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Fundsmith Performance
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 06 July 2021 18:17:35(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Joe Soap;176055 wrote:

No doubt my response will be inadequate in some way. But I will have a go. I actually trust Smith and his team to manage the risk for me. I am not at all sure FS is hamstrung by it's processes. The back testing of the portfolio goes back several decades and the average age of the companies in the portfolio (I think) is over a 100 years old. They must be doing something right. I don't, yet at least, see anything to suggest the wheels are about to fall off the strategy adopted by Smith. You may be right. We will see soon enough. Despite my optimism, I maintain a close watch at what's going on at FS.


Only inadequate in that it doesn't actually answer the questions and is in essence saying "I don't know but I trust Terry". I hope that this works out for you, and would encourage you to endeavour to persevere.
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 06 July 2021 18:21:46(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Joe Soap;176064 wrote:

With respect, I think I am a lot more interested in what Smith has to say about liquidity and size of investment in individual companies. He has explained this many times in public.


With equal respect, this is addressing a point that I have never raised.
andy mac
Posted: 06 July 2021 18:29:58(UTC)

Joined: 12/02/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,260

Its a bit like the tennis back and forward
deuce
new balls
move on
Dan L
Posted: 06 July 2021 18:34:25(UTC)

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

Thanks: 1097 times
Was thanked: 1283 time(s) in 552 post(s)
Bulldog Drummond;176035 wrote:
Frank Marquis;176014 wrote:


The whole ethos of the fund is to buy high quality companies and do nothing, I'm not sure it's such a cutting criticism to blame them for investing in-line with their mandate. Terry Smith has highlighted the re-rating (and its transitory nature) constantly. Furthermore if re-rating is the issue I look forward to you banging that drum on every BG thread.


If it comes to BG, I sold, rightly or wrongly, my SMT, American and Discovery early this year, and posted that at the time. My question about FS is not so much as the re-rating (which is an historic fact) but about the very narrow and now potentially high-risk box (quality, expensive, mega-cap, US focus, high concentration) into which the fund is now penned and unable to escape, a question that I notice no one here seems inclined to address.


My thinking on those points.

Quality I have no problem with as that is the whole point of the fund. There are some interesting differences between the quality index though and the Fundsmith holdings. I would say around 50% overlap so there is certainly room for opinion.

Those stocks have been more highly valued for much of the last 10 years. Whether they are expensive comes down to if they deliver on the promise of future returns. Most active growth based funds seems to struggle to explain their valuation mechanisms to people. They are only expensive if they rerate heavily downwards rather than upwards.

There is a US focus but little more than your comparative Global 100 fund which is 71% US also. Seems about right although the usual point about where global companies make their revenue is still valid. The fund is not overly reliant on the US economy or government. These companies are clearly capable of playing the tax and competition game.

High concentration is a good thing in my mind.

1 user thanked Dan L for this post.
Bulldog Drummond on 06/07/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 06 July 2021 18:39:25(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

andy mac;176078 wrote:
Its a bit like the tennis back and forward
deuce
new balls
move on


It would nonetheless be interesting to see reasonable questions actually answered rather than responded to with insults or irrelevancies (hon exception to Dan L whose post coincided with this one). As no one so far seems to have been able to do so, I think I will stand by my view that this one is currently over-rated and risky. On tennis I am sure that you will enjoy the scene below from School for Scoundrels:

https://youtu.be/USW_TKQEfEA
Frank Marquis
Posted: 06 July 2021 19:26:21(UTC)

Joined: 14/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 104

Thanks: 138 times
Was thanked: 183 time(s) in 63 post(s)
Bulldog Drummond;176072 wrote:
Frank Marquis;176059 wrote:


Not my question - how much of a company do you think they can own sensibly? % wise from a liquidity standpoint? Not how much concentration in the fund. Once you answer that I'll answer your question, again not sure the snark is necessary.


This seems a bit of a red herring, and avoiding the question. I have never questioned the liquidity of FS.


Well it's not but let me answer your point:

boxed into:
quality - the fund is explicitly a quality only fund - so a really strange criticism.

expensive - in your opinion - there are also plenty of much more 'expensive' funds out there. Versus the 10 year much less so - I get this can change and can change suddenly. Key to valuation is how good the long term earnings quality of these companies is - he and his team were and are top rated analysts and the quality of analysis they publically provide is better than pretty much anything else available to retail investors. Maybe you have a deep insight in this area? Comments on Nike suggest not however.

mega-cap - c.£30bn fund - c.30 positions - £1bn a position - say max 5% ownership of a company for liquidity - min market cap would be £20bn this gives 700 or global companies to choose from of which the company invests in 30, this is hardly 'boxed in'.

US focus - as above all of these companies could be UK based it's an active choice that 72% are US based. Furthermore I'm not sure why country of listing is an issue - it tells you very little about where earnings come from especially for bigger companies.
1 user thanked Frank Marquis for this post.
Tim D on 06/07/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 06 July 2021 19:34:24(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Frank Marquis;176081 wrote:


Well it's not but let me answer your point:

boxed into:
quality - the fund is explicitly a quality only fund - so a really strange criticism.


While you have indeed described the fund, I don't think that you have actually answered (or perhaps even understood) my questions. NB you have certainly misunderstood my point about expensive - this was about the underlying holdings not about fund fees (albeit the fund fees are in my view excessive).
Joe Soap
Posted: 06 July 2021 20:03:18(UTC)

Joined: 24/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 2,157

Bulldog Drummond;176080 wrote:
andy mac;176078 wrote:
Its a bit like the tennis back and forward
deuce
new balls
move on


It would nonetheless be interesting to see reasonable questions actually answered rather than responded to with insults or irrelevancies (hon exception to Dan L whose post coincided with this one). As no one so far seems to have been able to do so, I think I will stand by my view that this one is currently over-rated and risky. On tennis I am sure that you will enjoy the scene below from School for Scoundrels:

https://youtu.be/USW_TKQEfEA

I think I may have said this before, but I encourage you and others to write with your views to Smith and ask that the questions are included in the next annual shareholder meeting. Should be March 2022. Ask interesting enough questions and they stand a very good chance of being answered publicly. However, to be honest, I don't really see anything new here at all. All I see are the same things being said over and over in slightly different ways.
Joe Soap
Posted: 06 July 2021 20:08:41(UTC)

Joined: 24/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 2,157

Bulldog Drummond;176076 wrote:
Joe Soap;176064 wrote:

With respect, I think I am a lot more interested in what Smith has to say about liquidity and size of investment in individual companies. He has explained this many times in public.


With equal respect, this is addressing a point that I have never raised.

Maybe. Though many others have often raised it. It's a complete non-issue at the moment. Last year, some discretionary "wealth managers" removed FS from portfolios on the basis that the fund was too big and maybe dangerously illiquid. Their clients should be bl**dy fuming about that and sack the "wealth manager".
Frank Marquis
Posted: 06 July 2021 20:10:16(UTC)

Joined: 14/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 104

Thanks: 138 times
Was thanked: 183 time(s) in 63 post(s)
Bulldog Drummond;176084 wrote:
Frank Marquis;176081 wrote:


Well it's not but let me answer your point:

boxed into:
quality - the fund is explicitly a quality only fund - so a really strange criticism.


While you have indeed described the fund, I don't think that you have actually answered (or perhaps even understood) my questions. NB you have certainly misunderstood my point about expensive - this was about the underlying holdings not about fund fees (albeit the fund fees are in my view excessive).


Nope - though to be honest no idea what boxed into quality means - to critique a quality fund.

Expensive - all was regarding valuation of underlying holdings (not fund fee), could have added 10 year yield to make it clearer.

Notable you've not responded to (or perhaps understood) the rest of it.
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