Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

Fundsmith Performance
Bvlp
Posted: 03 February 2022 13:26:48(UTC)

Joined: 17/05/2018(UTC)
Posts: 172

Thanks: 99 times
Was thanked: 649 time(s) in 136 post(s)
Kraftwerk;207217 wrote:
JayW;207185 wrote:
I hope no one thought large cap "quality stocks" couldn't fluctuate wildly after earnings came in a few percentage points below expectations.

I note both PayPal and Facebook have cited inflation as major cause of their disappointments.


The numbers are staggering.

A 20% fall in FB represents a $200bn market cap wipeout, among the largest in history. That would wipe out 50% (!) of Europe's most valuable company.

Some facts about the earnings,
- Quarterly revenue grew by almost 20%
- Gross margin of ... drum roll ... 81% (!)
- EBIT grew 43%
- Net income grew 31%
- EPS fell 5%
- Shares fall in after hours 20%

This is because FB generated 'only' $10.2bn in profit in the quarter!

After this fall, the company will trade at a rather nominal P/E multiple of 18x. And they say markets are efficient!

I understand the macro narrative is all about inflation and left-for-dead banks, telcos and energy companies. But this company is still a virtual ATM machine.

PS - I have no direct holdings in FB, and only hold it via FS and an index tracker.



Great post but I suspect the rate of the decline has something to do with how potentially fickle businesses like Facebook actually are. Unlike more traditional companies such as Walmart, J&J, Lockheed Martin etc. the likelihood of the business becoming irrelevant are much higher. Once the steady stream of users leaving the platforms starts happening it could build like a snowball and very quickly there is no business. Really not that difficult to see such a scenario playing out, imagine what it would take for businesses such as Walmart, J&J and Lockheed Martin to disappear into obscurity as rapidly as a company like Facebook.
3 users thanked Bvlp for this post.
King Lodos on 03/02/2022(UTC), Kraftwerk on 03/02/2022(UTC), J-san on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Dan L
Posted: 03 February 2022 13:57:44(UTC)

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

Thanks: 1097 times
Was thanked: 1283 time(s) in 552 post(s)
The Meta version of the metaverse has been around for several years now under another guise and it makes sense, at least to me, to push down that route. For example it would be a much better advert to see yourself in some new clothes rather than see a model in them. If done correctly the advertising and instant shopping element could be a huge money maker. Obviously this would all be sold under the label of a 'fun place to hang out and socialise'.

Meta have the data, they have the equipment (Oculus) and they have the existing users to make this work. They certainly know how to make money from it.
1 user thanked Dan L for this post.
Harland Kearney on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Blunt Instrument
Posted: 03 February 2022 14:15:54(UTC)

Joined: 21/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 354

Thanks: 424 times
Was thanked: 1781 time(s) in 326 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;207249 wrote:
Sometimes I test my own understanding of an investment case by taking a pen and paper and writing a few sentences on what a company or product is actually "about".

When it come to the "metaverse" I literally have no idea what it actually is....I could not write it down.


A good discipline I think.

As the world becomes ever more technologically advanced - particularly so in the rapidly evolving age of software - more of the layers of the "stack" of things we use and rely on involve abstract concepts; things which initially might seem like a load of technobabble can soon become just another everyday tool we all use, rely on and just shrug our shoulders about. And the younger you are, the faster you usually accept and adapt to all this increasingly abstract stuff that appears. Sometimes, it's only when you come across some real old duffer like my relative who cannot use even an ATM, never mind a PC, the internet or a smartphone that you realise how quickly things have and can change...

I think the metaverse is just the "in vogue" shorthand label being applied to a range of digital platforms and environments being developed through which outfits like FB amongst others are hoping to deliver a whole bunch of services & entertainment (esp. entertainment, perhaps) to us all in the future. These platforms seem to have an emphasis on using aspects of the physical world to help visualise things via 3D immersive environments, VR, avatars etc. plus gamification.

To me, some of this appears like a contemporary attempt to return to the former walled-gardens of AOL, Prodigy and CompuServe before they lost out to the WWW as the internet platform of choice. Rich pickings if you could become the gatekeeper of such a place, monetise its activity, displace others in the transition to it, or create new services and means for businesses and consumers inhabiting the platform to pay you one way or another.

It might all be total bollocks of course, or maybe in 10 years we may all regularly be using aspects of this stuff without thinking it's a big deal, just as we do now with smartphones which are more commonplace than flushing toilets or refrigerators, something few of us could probably have imagined.

Who knows? The lesson is probably to retain an open mind.

Joe Soap's point above about legacy incumbents not commonly shaping the future is very valid: if it does all happen, whatever "it" turns out to be, who'll actually be the biggest winners?
1 user thanked Blunt Instrument for this post.
Tim D on 03/02/2022(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 03 February 2022 14:33:26(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 11,046

Thanks: 6166 times
Was thanked: 30411 time(s) in 8333 post(s)
Dan L;207269 wrote:
The Meta version of the metaverse has been around for several years now under another guise and it makes sense, at least to me, to push down that route. For example it would be a much better advert to see yourself in some new clothes rather than see a model in them. If done correctly the advertising and instant shopping element could be a huge money maker. Obviously this would all be sold under the label of a 'fun place to hang out and socialise'.

Meta have the data, they have the equipment (Oculus) and they have the existing users to make this work. They certainly know how to make money from it.


I was asking some Gen Z'ers about Playstation VR the other week .. Consensus seems to be that feelings of nausea limit how long you want to use it.

So rather than people escaping into VR games for days, it still seems to be something akin to a party game, or something for brief novelty experiences (which is how VR apps generally are).

So I don't think the technology's there .. High-end headsets are getting better, but cost more than new cars – and still don't strike me as good enough for mass adoption .. These businesses (imo) are no good at creating buzzes and shaping what people do .. I think they're all where they are through lucky timing and acquisitions .. Google tried it with Google Plus .. As for a non-VR metaverse, that's just Habbo (2000) or Second Life, and I don't think they're remotely on trend now .. Skeptical .. They're 25 years too early

2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Dan L on 03/02/2022(UTC), Tim D on 03/02/2022(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 03 February 2022 15:42:45(UTC)

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
Posts: 3,368

Thanks: 5709 times
Was thanked: 13292 time(s) in 2753 post(s)
Interesting ref Alphabet.

When TS bought Amazon that was one of the factors that prompted my exit from FS as it feels as if the fund has run out of interesting ideas. Adding Alphabet reinforces that for me personally, though I accept my knowledge is next to zero versus Mr Smith.

The more the fund looks like the index the more it will perform like the index. This would make me stop and think on 2 fronts - will it have the defensive characteristics it used to have as it introduces more tech in exchange for holdings in other sectors? And will it be able to generate alpha beyond the index if it looks more like the index? Essentially the active share must be getting reduced with these latest purchases.....

I also hate to doff a cap to Bulldog Drummond but his preferred L&G Global 100 index Trust is now tearing away from FS having returned 16% more over 3 years and with a lower drawdown in 2022.

Are any holders remotely concerned by the amount of trading of late? There was Amazon, now Alphabet, I think several exits (I recall a healthcare one, IHG, Sage perhaps and something else). Then the position they started building and changed their mind and sold. And the latest factsheet says they are building another 2 x new positions as well. This seems quite a big deviation from the usual buy and hold.
3 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Guest on 03/02/2022(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 03/02/2022(UTC), Ben's dad on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Dan L
Posted: 03 February 2022 15:46:10(UTC)

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

Thanks: 1097 times
Was thanked: 1283 time(s) in 552 post(s)
King Lodos;207277 wrote:
Dan L;207269 wrote:
The Meta version of the metaverse has been around for several years now under another guise and it makes sense, at least to me, to push down that route. For example it would be a much better advert to see yourself in some new clothes rather than see a model in them. If done correctly the advertising and instant shopping element could be a huge money maker. Obviously this would all be sold under the label of a 'fun place to hang out and socialise'.

Meta have the data, they have the equipment (Oculus) and they have the existing users to make this work. They certainly know how to make money from it.


I was asking some Gen Z'ers about Playstation VR the other week .. Consensus seems to be that feelings of nausea limit how long you want to use it.

So rather than people escaping into VR games for days, it still seems to be something akin to a party game, or something for brief novelty experiences (which is how VR apps generally are).

So I don't think the technology's there .. High-end headsets are getting better, but cost more than new cars – and still don't strike me as good enough for mass adoption .. These businesses (imo) are no good at creating buzzes and shaping what people do .. I think they're all where they are through lucky timing and acquisitions .. Google tried it with Google Plus .. As for a non-VR metaverse, that's just Habbo (2000) or Second Life, and I don't think they're remotely on trend now .. Skeptical .. They're 25 years too early



Yes likely many years away before/if this becomes popular. I think the short duration VR experience is much closer and think that the metaverse elements that Microsoft is adding to Teams for training and meetings might be a better experience. VR for training is becoming reasonably standard when it come to learning about or practicing in a physical environment that are otherwise hard to access (planes, crime scenes, machinery etc). I can see the added value even in a classroom type VR experience with something as mundane as a shared whiteboard.

I can see a VR dressing room where you get to try on clothes or a VR holiday brochure where you get to see your hotel before booking. But all day, every day seems a long way off and as you said Second Life never really took off back in the day.
1 user thanked Dan L for this post.
King Lodos on 03/02/2022(UTC)
Dan L
Posted: 03 February 2022 15:55:17(UTC)

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

Thanks: 1097 times
Was thanked: 1283 time(s) in 552 post(s)
smg8;207293 wrote:


Are any holders remotely concerned by the amount of trading of late? There was Amazon, now Alphabet, I think several exits (I recall a healthcare one, IHG, Sage perhaps and something else). Then the position they started building and changed their mind and sold. And the latest factsheet says they are building another 2 x new positions as well. This seems quite a big deviation from the usual buy and hold.


Not really - there have previously been short bursts of activity amongst the months of absolutely nothing happening. Last year there were four sales and one purchase which leaves room for a couple more. Transaction fees were still low at 0.01%

It still has a 50% allocation to traditionally defensive sectors (staples and healthcare) which is what makes it different from the index for me
3 users thanked Dan L for this post.
smg8 on 03/02/2022(UTC), Harland Kearney on 03/02/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 03/02/2022(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 03 February 2022 16:17:39(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 11,046

Thanks: 6166 times
Was thanked: 30411 time(s) in 8333 post(s)
Dan L;207294 wrote:
King Lodos;207277 wrote:
Dan L;207269 wrote:
The Meta version of the metaverse has been around for several years now under another guise and it makes sense, at least to me, to push down that route. For example it would be a much better advert to see yourself in some new clothes rather than see a model in them. If done correctly the advertising and instant shopping element could be a huge money maker. Obviously this would all be sold under the label of a 'fun place to hang out and socialise'.

Meta have the data, they have the equipment (Oculus) and they have the existing users to make this work. They certainly know how to make money from it.


I was asking some Gen Z'ers about Playstation VR the other week .. Consensus seems to be that feelings of nausea limit how long you want to use it.

So rather than people escaping into VR games for days, it still seems to be something akin to a party game, or something for brief novelty experiences (which is how VR apps generally are).

So I don't think the technology's there .. High-end headsets are getting better, but cost more than new cars – and still don't strike me as good enough for mass adoption .. These businesses (imo) are no good at creating buzzes and shaping what people do .. I think they're all where they are through lucky timing and acquisitions .. Google tried it with Google Plus .. As for a non-VR metaverse, that's just Habbo (2000) or Second Life, and I don't think they're remotely on trend now .. Skeptical .. They're 25 years too early



Yes likely many years away before/if this becomes popular. I think the short duration VR experience is much closer and think that the metaverse elements that Microsoft is adding to Teams for training and meetings might be a better experience. VR for training is becoming reasonably standard when it come to learning about or practicing in a physical environment that are otherwise hard to access (planes, crime scenes, machinery etc). I can see the added value even in a classroom type VR experience with something as mundane as a shared whiteboard.

I can see a VR dressing room where you get to try on clothes or a VR holiday brochure where you get to see your hotel before booking. But all day, every day seems a long way off and as you said Second Life never really took off back in the day.


The other thing is there's always a bold, utopian, Silicon Valley promotional video angle to this stuff .. But in practice, this is what you'll get – VR Chat, Ugandan Knuckles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eix7fLsS058

Facebook can do whatever they want with the window dressing, but soon as you put real people in it, it'll be chaos .. And if they're planning life-like avatars and realism, it'll be 98% porn and cam girls, and probably 2% Nazis .. I'm almost 100% certain that when/if VR takes off, socially, it'll be a tiny startup, or an open source blockchain project.


2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 03/02/2022(UTC), Simon Martin on 03/02/2022(UTC)
J-san
Posted: 03 February 2022 17:05:55(UTC)

Joined: 16/04/2013(UTC)
Posts: 462

Thanks: 3117 times
Was thanked: 874 time(s) in 333 post(s)
Quote:
For example it would be a much better advert to see yourself in some new clothes rather than see a model in them.


oh I don't know, I think I'd rather see the models :)
2 users thanked J-san for this post.
Guest on 03/02/2022(UTC), Bulldog Drummond on 04/02/2022(UTC)
Tom Bards
Posted: 03 February 2022 17:22:25(UTC)

Joined: 28/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 302

Thanks: 16 times
Was thanked: 523 time(s) in 211 post(s)
Looks like Amazon is struggling today also -6%. And that is before earnings.
1 user thanked Tom Bards for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 03/02/2022(UTC)
195 Pages«Previous page112113114115116Next page»
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets