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King Lodos
Posted: 22 January 2022 01:47:06(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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I'd say inflation involves so many moving parts feeding back into each other, our inability to forecast it is probably an example of chaos theory.

So there'll be a lot of repositioning going on at the moment – and the more balanced you were going into this, the less painful it's been so far

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John Strom III on 22/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 23/01/2022(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 22 January 2022 07:52:00(UTC)

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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King Lodos;204446 wrote:
I'd say inflation involves so many moving parts feeding back into each other, our inability to forecast it is probably an example of chaos theory.

So there'll be a lot of repositioning going on at the moment – and the more balanced you were going into this, the less painful it's been so far



VUSA down 5.7% over 30
XDEW - the equal weight version down 1.9% over 30 days.
JAM down 3.87 US Style agnostic
JUSC down 10.5% - US Small/Mid cap style agnostic
BASC down 11.15% - US Small/Mid more quality focused
VWRL down 2.81
ATT down 20.63%
HSBA +14%
Aviva +6.3
ASEI + 1%
BGEU -11.52

I see a rotation and a small drop overall but some pretty vicious drops in some areas. Not sure the sky is falling in just yet :)

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NoMoreKickingCans on 22/01/2022(UTC), Aminatidi on 22/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 22/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 23/01/2022(UTC), Phil 2 on 23/01/2022(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 22 January 2022 08:56:13(UTC)

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MarkSp;204450 wrote:
King Lodos;204446 wrote:
I'd say inflation involves so many moving parts feeding back into each other, our inability to forecast it is probably an example of chaos theory.

So there'll be a lot of repositioning going on at the moment – and the more balanced you were going into this, the less painful it's been so far




I see a rotation and a small drop overall but some pretty vicious drops in some areas. Not sure the sky is falling in just yet :)



Nothing to see so far....

VWRL on 16th Nov was 93 it is currently 88 - just a 5.4% fall in just over 2 months

The COVID crash was vicious... and it lasted from 21 feb to 23 march 73p o 56p a 23% fall in one month

VWRL went from 68 on the 28/8/18 to 58 on the 24th dec. a 15% fall over 4 months

VWRL went form 49 on 13/4/15 to 40.25 on 24/8/15 a 22% fall over 4 months (it then rallied to 45.5 in Dec 2015 and then fall again to 40.25 in feb 2016)

VWRL went from 42.26 on 22/5/13 to 37 on 24/6/13 a 12.5% fall over one month
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smg8
Posted: 22 January 2022 09:00:27(UTC)

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It still feels like a shake out and rerating of high PE ratio stocks that have benefitted from 10 years of multiple expansion (according to my totally novice interpretation of events!).

My value leaning holding is down less than the index, whilst a quick scan of Trustnet shows the cheaper the fund (in PE ratio terms) the better it has done this year including many that are 10-15% ahead of the index.

Zidane (great username) posted this in the Blue Whale thread;

P/S Ratio Historical Data

2017 2022
Microsoft 4.85 13
Adobe 8.86 15.57
Alphabet 6.39 8.11
ASML 6.07 13.74
Atlassian 9.59 32.67
Intuit 6.12 14.52
Mastercard 10.27 20.39
Nvidia 9.94 25.16
Veeva 11.19 20.5

Those multiples can't just keep expanding forever, a correction to them was surely long overdue....

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Phil 2 on 23/01/2022(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 January 2022 09:24:49(UTC)

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laang lee on 22/01/2022(UTC), cliff aner on 23/01/2022(UTC)
Mostly Rational
Posted: 22 January 2022 14:27:56(UTC)

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I'm kicking myself for waiting for just a little more profit before reducing my exposure to the S&P 500 in the new year as planned, but I don't think this is the prelude to the big one. If people really thought the party was over, I would have thought we'd be seeing unprecedented drops in the most speculative assets and in particular crypto where 50% is just business as usual. It doesn't seem like the mood's going to turn without new information but there will be some of that next week for better or worse, and maybe some clarity is enough for a relief rally?
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Fig Lee on 22/01/2022(UTC)
MikeT
Posted: 22 January 2022 14:30:38(UTC)

Joined: 12/02/2017(UTC)
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I hope the poor guy who was being ‘encouraged’ to buy 3 x leveraged long Nasdaq is ok.
6 users thanked MikeT for this post.
Bulldog Drummond on 22/01/2022(UTC), DIY Investing on 22/01/2022(UTC), smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC), J-san on 22/01/2022(UTC), King Lodos on 22/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 23/01/2022(UTC)
mark tman
Posted: 22 January 2022 20:28:37(UTC)

Joined: 18/05/2017(UTC)
Posts: 31

what is everyone's thoughts at the moment, does this have a lot further to go or is just another 2020 style blip?

I see a popular technical analyst say the S&P cost drop more than 50 percent from here
Tsm Myth
Posted: 22 January 2022 20:59:16(UTC)

Joined: 07/04/2020(UTC)
Posts: 11

My guess is it will drop until around March
King Lodos
Posted: 22 January 2022 21:20:15(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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It's all just a wait-and-see until we get a better idea of where rates are going (which is a wait and see with inflation).

The mood of the market will dictate whether we're back to buying the dip already, or we go to a +20% correction – but either way, if it is a prolonged bear market, you get a huge amount of this kind of volatility .. up and down, relief rallies and further falls.

What the market does in the short-term is basically noise – it's where inflation is over the coming months that'll actually dictate where markets are headed .. Probably not worth taking a stab at it – if something's really unknowable, the best you can do is be balanced for all outcomes .. Or do nothing – if you're not a trend follower or macro forecaster, you just accept that markets go through periods of turmoil, and most ppl lose money trying to react to these periods

2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Guest on 23/01/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 23/01/2022(UTC)
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