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Sea of Red
TJL
Posted: 07 January 2022 18:30:25(UTC)

Joined: 14/03/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,630

TJL;202184 wrote:
Your reaction to 'sea of red' days (or longer periods...) define what kind of investor you really are.


I was referring more to investors who panic and sell...
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 07 January 2022 19:06:15(UTC)

Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
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I think if say CGT were to fall 20% this year, they would say so what, we are playing over 20 years. And over that time we have protected and grown money. We are not miracle workers if bonds & stocks fall together.
3 users thanked NoMoreKickingCans for this post.
King Lodos on 07/01/2022(UTC), Phil 2 on 07/01/2022(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 08/01/2022(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 07 January 2022 19:14:37(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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NoMoreKickingCans;202204 wrote:
I think if say CGT were to fall 20% this year, they would say so what, we are playing over 20 years. And over that time we have protected and grown money. We arn’r miracle workers if bond & stocks fall together.

They could say that. But is it what their shareholder's want or expect?
1 user thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
kim shillinglaw on 08/01/2022(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 07 January 2022 20:14:04(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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NoMoreKickingCans;202204 wrote:
I think if say CGT were to fall 20% this year, they would say so what, we are playing over 20 years. And over that time we have protected and grown money. We arn’r miracle workers if bond & stocks fall together.


I think the particularly good thing with their approach is, when ITs plummet (like they did in the covid blip) there really are opportunities to buy things at briefly depressed prices.

And when TIPS fall, you're able to buy guaranteed, future inflation-linked returns – and if they fall enough, you're buying them in positive yields again.

And they've got enough in cash-like assets to buy if both fall together – so in effect, a good All Weather portfolio is like a beast that gets stronger, the deeper the wounds inflicted on it .. Which is what 100% equities doesn't give you – and could be a problem for 60:40, when things move together .. Probably the best test of a strategy is how you feel during real volatility.

10 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
NoMoreKickingCans on 07/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 07/01/2022(UTC), Tim D on 07/01/2022(UTC), Nickc on 07/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 07/01/2022(UTC), Robin on 07/01/2022(UTC), Logic Prophets on 08/01/2022(UTC), Martina on 08/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 08/01/2022(UTC), ALAN P on 09/01/2022(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 08 January 2022 02:03:12(UTC)

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King Lodos;202208 wrote:
in effect, a good All Weather portfolio is like a beast that gets stronger, the deeper the wounds inflicted on it ..

A sentiment open to doubt, however many thousand times it is repeated.
Nickc
Posted: 08 January 2022 09:50:29(UTC)

Joined: 08/01/2021(UTC)
Posts: 135

Aminatidi;202179 wrote:
Nickc;202175 wrote:
Useful info.. thanks. I've been finding your posts useful. I'm certainly not viewing HVPE as safe, I might have to take a closer look at what I expect Troy Trojan / CGAR to actually do in my portfolio.


I think you have to keep in mind they're defensive/all-weather/wealth preservation/whatever we're calling them this week but they aren't miracles workers.

CGAR/Trojan and their IT counterparts have done what they say on the tin over the long term but in a week when quality growth stocks have taken a beating something that's 40% in quality growth stocks is going to take 40% of a beating too.

It sucks this week but the way I'd look at it is over the long term do you think Microsoft, Visa, Nestle and those quality compounders are going away?

I doubt it :)



thanks for your reply. yes difficult to think what these funds might hold that could have gone up this week!

Has got me thinking that maybe I should up my quota of value stocks in my portfolio for 2022. Currently RL Global Equity Select is my value leaning holding.
Harry Trout
Posted: 08 January 2022 10:13:56(UTC)

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
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TJL;202184 wrote:
Your reaction to 'sea of red' days (or longer periods...) define what kind of investor you really are.

Yes, agree with this

I've been tuning in each day to a guy who runs an excellent free pre-market (US) review on Twitter of what's moving in the market. Happy to share details if anyone is interested, it's very good.

Anyway, something he says an awful lot is "know your stocks, know your timeframe". Having watched his show regularly I get what he means by this and also appreciate how nuanced the message is. Investing being simple, but not easy and all that!

It's taken me a while to discipline myself to look at charts in the weekly timeframe but I now do it automatically. I always look at 80 weekly candles, so a timeframe of nearly 2 years. Looking at the same timeframe helps me to slow down my decision making, trade less and develop some rules.

For example, anything below the 50 week EMA is a hold, or if the thesis has changed it's a sell. Above the 50 week EMA I'm judging when to add.

It's helping me so far (until it isn't of course!)
8 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Mr GL on 08/01/2022(UTC), mdss68 on 08/01/2022(UTC), countrymum on 08/01/2022(UTC), Andy JR on 08/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 08/01/2022(UTC), TJL on 08/01/2022(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 08/01/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 10/01/2022(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 08 January 2022 16:20:09(UTC)

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,817

Bulldog Drummond;202183 wrote:
Newbie;202172 wrote:
Bulldog Drummond;202092 wrote:
'Clive of India'.

You should know better BD.
This was discussed and documented in the Oxford Union debate by a certain Dr Tharoor, not so long ago.

"Meanwhile, colonialists like Robert Clive brought their rotten boroughs in England on the proceeds of their loot in India while taking the Hindi word loot into their dictionary as well as their habits.

And the British had the gall to call him Clive of India as if he belonged to the country, when all he really did was to ensure that much of the country belonged to him"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7CW7S0zxv4

What have I said to warrant this woke nonsense? I just mentioned his wealth, gallstones and suicide. A controversial figure even in his day, it can't be disputed that he was a military genius. And arguably less rapacious than the local Indian rulers before the arrival of the British.

I attended many OU debates in my time there and they were all deeply silly, as that was the OU debating style. I am still a lifetime OU member, my card must be in a drawer somewhere.

No doubt you will have views also on Mountbatten of Burma, Montgomery of Alamein, and the Duke of Westminster.

You are beginning to show bad form BD.

A person or object is 'of' a place which is their origin or birth. Else they are given a titular reference - so William of Normandy raided England and became the 'King' of England. Clive was neither born in India and his titular reference is either 1st Baron or Governor of India (a tool reference of the EIC / Monarch). In fact after his controversial actions had led to him being recalled from India.

As a learned individual (and someone who is in compliance and therefore versed on a linked subject of Nationality, Residence, Origin etc) one would expect you to know better.

As for Woke nonsense, semantics is where we are at, not political or social viewpoints. I can only surmise that this outburst and throwing out of the term from you, is another simple means of diverting away from the issue, which seems to be your standard defence mechanism every time someone questions or challenges you, even if it is to seek further clarification.

Now if you are in the view of promoting a notion, despite being given logical evidence to the contrary at the very prestigious institution where such evidence was carried put and forward and, one where you had learned your views and take every opportunity to show your academic and knowledgeable prowess with quotes and references, then there must be an irony in there somewhere.
kim shillinglaw
Posted: 08 January 2022 19:37:09(UTC)

Joined: 26/04/2021(UTC)
Posts: 306

Harry Trout;202243 wrote:
TJL;202184 wrote:
Your reaction to 'sea of red' days (or longer periods...) define what kind of investor you really are.

Yes, agree with this

I've been tuning in each day to a guy who runs an excellent free pre-market (US) review on Twitter of what's moving in the market. Happy to share details if anyone is interested, it's very good.

Anyway, something he says an awful lot is "know your stocks, know your timeframe". Having watched his show regularly I get what he means by this and also appreciate how nuanced the message is. Investing being simple, but not easy and all that!

It's taken me a while to discipline myself to look at charts in the weekly timeframe but I now do it automatically. I always look at 80 weekly candles, so a timeframe of nearly 2 years. Looking at the same timeframe helps me to slow down my decision making, trade less and develop some rules.

For example, anything below the 50 week EMA is a hold, or if the thesis has changed it's a sell. Above the 50 week EMA I'm judging when to add.

It's helping me so far (until it isn't of course!)



Yes, would be appreciated if you didn't mind posting a link to your twitter chap.
Harry Trout
Posted: 09 January 2022 09:05:25(UTC)

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
kim shillinglaw;202305 wrote:

Yes, would be appreciated if you didn't mind posting a link to your twitter chap.

Hi Kim, no problem, his name is Scott Redler and his Twitter handle is @RedDogT3, he is a professional trader who set up a free 15 minute show during the pandemic to connect everyone. It plays on Twitter at 11.30 GMT Monday to Thursday.

I started watching it when I was considering having a go at day trading but then realised that at the moment I just want to see if a better understanding of Technical Analysis could help my investing approach.

He operates in the daily timeframe and uses moving averages in the main. He mentions from time to time that he has been influenced by William O'Neill and is clearly a momentum trader.

I've applied his technique to the weekly timeframe and I am liking it so far. He specialises in tech stocks but has been dabbling in crypto and has had a great 12 months with some of the new up and coming crypto names.

The show is free, as are his e-books. There is a fee paying service but this is for day trading so I'm not looking at that. For disclosure I have no connection to Scott.

If you try it and find it helpful it would be good to know, or anyone else for that matter

Cheers

Harry
2 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
countrymum on 09/01/2022(UTC), mapple on 10/01/2022(UTC)
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