10 years. Buying at peak, you'd struggle to make a profit over 5 years, from 2017-2022. And yes, you can profit from dumb money, but it can be painful. Private Equity went from perpetual premiums to discounts in 2009. And most still hasn't recovered – even though we've had one of the best decades for PE in history. You can't always rely on a dumb market self-correcting – at some point boards have to step up.
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Joe P
Posted: 04 March 2025 16:20:18(UTC)
#4389

Joined: 04/10/2022(UTC)
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IPRV down -6% today & HVPE down -3% today.

PE is nice if you like high volatility.
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2 users thanked Joe P for this post.
Newbie on 04/03/2025(UTC), Auric on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 04 March 2025 16:29:11(UTC)
#4390

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
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Joe P;336500 wrote:
IPRV down -6% today & HVPE down -3% today.

PE is nice if you like high volatility.

IPRV - Top up here
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Joe P on 04/03/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 04 March 2025 20:54:22(UTC)
#4391

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357
The volatility in HVPE's been very useful. Buying on that low in Oct, now up 20% and selling a bit.

It's useful because volatility in public markets is often pricing in real risks – so it's an illusion that you can always profit from being a contrarian. But with HVPE, HGT, 3IN, etc. the discounts don't seem to have anything to do with reality – so you can simply trade against them.

My HVPE's on similar profits to HGT, and I think that's largely been volatility and rebalancing.
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2 users thanked ben ski for this post.
Big boy on 04/03/2025(UTC), Johan De Silva on 06/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 06 March 2025 11:49:03(UTC)
#4392

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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Some very significant news just in this morning:
https://www.finews.com/n...ews/66655-klarna-ipo-usa
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1 user thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Big boy on 06/03/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 06 March 2025 12:12:17(UTC)
#4393

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,678
Johan De Silva;336685 wrote:
Some very significant news just in this morning:
https://www.finews.com/n...ews/66655-klarna-ipo-usa


Which of our stocks hold Klama and what sort of uplift are you going for. …

We have been awaiting more IPOs but in mean time we have a few take overs to keep the IT/IC attractive.
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John Bran
Posted: 06 March 2025 12:35:41(UTC)
#4395

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
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Sold all my remaining 3i on a 105%gain.... according to freetrade. IE first in first out. Not over all average.
It is simply falling to far to quickly relative to the rest of my portfolio AND my watch list. I will leave it as cash for now.
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1 user thanked John Bran for this post.
Big boy on 06/03/2025(UTC)
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