Quote:If the conflict in Ukraine was to end right now, it would take years for the world to return to any resemblance of normality. In Ukraine alone, their grain harvest is in a mess, price of food products will still be high,
Food products may not go back to ‘normal’ in such circumstances, but a number are already falling and some back to pre-war prices. Clearly Russia is stealing and selling grain from east ukraine into the world market. The EU is trying to ship grain out of the bulging ukraine warehouses. It also seems prospects for some harvests look good (away from ukraine). Even if food prices are still high next year, as long as they are not higher or are somewhat lower that will be highly disinflationary.
Oil & Gas are the biggest issue, especially with the fire at the US LNG plant (which might be Russian action) which means they cant liquify and export all their gas - gas price in the US is falling while in Europe it rises. Oil price is being hugely exacerbated by (1) lack of refining capacity, and (2) the huge appreciation in the dollar. Oil was $110 a barrel some years back and the world survived but petrol was £1.40 a litre then, now it is £1.90 with the same oil price because of (1) and (2).
Hopefully there are some oil producers eager to pump more at today’s high prices and there will be huge political pressure on US producers. Unfortunately I think senile Biden cancelled a pipeline to Canada. The other factor is China as they are buying Russian oil at a discount - will they hoard it, or effectively use it so it remains part of the world supply.
UK urgently need to raise interest rates - a 1% rise immediately to bolster the £. But the BoE is politically captured and run by an incompetent so it won’t happen. Doing the wrong thing in the short term will cost the Tories any chance at the next election but they remain run by donkeys.
We need rid of all the woke WEF poodle leaders - Macron, Trudeau, Rutte, Van der Leyen, etc