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ravedeath
Posted: 13 March 2025 12:02:06(UTC)
#3640

Joined: 10/01/2024(UTC)
Posts: 236
Yes, the suggestion was a scaling up of "defence" but we'll see!

https://citywire.com/inv...ecession-fears/a2451175

https://www.winterflood....20Insight%20-%20JGGI%20(Sep24).pdf
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ravedeath
Posted: 13 March 2025 12:08:48(UTC)
#3637

Joined: 10/01/2024(UTC)
Posts: 236
Thrugelmir;337454 wrote:
ravedeath;337444 wrote:

There had been a suggestion that JGGI had moved more defensive in anticipation of volatility - maybe this will play out still. But there does seem to have been some knee-jerk selling here (seen in these forums).



Valuations of some US companies were extremely high. I needed to release capital as had decided to invest in other opportunties (e.g. FGEN) . JGGI just happened to be the IT that I sold. Simple as that.

JGGI remains on my watchlist. At some point in the future may well reinvest. Holding contrarian views is often not easy but rewarding in the medium to longer term. Shifts in sentiment occur far earlier than is often realised.


Thanks, it is tricky to understand what you hold as I think it has been some time since you posted a portfolio as such - and that would be interesting to see - but recognise you sold JGGI in less of a knee-jerk after the event way, which is what I'm getting at. For similar reasons I sold my global tracker some weeks back for a new position in HSBC Global Balanced and to increase Trojan.
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1 user thanked ravedeath for this post.
Sheerman on 13/03/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 13 March 2025 12:44:22(UTC)
#3641

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 4,057

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JGGI is on my watchlist too. I've never owned it as it always seemed to be on a small premium when I checked, but it's on a discount now. Looks like a steady performer over the longer term.

I wonder if SMT might benefit from its relatively underweight exposure to the US? I trimmed it a few weeks ago to bank some gains, and will look to re-buy when the new ISA allowance kicks in. (On that topic, good to hear confirmation from the government that no changes to ISAs are planned until at least the autumn.)

Looking at my pf in detail, it really isn't the US exposure that has done the most damage, it's the knock-on effects on UK small caps and PE, driven by market sentiment IMO, not any logical assessment of the impact of tariffs. The issues specific to the UK, such as the impending NI hike, and a general lack of confidence, which all predated the current turmoil are still in play.
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3 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Guest on 13/03/2025(UTC), Ramondo on 13/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 14/03/2025(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 13 March 2025 13:06:52(UTC)
#3643

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 395

Thanks: 465 times
Was thanked: 634 time(s) in 265 post(s)
The concerns about valuations in the US , especially the MAG7 , continue to influence investors elsewhere and posters on this forum . Recent events have slightly changed the landscape but will it be enough to convince overweight US portfolios. ? Still overvalued in comparison with the rest of the world but who would bet against it ? We can only wait and see.

The damage to the SP 500 isn't that much considering the influence of tech. Others have taken up the slack..



https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=15

UK ETF SP 20 compared to SP 500

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=15

Latest forward valuations of MAG7 are heading towards the main market valuations. Is a forward P/E of around 25 expensive for growth tech ?



https://pbs.twimg.com/me...rmat=jpg&name=small

Some of the forecasts here are impressive . FIG 6 is falling rapidly. Data is from last weekend.

https://yardeni.com/charts/sp-500-megacap-8/
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3 users thanked Wave Action for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 13/03/2025(UTC), Sara G on 13/03/2025(UTC), Dexi on 13/03/2025(UTC)
NPH
Posted: 13 March 2025 13:09:58(UTC)
#3642

Joined: 26/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 83

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Sara G;337463 wrote:
JGGI is on my watchlist too. I've never owned it as it always seemed to be on a small premium when I checked, but it's on a discount now. Looks like a steady performer over the longer term.

I wonder if SMT might benefit from its relatively underweight exposure to the US? I trimmed it a few weeks ago to bank some gains, and will look to re-buy when the new ISA allowance kicks in. (On that topic, good to hear confirmation from the government that no changes to ISAs are planned until at least the autumn.)

Looking at my pf in detail, it really isn't the US exposure that has done the most damage, it's the knock-on effects on UK small caps and PE, driven by market sentiment IMO, not any logical assessment of the impact of tariffs. The issues specific to the UK, such as the impending NI hike, and a general lack of confidence, which all predated the current turmoil are still in play.


Finally gave up on my UK small caps a few weeks ago after 3 years of false dawns. Just don't see how the UK economy is going to improve them.
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2 users thanked NPH for this post.
Sara G on 13/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 13/03/2025(UTC)
Jesse M
Posted: 13 March 2025 14:59:58(UTC)
#3626

Joined: 30/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 1,473

Thanks: 10276 times
Was thanked: 3798 time(s) in 1127 post(s)
smg8;337432 wrote:


Ah, brings back memories of the forum herd portfolio thread.
.


Just for a laugh this was the forum herd portfolio voted on around 2+ years ago.
Just shows how forum favourites have fallen out of view/discussions.
Unfortunately I don't have time to work out how it would have gone.


HERD PORTFOLIO
Top Ten based on proportionate votes of these funds only.

ATTACK 38.7%
SMT @ 17.6%
TRGF @ 8.6%
BGPC @ 6.9%
PHI @ 5.6%

MIDFIELD 37.8%
HVPE @ 12.9%
Fundsmith @ 11.6%
Global Tracker @ 7.7%
Monks @ 5.6%

DEFENCE 23.6%
CGT/CGAR @ 15.0%
PNL/Trojan @ 8.6%

Unfortunately, the Goalie and Subs did not get enough votes so hopefully the other team doesn't try to score.
It is just a bit of fun to see forum sentiment - a snapshot in time.
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4 users thanked Jesse M for this post.
smg8 on 13/03/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 13/03/2025(UTC), Newbie on 13/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 14/03/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 13 March 2025 15:21:53(UTC)
#3629

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,821

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Jesse M;337477 wrote:
smg8;337432 wrote:


Ah, brings back memories of the forum herd portfolio thread.
.


Just for a laugh this was the forum herd portfolio voted on around 2+ years ago.
Just shows how forum favourites have fallen out of view/discussions.
Unfortunately I don't have time to work out how it would have gone.


HERD PORTFOLIO
Top Ten based on proportionate votes of these funds only.

ATTACK 38.7%
SMT @ 17.6%
TRGF @ 8.6%
BGPC @ 6.9%
PHI @ 5.6%

MIDFIELD 37.8%
HVPE @ 12.9%
Fundsmith @ 11.6%
Global Tracker @ 7.7%
Monks @ 5.6%

DEFENCE 23.6%
CGT/CGAR @ 15.0%
PNL/Trojan @ 8.6%

Unfortunately, the Goalie and Subs did not get enough votes so hopefully the other team doesn't try to score.
It is just a bit of fun to see forum sentiment - a snapshot in time.

Apart from TRGF, BGPC, Monks some of the all-weather crap (which I had none at that time), I still have the rest
2 Yr - Results
SMT - 41% (largest holding at time)
HVPE - 29% (sold early in year - now re-entering)
Global Tracker - 28%
PHI - minus 5% (boo)

So is that a really bad return in 2 years.
As I alluded to in another post SMT is back on top over year and positive across all 5 years
1yr - 21%
2yr - 41%
3yr 7%
5 - 87%

That is on the basis it was left alone - but if and a big if, you were brave enough to add to it, on dips I don't think you would have done too badly.

3i which rocketed took pole position and has been trimmed a bit and SMT is heading toward being attractive again especially with low US exposure

Happy hunting !
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1 user thanked Newbie for this post.
Jay P on 13/03/2025(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 13 March 2025 16:40:02(UTC)
#3627

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
Posts: 3,377

Thanks: 5720 times
Was thanked: 13360 time(s) in 2762 post(s)
Jesse M;337477 wrote:
smg8;337432 wrote:


Ah, brings back memories of the forum herd portfolio thread.
.


Just for a laugh this was the forum herd portfolio voted on around 2+ years ago.
Just shows how forum favourites have fallen out of view/discussions.
Unfortunately I don't have time to work out how it would have gone.


HERD PORTFOLIO
Top Ten based on proportionate votes of these funds only.

ATTACK 38.7%
SMT @ 17.6%
TRGF @ 8.6%
BGPC @ 6.9%
PHI @ 5.6%

MIDFIELD 37.8%
HVPE @ 12.9%
Fundsmith @ 11.6%
Global Tracker @ 7.7%
Monks @ 5.6%

DEFENCE 23.6%
CGT/CGAR @ 15.0%
PNL/Trojan @ 8.6%

Unfortunately, the Goalie and Subs did not get enough votes so hopefully the other team doesn't try to score.
It is just a bit of fun to see forum sentiment - a snapshot in time.


What’s fascinating here is how some funds that once dominated conversations now receive little to no mention, while others that seemed promising in the past now look like poor choices in hindsight.

Take BG Positive Change, for instance. It’s easy to look back and think, “what kind of idiot would buy that?” when it's delivered a mere 1.2% per annum over three years. Yet, at the time, it appeared to be a solid option for a growth-focused investor.

This highlights the danger of chasing top performers from x period. They may seem like genius picks today, and if the trend continues, they’ll look brilliant in another three years. However, we feed ourselves a narrative around why the fund that is top of the performance table has done well, and pretend it isn't the performance that has attracted us, and convince ourselves that if it underperformed in future we'd buy more and top up on the dips.

But the reality, and what we see people doing time and again, tells a different story.
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6 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Sheerman on 13/03/2025(UTC), Strauss on 13/03/2025(UTC), Sara G on 13/03/2025(UTC), Mr Bean on 13/03/2025(UTC), Jesse M on 13/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 14/03/2025(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 13 March 2025 16:55:24(UTC)
#3644

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,204

Thanks: 285 times
Was thanked: 5857 time(s) in 1739 post(s)
Wisdom Tree Efficient Core 90:60 on the S&P500.(WTEF)

Well it is supposed to be more stable that VUSA etc because it has 60% bonds
maybe this is "the wrong sort of sell-off". It has been a bit better c 0,17% less of a drop in the last three weeks so......they are right but not right enough for me.

JEGP has been a lot more solid. A lesson learned.

Should have sold the lot and piled in to REITS !!
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1 user thanked MarkSp for this post.
Sheerman on 13/03/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 13 March 2025 17:05:46(UTC)
#3645

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 4,057

Thanks: 13123 times
Was thanked: 16897 time(s) in 3524 post(s)
Regarding funds that are most talked about... I wonder if a distorted impression is created in some cases, whereby a fashionable fund might get talked about more because posters are less likely to get negative comments in reply, and it becomes self perpetuating. By its very nature, a Forum such as this doesn't seem conducive to Contrarianism. It may also be true that the amount of discussion doesn't align with the size of people's holdings. Many people here are mostly in trackers, and most hold cash or other assets, so the actual exposure to an over/underperforming fund may be less than it seems.

As always there is a big difference between a fund's performance and that of an investor. SMT has been one of my most profitable holdings, for example, but since it fell out of favour, anyone looking at some of the comments on here would think that it was a total basket case.
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5 users thanked Sara G for this post.
NPH on 13/03/2025(UTC), smg8 on 13/03/2025(UTC), Mostly Retired on 14/03/2025(UTC), Jim Thompson on 14/03/2025(UTC), mcminvest on 14/03/2025(UTC)
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