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Raj K
Posted: 09 January 2025 10:52:13(UTC)
#1961

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Rob B;330533 wrote:
Undoubtedly, Fundsmith has had a stellar run over the last decade and a half. Riding on the back of QE and low stock market prices / valuations has certainly helped. It's rewarded its early investors handsomely.

Sadly, past performance is now irrelevant. Focus should be on whether it can rinse and repeat. Law of averages suggests it may struggle.

The c.1% fee is all well and good when the going is firm. Will be interesting to see performance over the next 5 years when the going may well be soft to heavy.

As always, no slight on any fund.



You would need to know the starting free cash flow yield and what Smith believes is the growth of those free cash flow earnings to determine what the likely returns are.... ultimately share prices follow earnings.... if you think Smith & Robbins have gone bonkers and don't know how to analyse businesses and select companies that have moats, high return on capital employed, good margins etc then that is another story...they have had quite a bit of turnover in recent years and made some mistakes like selling out of Amazon just becuase the CEO said he wanted to do groceries instead of waiting to see what the reality was.
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Rookie Investor on 09/01/2025(UTC), Moose on 09/01/2025(UTC)
Rob B
Posted: 09 January 2025 11:09:11(UTC)
#1964

Joined: 07/10/2018(UTC)
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Raj K;330537 wrote:
You would need to know the starting free cash flow yield and what Smith believes is the growth of those free cash flow earnings to determine what the likely returns are.... ultimately share prices follow earnings.... if you think Smith & Robbins have gone bonkers and don't know how to analyse businesses and select companies that have moats, high return on capital employed, good margins etc then that is another story...they have had quite a bit of turnover in recent years and made some mistakes like selling out of Amazon just becuase the CEO said he wanted to do groceries instead of waiting to see what the reality was.

Agreed and no I don't think they've gone bonkers. ROCE and CROCI and all that. Just think it's going to get harder going forward. That's all.
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Raj K on 09/01/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 09 January 2025 11:11:47(UTC)
#1962

Joined: 31/07/2023(UTC)
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Raj K;330537 wrote:
Rob B;330533 wrote:
Undoubtedly, Fundsmith has had a stellar run over the last decade and a half. Riding on the back of QE and low stock market prices / valuations has certainly helped. It's rewarded its early investors handsomely.

Sadly, past performance is now irrelevant. Focus should be on whether it can rinse and repeat. Law of averages suggests it may struggle.

The c.1% fee is all well and good when the going is firm. Will be interesting to see performance over the next 5 years when the going may well be soft to heavy.

As always, no slight on any fund.



You would need to know the starting free cash flow yield and what Smith believes is the growth of those free cash flow earnings to determine what the likely returns are.... ultimately share prices follow earnings.... if you think Smith & Robbins have gone bonkers and don't know how to analyse businesses and select companies that have moats, high return on capital employed, good margins etc then that is another story...they have had quite a bit of turnover in recent years and made some mistakes like selling out of Amazon just becuase the CEO said he wanted to do groceries instead of waiting to see what the reality was.

Agreed. I had a terrific return from FS. But the last 4 or 5 years his stock selection hasn't been very good at all. No better than 50:50 I think. Hard to justify his 1% these days, where before it wasn't much of an issue. It's never going to be the worst place in the world to invest. But I prefer LGGG these days.
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Big boy on 09/01/2025(UTC), MarkSp on 18/01/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 09 January 2025 11:18:23(UTC)
#1965

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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Rob B;330538 wrote:
Raj K;330537 wrote:
You would need to know the starting free cash flow yield and what Smith believes is the growth of those free cash flow earnings to determine what the likely returns are.... ultimately share prices follow earnings.... if you think Smith & Robbins have gone bonkers and don't know how to analyse businesses and select companies that have moats, high return on capital employed, good margins etc then that is another story...they have had quite a bit of turnover in recent years and made some mistakes like selling out of Amazon just becuase the CEO said he wanted to do groceries instead of waiting to see what the reality was.

Agreed and no I don't think they've gone bonkers. ROCE and CROCI and all that. Just think it's going to get harder going forward. That's all.


Why do you think its going to get harder?

If anything I reckon FS portfolio is well positioned going forward given the high valuations we have seen in general markets; I suspect being concerned about valuations is going to matter.

FS holdings do not appear that expensive vs. the market.
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Thrugelmir on 09/01/2025(UTC), Moose on 09/01/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 09 January 2025 11:26:01(UTC)
#1966

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317
Rookie Investor;330540 wrote:
Rob B;330538 wrote:
Raj K;330537 wrote:
You would need to know the starting free cash flow yield and what Smith believes is the growth of those free cash flow earnings to determine what the likely returns are.... ultimately share prices follow earnings.... if you think Smith & Robbins have gone bonkers and don't know how to analyse businesses and select companies that have moats, high return on capital employed, good margins etc then that is another story...they have had quite a bit of turnover in recent years and made some mistakes like selling out of Amazon just becuase the CEO said he wanted to do groceries instead of waiting to see what the reality was.

Agreed and no I don't think they've gone bonkers. ROCE and CROCI and all that. Just think it's going to get harder going forward. That's all.


Why do you think its going to get harder?

If anything I reckon FS portfolio is well positioned going forward given the high valuations we have seen in general markets; I suspect being concerned about valuations is going to matter.

FS holdings do not appear that expensive vs. the market.


All clocks eventually strike 12.

Investing on the basis of fundamentals maybe on the cusp of a return.
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MarkSp
Posted: 18 January 2025 11:14:46(UTC)
#1963

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;330539 wrote:
But I prefer LGGG these days.


I struggle with LGGG, I don't think it is much like Fsmith. It is also heavy on Apple and Tesla both stocks I think are massive bubbles.

I sold my Fmith and put most into wtef jggi, ewsp, jegp and JAM . It was the right move in performance terms

I have started buying JEIP which is 250 US stocks with more of a value slant and less exposure to the MAG 7 especially the ones I am not keen on. JEIP/JEGP yield 6-7% and I reinvest the monthly divis they appear to be low vol ETFs with enhanced income from option writing - the price moves are certainly damped

I have 3 of the MAG 7 in my top 10 even though I don't hold any directly
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Sheerman on 18/01/2025(UTC), Newbie on 24/01/2025(UTC)
Neminem Laedit
Posted: 24 January 2025 20:36:21(UTC)
#1967

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
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(Fingers-crossed)

Fundsmith is heading for its second-best January performance on record.

+5.5%, so far...
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Newbie on 24/01/2025(UTC), Jay P on 24/01/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 24 January 2025 21:00:31(UTC)
#1968

Joined: 31/07/2023(UTC)
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Neminem Laedit;332164 wrote:
(Fingers-crossed)

Fundsmith is heading for its second-best January performance on record.

+5.5%, so far...

Interesting. According to HL Fundsmith has made 3.5% over four weeks and a smidge less than 4% over three weeks.

LGGG matches it over three weeks and is 1% ahead of FS over four weeks.

Not that anyone's counting, of course.

Edited to add - also of interest, LGGG cumulatively outperforms FS over every timescale shown at HL, mostly by almost 2x at every timescale. Fascinating.
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Neminem Laedit on 24/01/2025(UTC)
Neminem Laedit
Posted: 24 January 2025 21:20:06(UTC)
#1969

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
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FS T Acc

7.46 today (ATH, I believe)

7.07 on 31/12/2024

https://markets.ft.com/d...ical?s=GB00B4Q5X527:GBP

+ 5.516%, this month.

(the record was +9.4% in January 2013)
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OmegaMale
Posted: 24 January 2025 21:32:42(UTC)
#1970

Joined: 02/07/2020(UTC)
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Over the last 4 weeks Fundsmith is fractionally behind Vanguard FTSE Dev World ex-UK

Over the last 5 years it trails by over 30% (53.05% versus 84.99%)

(Source HL: 2 minutes ago)

That is one hell of a gap to close.

OM (Exited Fundsmith and switched into the Vanguard fund last August
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Neminem Laedit on 24/01/2025(UTC), mgk on 24/01/2025(UTC)
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