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Aminatidi
Posted: 04 December 2021 19:28:33(UTC)
#995

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865
mark spurrier;197936 wrote:
I think an II research account gives you access to the Mstar portfolio tool


Unfortunately not.

The Morningstar x-ray seems to flit between working and not working but I think the default is it isn't meant to but sometimes they stuff up and make it publicly available for free.
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Andrew59
Posted: 04 December 2021 22:54:40(UTC)
#983

Joined: 20/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 532

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ANDREW FOSTER;197880 wrote:

Not sure where I will put it thought yet.



Terry Smith raises this point in the IC interview.
It can be easy to withdraw funds but the deployment issue remains.

I understand your concern about some of the holdings but I do things his explanation of the Amazon holding is enlightening ie looking at the company through a different lens.

I've not been overly concerned about fund size but I am looking to increase my position in Smithson because of its' lower cap leanings.

It is interesting that a number of posters whose views I respect seem to be concerned about FS.
Not sure how much group think there is here..
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2 users thanked Andrew59 for this post.
Jesse M on 05/12/2021(UTC), Aminatidi on 05/12/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 05 December 2021 07:46:04(UTC)
#989

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865
Andrew59;197999 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;197880 wrote:

Not sure where I will put it thought yet.



Terry Smith raises this point in the IC interview.
It can be easy to withdraw funds but the deployment issue remains.

I understand your concern about some of the holdings but I do things his explanation of the Amazon holding is enlightening ie looking at the company through a different lens.

I've not been overly concerned about fund size but I am looking to increase my position in Smithson because of its' lower cap leanings.

It is interesting that a number of posters whose views I respect seem to be concerned about FS.
Not sure how much group think there is here..


I hold Fundsmith and Smithson.

I often wonder if the Sustainable Fundsmith offering might be an option for people concerned about fund size of the main Fundsmith fund.

Looking at the holdings it doesn't seem massively different though other than the obvious sustainable angle which does make me wonder how justified the fund size concerns are especially when you consider it's a global fund and all the things Terry Smith has already explained.
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2 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Andrew59 on 05/12/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 05/12/2021(UTC)
Dan L
Posted: 05 December 2021 18:53:44(UTC)
#996

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

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I'm not expecting everyone to plough through the details of the quarterlies but don't people at least keep track of the headline financials of at least some of the companies that their funds are invested in. I get the feeling not based on some comments..
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1 user thanked Dan L for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 05/12/2021(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 05 December 2021 19:20:29(UTC)
#984

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,097
Andrew59;197999 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;197880 wrote:

Not sure where I will put it thought yet.



Terry Smith raises this point in the IC interview.
It can be easy to withdraw funds but the deployment issue remains.

I understand your concern about some of the holdings but I do things his explanation of the Amazon holding is enlightening ie looking at the company through a different lens.

.


His view on Amazon may be enlightening. He's hardly likely to be running it down having just added it!

But having spent a long time with the diametric opposite view of it, and watched it rise and rise, he maybe isn't looking as smart as some believe. His reasons for not buying it when it was a lower price...have they gone away?

If he stood up and said "I missed the boat on Amazon, too late to buy in now, so I'm going to buy XYZ instead" then it would have a bit more credibility IMHO.

Each to his own of course, but for me it's starting to look distinctly stale. I'm going to slowly, gently wind it down and move somewhere with perhaps greater future growth prospects.
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Dan L
Posted: 05 December 2021 19:31:14(UTC)
#985

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;198060 wrote:
Andrew59;197999 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;197880 wrote:

Not sure where I will put it thought yet.



Terry Smith raises this point in the IC interview.
It can be easy to withdraw funds but the deployment issue remains.

I understand your concern about some of the holdings but I do things his explanation of the Amazon holding is enlightening ie looking at the company through a different lens.

.


His view on Amazon may be enlightening. He's hardly likely to be running it down having just added it!

But having spent a long time with the diametric opposite view of it, and watched it rise and rise, he maybe isn't looking as smart as some believe. His reasons for not buying it when it was a lower price...have they gone away?

If he stood up and said "I missed the boat on Amazon, too late to buy in now, so I'm going to buy XYZ instead" then it would have a bit more credibility IMHO.

Each to his own of course, but for me it's starting to look distinctly stale. I'm going to slowly, gently wind it down and move somewhere with perhaps greater future growth prospects.




I would say that what changed the situation was covid. Before 2020 cloud adoption was moving along nicely but since lockdown hit it has rocketed. Amazons profits have tripled on the back of it yet its share price has only gone up around 60%. Its a very different proposition than it was.
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2 users thanked Dan L for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 05/12/2021(UTC), Harland Kearney on 06/12/2021(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 05 December 2021 21:38:54(UTC)
#986

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,097
Dan L;198062 wrote:


I would say that what changed the situation was covid. Before 2020 cloud adoption was moving along nicely but since lockdown hit it has rocketed. Amazons profits have tripled on the back of it yet its share price has only gone up around 60%. Its a very different proposition than it was.


But that's rather the point. The share price hasn't risen in sympathy.

I guess that's because those profit rises were expected and priced in. As are further profit rises no doubt, hence the high P/E.

I'd say high growth is already in the price and hence it will continue to drift modestly up but below general market rises.

At 6.3% YTD it's lower than CGAR, yet way higher risk. I'm sticking to my view I think. Grass is looking greener elsewhere.
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Tim D on 06/12/2021(UTC)
mark spurrier
Posted: 06 December 2021 06:49:54(UTC)
#997

Joined: 17/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,696

Thanks: 178 times
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I think Amazon and MSFT are cruising for a bruising on Cloud. The Cloud doesn't exist it is really a consumption based pricing model on physical data centres.

The question for me is about the pricing model, monopolistic practices and monopolistic margins.

As the amount of platform specific tooling increases, many companies are becoming boiled frogs. Hosting costs are rocketing, platform lockins due to technology are getting increasingly tight and, the hyperscalers are cross subsiding offerings to drive out competition.

there are some use cases where consumption based pricing is a great idea. There are many other use cases where it does little more than increase costs as the spend is notoriously difficult to control.

there is massive competition between the hyperscalers but that is in the area of what they will contribute to get companies on to their platform - once they are on, and locked in, they are sheep to be fleeced.

It is only a matter of time before the regulators step in
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Tim D on 06/12/2021(UTC)
Dan L
Posted: 06 December 2021 08:13:31(UTC)
#998

Joined: 29/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 804

Thanks: 1097 times
Was thanked: 1283 time(s) in 552 post(s)
mark spurrier;198075 wrote:
I think Amazon and MSFT are cruising for a bruising on Cloud. The Cloud doesn't exist it is really a consumption based pricing model on physical data centres.

The question for me is about the pricing model, monopolistic practices and monopolistic margins.

As the amount of platform specific tooling increases, many companies are becoming boiled frogs. Hosting costs are rocketing, platform lockins due to technology are getting increasingly tight and, the hyperscalers are cross subsiding offerings to drive out competition.

there are some use cases where consumption based pricing is a great idea. There are many other use cases where it does little more than increase costs as the spend is notoriously difficult to control.

there is massive competition between the hyperscalers but that is in the area of what they will contribute to get companies on to their platform - once they are on, and locked in, they are sheep to be fleeced.

It is only a matter of time before the regulators step in





Yes, I think the lock in risk is very real. On the face of it when you migrate an existing application to the main cloud platforms it feels pretty generic and portable. A virtual machine runs anywhere - a container based application the same. They all support the baseline infrastructure to enable this.

However once you start creating new cloud native applications the lock in decisions start. Who's database tech do you use? How about the messaging system between them or the AIs used to improve the workflow?

The consumption model is not as good for cloud providers during an economic downturn but Microsoft and Google do have plenty of subscription revenue to fall back on - Amazon less so.

I think Microsoft and Amazon will definitely come under threat of break up over the coming years
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Monty Claret
Posted: 06 December 2021 08:53:48(UTC)
#987

Joined: 24/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 294

Thanks: 1393 times
Was thanked: 644 time(s) in 195 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;198064 wrote:
Dan L;198062 wrote:


I would say that what changed the situation was covid. Before 2020 cloud adoption was moving along nicely but since lockdown hit it has rocketed. Amazons profits have tripled on the back of it yet its share price has only gone up around 60%. Its a very different proposition than it was.


But that's rather the point. The share price hasn't risen in sympathy.

I guess that's because those profit rises were expected and priced in. As are further profit rises no doubt, hence the high P/E.

I'd say high growth is already in the price and hence it will continue to drift modestly up but below general market rises.

At 6.3% YTD it's lower than CGAR, yet way higher risk. I'm sticking to my view I think. Grass is looking greener elsewhere.



Morningstar is showing YTD

FS 17.78
SMT 15.34
CGAR 8.28
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3 users thanked Monty Claret for this post.
Joe Soap on 06/12/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 06/12/2021(UTC), Tim D on 08/12/2021(UTC)
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