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A Point of view: What would Keynes do?
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 25 August 2012 16:17:43(UTC)
#62

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

This is what the Bank of England said to the Treasury Committee on the subject:
The Bank on Quantitative Easing
Prof Eman
Posted: 25 August 2012 22:24:01(UTC)
#63

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy/others
The Bank on QE makes interesting reading, but basically it tries to make a case for QE, and as such should be read in context with what is happening in the economy.
As such had a look at citywire Saturday Papers The Independent -new figs from the ONS point to the biggest slump in business investment. Investment slump hits hopes of imminent recovery.
"Besides upward revision GDP data point to underlying weakness."
"British consumers are also continuing to cut back, with spending by households sinking for the second quarter."
Spending by UK households is 6.3% below pre-recession levels-the worst performance of the G7 economies. "
Investment is still 20.4% off its previous high, the worst of all G7 nations except Italy.
Also there is reference to the Daily Telegraph-Cutting Government spending in a crisis will condemn a country to an even deeper recession, and inflict "permanent" damage on the economy the IMF warns.
My conclusion on QE is that the first round probably helped, but from then on we are into diminishing returns.
The only people who have benefited are the rich, but they sit on cash piles without spending, whist the poorer end who have a higher propensity to spend are too frightened to spend, hence the lack of investment, hence the figures we are getting above.
My conclusion is that QE is getting less and less effective in turning around our economy, with the only people benefiting being the rich. Might help explain the further rounds of QE.
However this process is self-defeating as can be seen from the worst performance of the UK in the G7 league.
There is an urgent need for QEP particularly in investment, followed by stopping of some cuts, particularly at the poorer end.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 27 August 2012 18:43:53(UTC)
#64

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Interesting article on the economic effects of political uncertainty in America. We have similar problems in the UK and Eurozone.

The real world economic effects of political uncertainty.

I read somewhere earlier today that German companies are laying off workers and going onto short time because their Southern European customers have no money. This would be hilarious if the austerity maniacs took any notice of the real world and understood cause and effect.
Prof Eman
Posted: 27 August 2012 21:57:01(UTC)
#65

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy and others
Your last post, a very interesting article. Will comment on it soon.
Over the week-end I got involved in the citywire- Beyond QE: ways to kickstart the economy by Danielle Levy Aug 20, 2012 discussion.
It is very much in line with what we have been considering.
Well worth a read if you can find time, maybe even contribute.
Prof Eman
Posted: 28 August 2012 18:07:44(UTC)
#66

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy
Have now had time to think through the political uncertainty article, and indeed there are parallels between USA and UK.
As there, it is very difficult to agree on any action. For example, the House of Lords reform, which has been on the cards for some 100 years? Has anything been agreed or likely to be agreed. Well no, the major political parties in their bickering have ensured that it will not happen.
Furthermore the performance of the economy is such that we could well have a change of Government at the next election, so Companies now driving on the right might have to be driving on the left after the election. No wonder they are slowing down, to ensure there are no major collisions coming.
Uncertainty is something that is with us, most unfortunately for everyone concerned.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 29 August 2012 01:23:08(UTC)
#67

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Prof it took me so long to scroll back through old articles on Citywire that I was too knackered to think about the article you referenced. For my own future reference, here is the URL:

Danielle Levy Article

On the subject of House of Lords reform: why fix what is not broken? If you watch the BBC Parliament Channel or read Hansard, you will see that the quality of the debate and the serious effort made by the Peers is very much better than in the Commons. Besides, do you really want a bunch of bribe taking megalomaniac sociopaths such as are is found in the US Senate?

On companies slowing down their investment because of uncertainty in the UK political outlook, that applies to smaller UK centred companies. But the big companies in the FTSE 100 do more than two thirds of their business overseas. So, much as I would like to blame ALL our ills on Cameron & Co., the evil morons preaching - and indeed practising - austerity elsewhere in the world have to shoulder some of the blame.
Prof Eman
Posted: 29 August 2012 07:50:40(UTC)
#68

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy
You make some excellent points, especially on The House of Lords.
As regards uncertainties of FTSE 100, they have the uncertainties of the UK, USA, and EU, and various political factors as in the Middle East etc to consider. Does not give a lot of certainty.
Prof Eman
Posted: 31 August 2012 15:05:57(UTC)
#69

Joined: 08/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 480

Jeremy
on th subject of uncertainty, and matters relating, please have alook at
BBC News Magazine-A point of view: The trouble with freedom by john Gray 24 \august 2012.
Well worth a read
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 01 September 2012 09:47:41(UTC)
#70

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Prof

Yes. It is good to see such a thoughtful argument advanced.

People do have a passion for minding other people's business.

A lot of the problems of intolerance are down to a lack of education. I do mean education and not the passing of exams. The habit of reflection is missing in most of us.

Religion and nationalism are pathological conditions that should be discouraged and never supported by the state. Because sooner or later they encourage the believers to hate the upholders of rival belief systems (or none). This manichean view leads to torture, terrorism, slavery and murder.

Which is not to deny that many religious people do good things and believe that they do them for religious reasons. Since I know many atheists and agnostics who also do good things; it seems obvious that people do good or bad things because they want to, not because of religion.

Moral philosophy should be taught in schools instead of religion. Internationalism should be promoted over chauvinism.

One of the few good things religion ever did was in the middle ages when the concepts of a Christian world discouraged wars between Christian princes. Similarly the Ummah in Islam encouraged cooperation among Muslims and originally between all peoples Constitution of Medina

But since these things were made into religious requirements, rather than rational choices, reason was soon abandoned in favour of homicidal mania.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 01 September 2012 16:52:34(UTC)
#71

Joined: 09/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,316

Book of the week: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’s 2011 splendid sortie into financial history, This Time Is Different, is getting a lot of fresh exposure after the former aired her views about the likelihood of governments trying to inflate away their national debts, and impoverishing savers as a result.
This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
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