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A Point of view: What would Keynes do?
Prof Eman
Posted: 17 August 2012 15:04:44(UTC)
#42

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Correction
Meant to say world recession.
Prof Eman
Posted: 17 August 2012 23:20:53(UTC)
#43

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Just to change tack again.
Have been considering BBC News - how 'morally wrong' is it to pay cash in hand? 24 July 2012 By John Kelly BBC Nerws magazine.
http://w.w.w.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18968679
Interesting to note that the little peoples' taxation issues were raised again.
Cost to the Exchequer £2b v Tax Justice Network suggests the global elite hid at least £13tn ($21tn) in tax havens by end of 2010.
The 2b is just a drop in the ocean.
Julian Bagini "But there are degrees of wrongness and compared to the global scale of tax avoidance this is minor. It's important when you raise something as being wrong to maintain that sense of perspective."
I think there are situations, when cash in hand could be considered moral. For example, when the alternative is the likes of Wonga and slippage into a debt spiral, or in the extreme when the alternative to spending is simply not spending at all, and denying the effects of the multiplier effect, when growth is what is currently wanted.
Any views on this?
Wonder if Keynes would agree with me on this one? Taxation is a very live issue.
Prof Eman
Posted: 18 August 2012 15:27:11(UTC)
#44

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

On the anti-US feelings undercurrent.
Just been directed to an article in The Independent 13 august 2012.
www.independent.co.uk/op...ne-US-interfering-abroad
Makes interesting reading.
For were read we're.
Prof Eman
Posted: 18 August 2012 15:29:06(UTC)
#45

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

The article is - Back to the bad old days of clandestine US interfering abroad.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 18 August 2012 22:36:07(UTC)
#46

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Quite so.

There are decent Americans but by and large not in Congress and not in the Republican Party.

What baffles me is why British politicians obey orders from Uncle Sam. Cameron has not let us be dragged into a war yet. But he is collaborating with the Swedes, who used to know better, to have Julian Assange sent to America to be punished for exposing US crimes. There will be a show trial to make Stalin proud.

Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 19 August 2012 00:59:12(UTC)
#47

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Outside the Box

This is an interesting newsletter - I do not agree with all of it but it is well argued.

This week has a very good article which explains Merkel and Germany's position on the Euro Crisis. Look for the heading: Financial Markets, Politics and the New Reality
Prof Eman
Posted: 19 August 2012 16:01:12(UTC)
#48

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy
Indeed there are many decent Americans, and I have had the pleasure of meeting quite a number of them, both in the States and elsewhere including UK.
However they do not appear to have much of a say as to how they are governed.
Consider issues like-
Their role in the recession
The war in Iraq, and costs associated.
Their calls for respecting the wishes of the UN when it suits them, and ignoring them when it suits them
The Facebook loss of value, just at a time when investment should be encouraged.
Not much of an advertisement for capitalism.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 19 August 2012 18:55:51(UTC)
#49

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Prof

Facebook is an excellent advertisement for capitalism, in that a fool and his money are soon parted! The money is now in the hands of those who will put it to better use. I did not read any investment commentary that said FB was worth buying. The buyers were idiots. It is unfortunate that some of the idiots were "professional" investors, especially those running index funds. Anyone who buys index funds is an idiot.

I believe in helping the genuine mentally handicapped and insane but most investors just choose to leave their brains in bed. Caveat emptor and social Darwinism are wonderful ideas.

The Facebook covered warrant $30 put expiring 21/12/12 was up 5.8% at 87p on Friday. If you had bought it at 74p when trading opened on 23/05/12 you would have done quite well. You could have bought it at 39 on 09/07/12. I wish I had. Very speculative of course, but plenty of people bet on the Grand National which I think is far more risky.
Prof Eman
Posted: 19 August 2012 22:45:25(UTC)
#50

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy
I take your point on Facebook. However I do not fully agree with what you have said.I question whether the people who have got the money will in fact use it better, better than whom or what? Secondly a lot of first and newer investors, as opposed to professional ones were taken in by the hype, and having burnt their fingers will not return to the markets.
I have read stories of first time investors investing lifetime savings in Facebook, and now facing a huge loss.
The net effect of Facebook can only be negative for the markets.
Turning now to Germany and the Euro, I have read with interest the suggested reading. However a rational discussion on matters like living standards, is not how the bankrupt and unemployed will view matters. It is one thing to stand still on growth, and quite another to be forced into the negative, where arguments like who was more to blame abound - foreign banks or the people of Greece who enjoyed their loans for example.
It must be clear that on unemployment and order books Germany are the winners.
That is how they are viewed. With recession biting deeper and deeper the winners will be viewed with anger, as after the war Germany viewed the winners in similar light. And as we well know Keynes predicted the reaction, which was the 3rd Reich. Similarly we are now seeing a reaction to the German growing might and influence. I have on more than one occasion seen references to the 4th Reich.
The movement is gathering momentum, even in less likely places like Italy, the 3rd largest economy, which is 0.7% down in the 2nd quarter, where compared with a year earlier growth slumped by 2.5%, where people are reacting to enforced austerity. BBC Business News 7 august 2012 Italian Economy contracts 0.7% in second quarter, http at 19162772.
I wonder what Keynes would be predicting about the reaction to Germany?
Graham Barlow
Posted: 20 August 2012 11:43:54(UTC)
#51

Joined: 09/03/2009(UTC)
Posts: 203

After the "Dot -Com" bubble I was staggered at the price for Facebook shares,and even dumbfounded at the scramble to subscibe at the price of $38 a share. Who in hell's name believed all the hype surrounding the offer? I thought misguidedly that we lived in a sophisticated ,shrewd ,investment world, with analysts taking propositions apart etc. If I had been an adviser, I would have at least kept my clients away until the price had reached reality on the market. I had no idea the herd instinct was so powerful, once you have a few leading lights endorsing something they all pile in. I am coming to the conclusion ,I am a better judge of shares than I gave myself credit for. No substitute for kicking the tyres and walking away from the salesman for reducing the price. Share pushing is still out there thriving even at the top level. Be ever vigilant and dont believe everything that is put in prospectuses. This would be a classic case study of what to AVOID.
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